1
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[Miles] Um, and that's when I realized the waiting itself was already changing

2
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[Miles] how I ran the company.

3
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[Miles] That's Nadia mid-sentence, ten days before YC's Fall Twenty Twenty-Six decision date.

4
00:00:12,259 --> 00:00:13,660
[Grant] Uh, we ask what came next.

5
00:00:13,919 --> 00:00:16,419
[Grant] She just stopped, sat with it before she answered.

6
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[Miles] That pause stayed in the edit.

7
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[Grant] I'm Grant.

8
00:00:19,280 --> 00:00:20,039
[Miles] I'm Miles.

9
00:00:20,120 --> 00:00:21,679
[Miles] This is Year One.

10
00:00:21,780 --> 00:00:24,620
[Grant] One founder, one decision, ten days on the clock.

11
00:00:25,179 --> 00:00:29,679
[Miles] Best Startup says on-time Fall Twenty Twenty-Six applicants get a decision by

12
00:00:29,739 --> 00:00:33,759
[Miles] August Twenty-Eighth, and Nadia's whole seed round might be hanging on that

13
00:00:33,840 --> 00:00:34,570
[Miles] single letter.

14
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[Grant] We push on whether ten days is a real bet or a

15
00:00:37,899 --> 00:00:40,380
[Grant] formality she's dressed up as suspense.

16
00:00:40,420 --> 00:00:43,869
[Miles] Then I go through exactly what she built and cut in her

17
00:00:43,920 --> 00:00:44,799
[Miles] last four weeks.

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00:00:44,939 --> 00:00:45,030
[Grant] Mm-hmm.

19
00:00:45,070 --> 00:00:48,380
[Miles] And Grant catches a revenue number that doesn't sit right.

20
00:00:48,439 --> 00:00:51,100
[Grant] Yeah, I wanna know if her roadmap was built for customers or

21
00:00:51,200 --> 00:00:52,820
[Grant] for three partners in a room.

22
00:00:53,320 --> 00:00:56,380
[Miles] Later, the path she hasn't planned for at all.

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00:00:56,759 --> 00:00:57,520
[Grant] Rejection.

24
00:00:57,719 --> 00:00:59,700
[Grant] What it actually costs her while she waits.

25
00:01:00,100 --> 00:01:04,390
[Miles] Plus, a YC partner's read on founders who've sat exactly where she's

26
00:01:04,439 --> 00:01:04,700
[Miles] sitting.

27
00:01:05,180 --> 00:01:06,319
[Grant] All right, back to Nadia.

28
00:01:06,659 --> 00:01:09,299
[Grant] Ten days in, still waiting.

29
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[Miles] The on-time deadline for Fall twenty twenty-six was July twenty-seventh, eight PM

30
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[Miles] Pacific.

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00:01:15,500 --> 00:01:16,290
[Miles] I've got it locked.

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[Grant] I'm Grant.

33
00:01:18,099 --> 00:01:21,849
[Grant] And Nadia, walk me through the math on that pause, because Tuesday,

34
00:01:22,040 --> 00:01:24,379
[Grant] August eighteenth, that's today.

35
00:01:24,459 --> 00:01:27,879
[Miles] Everyone who hit that gets a decision by August twenty-eighth.

36
00:01:27,959 --> 00:01:30,280
[Grant] Which puts you at exactly ten days out.

37
00:01:30,640 --> 00:01:33,680
[Miles] Zyners coverage of the deadline calendar says the same thing.

38
00:01:34,120 --> 00:01:37,469
[Miles] August twenty-eighth, hard promise for on-time applicants.

39
00:01:37,959 --> 00:01:40,980
[Miles] So that date isn't a guess, it's a real countdown.

40
00:01:41,019 --> 00:01:42,340
[Grant] Here's what I wanna know.

41
00:01:42,379 --> 00:01:44,519
[Grant] Did you already have your interview?

42
00:01:44,560 --> 00:01:49,150
[Miles] Some prep guides describe most YC decisions landing the same day as

43
00:01:49,180 --> 00:01:50,140
[Miles] that call.

44
00:01:50,180 --> 00:01:51,829
[Miles] Same day, phone or email.

45
00:01:52,269 --> 00:01:55,280
[Grant] So August twenty-eighth isn't a formality for you.

46
00:01:55,340 --> 00:01:55,579
[Miles] Mm-hmm.

47
00:01:55,980 --> 00:01:57,579
[Miles] No signal at all?

48
00:01:57,659 --> 00:02:01,319
[Grant] Two weeks reading tea leaves off a churn question.

49
00:02:01,359 --> 00:02:02,079
[Grant] I'll say it plain.

50
00:02:02,430 --> 00:02:06,329
[Grant] We've spent three episodes on this show building towards this exact moment,

51
00:02:06,719 --> 00:02:09,340
[Grant] and anticipation is not a business strategy.

52
00:02:09,379 --> 00:02:10,758
[Grant] It doesn't ship product.

53
00:02:10,800 --> 00:02:12,560
[Grant] It doesn't close customers.

54
00:02:12,599 --> 00:02:14,560
[Miles] Which is really the question, isn't it?

55
00:02:14,860 --> 00:02:17,740
[Miles] Not what happens on the twenty-eighth, but what you did with the

56
00:02:17,800 --> 00:02:21,000
[Miles] ten days before it, and the eighteen you've already burned.

57
00:02:21,219 --> 00:02:21,560
[Miles] Right.

58
00:02:21,639 --> 00:02:24,560
[Grant] Four weeks total, interview to decision.

59
00:02:24,879 --> 00:02:28,400
[Grant] That's a full month of runway either spent building or spent staring

60
00:02:28,419 --> 00:02:29,139
[Grant] at an inbox.

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00:02:29,680 --> 00:02:30,919
[Miles] Let's look at it together.

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00:02:32,080 --> 00:02:36,099
[Miles] So four weeks between submitting and August twenty-eighth.

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[Miles] Nadia, walk me through what actually got built in that window.

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00:02:40,060 --> 00:02:41,120
[Grant] And be specific.

65
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[Grant] Not a lot of progress.

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[Miles] Right.

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[Miles] Because in the interview, she said something like, "We grew fast," and

68
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[Miles] that phrase alone should set off alarms.

69
00:02:50,379 --> 00:02:51,539
[Grant] Fast compared to what?

70
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[Grant] Zero customers to one customer is technically infinite growth.

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00:02:56,300 --> 00:02:57,379
[Miles] Exactly.

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[Miles] Here's what I wanna know.

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[Miles] What did she stop working on to make room for whatever she

74
00:03:02,360 --> 00:03:02,919
[Miles] did ship?

75
00:03:03,580 --> 00:03:04,819
[Grant] That's the real audit.

76
00:03:05,020 --> 00:03:07,139
[Grant] Not the highlight reel, the trade-offs.

77
00:03:07,939 --> 00:03:12,310
[Miles] Zyners July fifth piece on the YC deadline calendar actually gets into

78
00:03:12,360 --> 00:03:12,549
[Miles] this.

79
00:03:12,729 --> 00:03:12,810
[Grant] Mm-hmm.

80
00:03:13,030 --> 00:03:17,180
[Miles] Their guidance is to send concise, metric-driven updates every few weeks after

81
00:03:17,259 --> 00:03:17,819
[Miles] you apply.

82
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[Grant] Metric-driven, not vibes.

83
00:03:20,900 --> 00:03:21,240
[Miles] Right.

84
00:03:21,439 --> 00:03:26,080
[Miles] User growth, engagement, signups, something with a number attached, not things are

85
00:03:26,139 --> 00:03:26,659
[Miles] going well.

86
00:03:27,400 --> 00:03:29,479
[Grant] So did Nadia's updates read like that?

87
00:03:29,860 --> 00:03:33,039
[Grant] Or did they read like a highlight reel written for three specific

88
00:03:33,099 --> 00:03:33,479
[Grant] readers?

89
00:03:34,169 --> 00:03:35,580
[Miles] That's the question, isn't it?

90
00:03:35,620 --> 00:03:39,039
[Miles] Because a shipping log built for partners looks different than one built

91
00:03:39,080 --> 00:03:39,859
[Miles] for customers.

92
00:03:40,539 --> 00:03:40,990
[Grant] It does.

93
00:03:41,419 --> 00:03:44,699
[Grant] One optimizes for what impresses a stranger reading fast.

94
00:03:45,030 --> 00:03:47,699
[Grant] The other optimizes for whether anyone pays you.

95
00:03:48,400 --> 00:03:50,120
[Miles] And you can usually tell.

96
00:03:50,180 --> 00:03:52,599
[Miles] The partner-facing version has round numbers.

97
00:03:52,960 --> 00:03:55,020
[Miles] Fifty users, ten thousand in revenue.

98
00:03:55,669 --> 00:03:59,419
[Grant] Wait, did she actually say ten thousand, or did she round up

99
00:03:59,460 --> 00:04:01,129
[Grant] from something like eighty-three hundred?

100
00:04:01,960 --> 00:04:03,979
[Miles] She said about ten thousand.

101
00:04:04,719 --> 00:04:06,500
[Grant] About ten thousand.

102
00:04:07,259 --> 00:04:07,439
[Miles] Yeah.

103
00:04:08,219 --> 00:04:08,979
[Grant] Okay.

104
00:04:09,159 --> 00:04:11,580
[Grant] So here's the part nobody wants to sit with.

105
00:04:12,060 --> 00:04:15,960
[Grant] What's the plan if the reader she optimized for says no?

106
00:04:16,060 --> 00:04:20,050
[Miles] If the partners pass, does any of that roadmap survive contact with

107
00:04:20,160 --> 00:04:21,220
[Miles] actual customers?

108
00:04:21,939 --> 00:04:25,300
[Grant] Because a plan built for one reader and one deadline isn't really

109
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[Grant] a plan.

110
00:04:26,120 --> 00:04:26,759
[Grant] It's a pitch.

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[Miles] And she didn't have an answer for that, not really.

112
00:04:30,860 --> 00:04:31,680
[Grant] No, she didn't.

113
00:04:32,839 --> 00:04:34,538
[Grant] Every episode, we skip this part.

114
00:04:34,819 --> 00:04:36,519
[Grant] What happens the week after a no?

115
00:04:37,000 --> 00:04:38,879
[Miles] We've never actually sat in that room.

116
00:04:39,240 --> 00:04:39,860
[Grant] Let's sit in it.

117
00:04:40,459 --> 00:04:43,600
[Grant] Best Startup US has decisions landing August twenty-eighth.

118
00:04:44,139 --> 00:04:46,279
[Grant] Nobody talks about the odds behind that letter.

119
00:04:46,839 --> 00:04:48,060
[Miles] So what are the odds?

120
00:04:48,540 --> 00:04:51,620
[Grant] Estimates put the overall acceptance rate near one percent.

121
00:04:51,980 --> 00:04:55,759
[Grant] And for the S25 batch specifically, reports pegged it at zero

122
00:04:55,899 --> 00:04:56,959
[Grant] point six percent.

123
00:04:57,329 --> 00:04:58,120
[Miles] That's rough.

124
00:04:58,579 --> 00:05:00,949
[Grant] But once you're actually in an interview, it flips.

125
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[Grant] Somewhere between twenty and thirty percent of interviewed teams walk away with

126
00:05:05,149 --> 00:05:05,579
[Grant] an offer.

127
00:05:05,959 --> 00:05:08,860
[Miles] So the written application is doing almost all of the cutting.

128
00:05:09,339 --> 00:05:12,139
[Grant] Ninety-nine out of a hundred never even get a video call.

129
00:05:12,420 --> 00:05:12,430
[Miles] Right.

130
00:05:12,540 --> 00:05:15,519
[Miles] I've seen this with collectors chasing one lot at auction instead of

131
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[Miles] building a bench of options.

132
00:05:17,160 --> 00:05:17,879
[Miles] Same instinct.

133
00:05:18,259 --> 00:05:19,399
[Grant] Same math problem too.

134
00:05:19,920 --> 00:05:23,060
[Grant] If Nadia is in that ten-day window, she already cleared the hardest

135
00:05:23,139 --> 00:05:23,459
[Grant] filter.

136
00:05:23,839 --> 00:05:26,468
[Miles] Which puts her in the group that still has seventy to eighty

137
00:05:26,540 --> 00:05:28,259
[Miles] percent odds of hearing no.

138
00:05:28,339 --> 00:05:28,920
[Grant] Right.

139
00:05:28,939 --> 00:05:31,819
[Grant] And when we asked her earlier, she never really answered what that

140
00:05:31,860 --> 00:05:32,699
[Grant] looks like.

141
00:05:32,740 --> 00:05:33,300
[Miles] She didn't.

142
00:05:33,339 --> 00:05:33,370
[Grant] Mm.

143
00:05:33,680 --> 00:05:34,480
[Grant] So here's the gap.

144
00:05:34,959 --> 00:05:38,180
[Grant] Monday, August thirty-first, three days after the letter.

145
00:05:38,560 --> 00:05:40,379
[Grant] What does that morning actually look like?

146
00:05:40,899 --> 00:05:42,199
[Miles] She hasn't built that plan.

147
00:05:42,639 --> 00:05:43,879
[Grant] Nobody's making her build it.

148
00:05:44,100 --> 00:05:46,100
[Grant] We are, right now, without her in the room.

149
00:05:46,560 --> 00:05:48,300
[Miles] What does reapplying even look like?

150
00:05:48,759 --> 00:05:52,079
[Grant] Every interviewed team gets written feedback, win or lose.

151
00:05:52,100 --> 00:05:56,250
[Grant] And YC's own guidance says reapplying with real progress since the last

152
00:05:56,339 --> 00:05:57,459
[Grant] round is common.

153
00:05:57,540 --> 00:05:59,720
[Miles] And the next batch isn't a year away.

154
00:05:59,779 --> 00:06:01,060
[Grant] Four cycles a year.

155
00:06:01,199 --> 00:06:03,939
[Grant] Worst case, she's back in front of partners in three months.

156
00:06:04,372 --> 00:06:05,851
[Miles] That's the reassuring version.

157
00:06:06,172 --> 00:06:08,612
[Grant] It is, but nobody's running the other math.

158
00:06:08,951 --> 00:06:11,812
[Grant] If she'd opened an angel round back in July instead of waiting

159
00:06:11,872 --> 00:06:12,531
[Grant] on one letter-

160
00:06:12,971 --> 00:06:15,651
[Miles] She'd have two months of investor meetings banked by now

161
00:06:16,151 --> 00:06:19,312
[Grant] Even a modest pace, three or four calls a week, that's twenty

162
00:06:19,411 --> 00:06:20,432
[Grant] plus conversations.

163
00:06:20,771 --> 00:06:23,651
[Grant] Maybe a term sheet on the table no matter what YC says.

164
00:06:24,072 --> 00:06:26,372
[Miles] Instead, it's one door and a countdown clock.

165
00:06:26,851 --> 00:06:28,911
[Grant] One shot, zero backup in motion.

166
00:06:29,232 --> 00:06:31,891
[Grant] That's a distribution problem, not just a rejection risk.

167
00:06:32,351 --> 00:06:35,591
[Miles] So maybe the real question isn't whether YC says yes.

168
00:06:35,632 --> 00:06:38,651
[Grant] It's why she only built one road to get there, and that's

169
00:06:38,692 --> 00:06:43,331
[Grant] the exact fork the partners watched play out hundreds of times.

170
00:06:43,432 --> 00:06:46,562
[Miles] Every partner I've heard talk about this window says the same thing.

171
00:06:46,971 --> 00:06:50,211
[Miles] The ten days don't create the freeze, they just expose it.

172
00:06:50,331 --> 00:06:51,971
[Grant] Meaning what exactly?

173
00:06:52,072 --> 00:06:55,711
[Miles] Meaning founders who already know their next move, yes or no, keep

174
00:06:55,752 --> 00:06:56,120
[Miles] shipping.

175
00:06:56,432 --> 00:06:58,492
[Miles] The ones who don't, stall.

176
00:06:58,572 --> 00:07:02,312
[Miles] YC partners describe watching hundreds of teams sit in this exact spot

177
00:07:02,372 --> 00:07:04,771
[Miles] each cycle, and the split shows up fast.

178
00:07:05,451 --> 00:07:07,891
[Grant] So Nadia is the second group.

179
00:07:08,052 --> 00:07:09,091
[Miles] I'm not saying that.

180
00:07:09,172 --> 00:07:12,372
[Miles] I'm saying the pattern partners describe is founders who treat the wait

181
00:07:12,432 --> 00:07:14,951
[Miles] as data collection keep talking to customers.

182
00:07:15,302 --> 00:07:18,672
[Miles] Founders who treat it as a verdict stop building and start refreshing

183
00:07:18,752 --> 00:07:19,041
[Miles] email.

184
00:07:19,651 --> 00:07:22,732
[Grant] Which is exactly the trap Nadia is in right now.

185
00:07:22,831 --> 00:07:25,072
[Miles] Here's something that changes the math on her side, though.

186
00:07:25,471 --> 00:07:29,291
[Miles] Best Startup says the Fall 2026 batch runs October through December

187
00:07:29,372 --> 00:07:30,172
[Miles] in San Francisco.

188
00:07:30,711 --> 00:07:34,172
[Grant] Okay, but the batch starting in October doesn't matter if the money

189
00:07:34,182 --> 00:07:35,932
[Grant] shows up in October too.

190
00:07:35,992 --> 00:07:36,672
[Miles] It doesn't.

191
00:07:36,771 --> 00:07:40,552
[Miles] YC's own deal page says they invest the day a company's accepted,

192
00:07:40,612 --> 00:07:41,891
[Miles] not when the batch starts.

193
00:07:41,971 --> 00:07:43,732
[Miles] No milestones, no waiting.

194
00:07:43,971 --> 00:07:46,541
[Grant] Wait, so if she gets the yes on the twenty-eighth-

195
00:07:47,132 --> 00:07:49,762
[Miles] The wire process starts basically immediately.

196
00:07:49,812 --> 00:07:52,721
[Miles] That's real cash, weeks before the program even kicks off

197
00:07:53,351 --> 00:07:55,951
[Grant] Which changes what her August looks like completely.

198
00:07:56,552 --> 00:07:57,041
[Grant] Talk numbers.

199
00:07:57,172 --> 00:07:58,932
[Grant] What's the actual deal she'd be signing?

200
00:07:59,572 --> 00:08:01,711
[Miles] Standard terms, same for every company.

201
00:08:02,031 --> 00:08:05,492
[Miles] A hundred and twenty-five thousand for seven percent on a priced SAFE

202
00:08:05,591 --> 00:08:09,851
[Miles] plus three hundred and seventy-five thousand on an uncapped SAFE with an

203
00:08:09,992 --> 00:08:10,831
[Miles] MFN clause.

204
00:08:11,432 --> 00:08:14,851
[Grant] MFN meaning it rides whatever terms she gives her next investor.

205
00:08:15,351 --> 00:08:15,632
[Miles] Right.

206
00:08:15,891 --> 00:08:19,091
[Miles] No cap now, it converts on the best terms she offers later.

207
00:08:19,512 --> 00:08:23,771
[Miles] Half a million dollars total, non-negotiable, identical for every founder.

208
00:08:24,391 --> 00:08:27,252
[Grant] So half a million doesn't buy what it used to, though.

209
00:08:27,672 --> 00:08:30,411
[Grant] Mega-rounds are soaking up most of the venture dollars this year.

210
00:08:31,072 --> 00:08:33,251
[Miles] True, but that's not really what the check is for.

211
00:08:33,491 --> 00:08:35,991
[Miles] It's runway and a stamp, not a war chest.

212
00:08:36,231 --> 00:08:39,572
[Miles] It buys her twelve to eighteen months without chasing a bridge round

213
00:08:39,631 --> 00:08:40,511
[Miles] on bad terms.

214
00:08:41,231 --> 00:08:45,572
[Grant] So what's the thing partners say founders in Nadia's exact spot can't

215
00:08:45,611 --> 00:08:46,471
[Grant] see from inside it?

216
00:08:47,000 --> 00:08:49,922
[Miles] That the ten days feel like the whole story, and they're not

217
00:08:49,971 --> 00:08:51,532
[Miles] even the interesting part.

218
00:08:51,591 --> 00:08:55,272
[Miles] Partners have said flatly the decision on the twenty-eighth matters less than

219
00:08:55,312 --> 00:08:58,361
[Miles] what she does in the ninety days after, either direction.

220
00:08:59,192 --> 00:09:02,250
[Grant] People always say that after they already know the answer.

221
00:09:02,851 --> 00:09:05,451
[Miles] Fair, but it lines up with what we've seen.

222
00:09:05,491 --> 00:09:08,981
[Miles] Founders who got in on borrowed momentum crash inside the batch.

223
00:09:09,432 --> 00:09:13,532
[Miles] Founders who got rejected and kept building sometimes reapply stronger than half

224
00:09:13,572 --> 00:09:14,532
[Miles] the accepted class.

225
00:09:15,042 --> 00:09:18,192
[Grant] So the letter isn't the finish line either way.

226
00:09:18,272 --> 00:09:21,312
[Miles] That's the piece Nadia is missing right now from where she's standing.

227
00:09:21,351 --> 00:09:24,392
[Grant] Then let's actually map what those two Mondays look like for her,

228
00:09:24,711 --> 00:09:26,011
[Grant] the yes and the no.

229
00:09:27,091 --> 00:09:30,111
[Miles] Spilling on that math, let's map the actual paths.

230
00:09:30,392 --> 00:09:31,831
[Miles] Concrete, not hypothetical.

231
00:09:32,591 --> 00:09:33,272
[Grant] Okay.

232
00:09:33,312 --> 00:09:34,491
[Grant] Day one of a yes.

233
00:09:35,182 --> 00:09:39,871
[Miles] Video call, group partner assigned, and Nadia's suddenly one of maybe two

234
00:09:39,932 --> 00:09:42,211
[Miles] hundred founders on the same three-month clock.

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[Grant] Day one of a no.

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[Miles] Structurally, almost nothing changes except the five hundred K never lands, and

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[Miles] she's sourcing capital cold, alone.

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[Grant] Which means the ninety days after look nearly identical either way.

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[Grant] Ship, talk to customers, fix the roadmap I caught her padding.

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[Miles] So the real test isn't the twenty-eighth, it's day three of whichever

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[Miles] path she's actually standing in.

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[Grant] We already have her on tape saying it herself.

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[Miles] Let's hear it.

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[Miles] So that's where Nadia sits right now.

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[Miles] Ten days out, one letter, and a business she's steering around it.

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[Grant] That line stuck with me.

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[Grant] The wait is making decisions for me now.

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[Miles] And you called it anticipation is not a business strategy.

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[Grant] I'll stand by that, even knowing how hard it is to build

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[Grant] like nothing's coming.

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[Miles] If you know a founder living through their own version of this,

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[Miles] send them our way, yearone@heymatto.com.

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[Grant] And if this one landed, leave a review.

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[Grant] It matters more than you think.

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[Miles] Before we wrapped, we asked Nadia what she does at eight PM

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[Miles] on the twenty-eighth, whichever way it goes.

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[Grant] And?

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[Miles] And I'm quoting, "At eight O one, I open the laptop.

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[Miles] Yes or no, there's still a company to run."