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[Rush Lindell] You know what nobody wants to say out loud?

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[Rush Lindell] Everyone's staring at the Senate like it's the whole ball game,

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[Rush Lindell] and meanwhile,

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[Rush Lindell] the real action is happening one floor down, in the House,

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[Rush Lindell] where Speaker Johnson is working with a margin so thin you could fold it into a napkin.

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[Rush Lindell] Republicans hold 218 seats.

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[Rush Lindell] The Democrats need three.

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[Rush Lindell] Three seats.

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[Rush Lindell] And Hakeem Jeffries picks up the gavel.

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[Reagan] And the map just got scrambled.

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[Rush Lindell] Completely scrambled.

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[Rush Lindell] April 29th, the Supreme Court drops a Louisiana v.

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[Rush Lindell] Callais ruling—a six three Alito opinion that effectively guts Section two of the Voting Rights Act—and states treated it like a starter's pistol.

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[Reagan] Florida,

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[Reagan] Tennessee,

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[Reagan] Alabama,

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[Reagan] all moving within days—the Hill called it roiling the twenty twenty six midterms, and that's not an understatement.

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[Rush Lindell] That's generous,

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[Rush Lindell] actually.

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[Rush Lindell] We'll walk through the state by state fallout:

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[Rush Lindell] DeSantis targeting four Democratic incumbents,

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[Rush Lindell] Tennessee cracking Memphis across three rural districts.

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[Rush Lindell] It affects the potential GOP seat gains and the legal chaos still trailing every one of those maps.

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[Reagan] And we're going to get into the core debate whether redrawn maps can actually stop a wave election.

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[Reagan] Race to the W.H. had Republican House odds jump from 18.9 to 27.2 percent after the new maps,

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[Reagan] but Democrats are still around 73 percent favorites.

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[Rush Lindell] Which is the question worth asking:

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[Rush Lindell] does a map change the math?

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[Rush Lindell] Math,

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[Rush Lindell] when the environment is moving against you.

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[Reagan] twenty eighteen had an answer for that-forty one seats.

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[Rush Lindell] It did,

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[Rush Lindell] and we'll get to that argument.

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[Reagan] Plus the retirement numbers-thirty six Republican incumbents walking out the door.

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[Reagan] Ballotpedia says that's a single party record.

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[Reagan] Open seats are

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[Rush Lindell] Yeah.

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[Reagan] where majorities actually break.

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[Rush Lindell] All of that starting right now.

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[Rush Lindell] The House is where power moves in twenty twenty six.

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[Rush Lindell] First stop,

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[Rush Lindell] the ruling that started it.

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[Speaker 3] Everything.

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[Speaker 3] Before

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[Rush Lindell] Before we get into it, a quick reminder:

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[Rush Lindell] we love hearing from you.

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[Rush Lindell] If you have questions or topics you'd like us to cover,

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[Rush Lindell] head to the link in the description and submit your question.

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[Rush Lindell] We read every single one.

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[Rush Lindell] We've been watching the wrong race. This show, half of talk radio,

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[Rush Lindell] every Senate obsessive with their color-coded map-all of us have had our eyes on Senate seats while the real power play is happening in the House,

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[Rush Lindell] and I mean right now,

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[Reagan] Mm

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[Rush Lindell] today,

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[Reagan] -hmm.

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[Rush Lindell] 

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[Rush Lindell] in state legislatures that most people couldn't name if you spotted them three letters.

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[Reagan] The math is unforgiving. According to Ballotpedia,

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[Reagan] Republicans currently hold a 218-214 House majority.

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[Reagan] with Three vacancies.

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[Reagan] That's a two-seat working buffer.

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[Reagan] Democrats flip three districts,

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[Reagan] just three,

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[Reagan] and Hakeem Jeffries picks up the gavel from Speaker Johnson.

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[Speaker 3] Three seats.

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[Speaker 3] I want that to land.

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[Reagan] Yeah.

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[Speaker 3] Three.

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[Speaker 3] That's not a wave.

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[Speaker 3] That's a weather event.

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[Speaker 3] A bad Tuesday in four swing districts and the entire legislative agenda flips.

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[Speaker 3] I'm calling this thing what it is. The Gavel Watch.

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[Speaker 3] That's what we're running all episode.

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[Speaker 3] THE GAVEL WATCH

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[Reagan] And redistricting just made it more volatile,

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[Reagan] not less:

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[Reagan] ten states redrew maps for twenty twenty six; Sabato's Crystal Ball reported Republicans netted an expected gain of around six seats from redistricting,

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[Reagan] but simultaneously said the map still isn't red enough to protect them from a bad political environment.

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[Rush Lindell] So they drew themselves a better map and might still lose the House.

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[Rush Lindell] That's-

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[Rush Lindell] That's the Republican Party in a sentence.

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[Reagan] I wouldn't go that far.

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[Rush Lindell] No, but here's what actually scrambled everything.

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[Rush Lindell] April 29th, the Supreme Court drops Louisiana v.

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[Rush Lindell] Callais, a 6-3 ruling that effectively kneecaps Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act,

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[Rush Lindell] the legal guardrail that protected majority-minority districts for decades,

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[Rush Lindell] gone. And the day the ruling landed,

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[Rush Lindell] Florida passed a new redistricting bill.

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[Rush Lindell] Tennessee eliminated its only majority-minority House.

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[Rush Lindell] House district Alabama filed emergency motions to reinstate legislature drawn maps.

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[Reagan] Brookings flagged it directly; before Callais the trajectory was trending towards a Democratic wave,

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[Reagan] that ruling changed the math in Southern states almost immediately.

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[Rush Lindell] So the Senate obsession was always a distraction.

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[Rush Lindell] The House is where the country actually gets governed,

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[Rush Lindell] and right now one court ruling just reshuffled the entire board.

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[Rush Lindell] The question is,

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[Rush Lindell] what does that ruling actually do?

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[Rush Lindell] due to the constitutional framework underneath all of this.

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[Rush Lindell] So let's talk about what Callais actually did,

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[Rush Lindell] because the legal mechanics matter.

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[Rush Lindell] April twenty ninth,

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[Rush Lindell] Justice Alito writes a six three opinion that essentially catches Section two of the Voting Rights Act in a trap of its own making.

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[Reagan] Right,

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[Reagan] and the trap is interesting from a constitutional standpoint:

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[Reagan] Louisiana drew a second majority-black district because a federal court told them Section 2 required it.

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[Reagan] Then a separate court said wait.

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[Reagan] Drawing that district with race as the dominant factor is an unconstitutional racial gerrymander.

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[Rush Lindell] Louisiana got sued not to have the district,

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[Rush Lindell] then sued to have it.

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[Rush Lindell] The lawyers ate well either way.

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[Reagan] They did; but here's where I'll give the majority some credit before I say why this still feels messy.

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[Reagan] The tension between Section two and the Equal Protection Clause was real; courts were genuinely pulling in opposite directions.

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[Reagan] Alito didn't invent that problem.

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[Rush Lindell] Agreed-the Gingles framework-that's the nineteen eighty six test for proving minority vote dilution had gotten stretched in ways that were hard to defend on first principles.

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[Reagan] Right; but what Callais does now is raise the evidentiary bar so high that plaintiffs essentially have to prove intentional discrimination to win a Section two claim.

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[Reagan] Justice Kagan called it "all but a dead letter"

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[Reagan] in dissent.

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[Reagan] That's not hyperbole.

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[Speaker 3] And that's the thing that matters for this episode,

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[Speaker 3] because the Brennan Center noted the court reworked the 40-year-old Gingles standard three changes stacked together,

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[Reagan] Wow.

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[Speaker 3] and the states read that ruling like a starter's pistol.

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[Reagan] Florida passed a new map the same day the decision dropped.

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[Reagan] Tennessee moved within days.

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[Reagan] Alabama filed an emergency petition to reinstate maps a federal court had already thrown out.

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[Reagan] out.

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[Speaker 3] Within hours,

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[Speaker 3] not weeks-hours.

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[Reagan] And Louisiana,

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[Reagan] the state the whole case was named after,

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[Reagan] suspended its own primaries outright; over a hundred thousand people had already cast early votes.

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[Speaker 3] Over an ongoing election-that's where the legal story crashes into the real world,

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[Speaker 3] and that's exactly where we're going next.

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[Rush Lindell] So Florida went first and went hard.

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[Rush Lindell] DeSantis signed a new map targeting four Democratic incumbents:

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[Rush Lindell] Castor,

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[Rush Lindell] Soto,

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[Rush Lindell] Moskowitz,

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[Rush Lindell] Wasserman Schultz. Four seats,

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[Reagan] Wow!

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[Rush Lindell] Gone,

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[Rush Lindell] just like that.

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[Reagan] That's the Hill's reporting from April twenty ninth; four Democratic-held districts flipped to Republican-leaning on paper.

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[Reagan] The question is whether the math actually holds.

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[Rush Lindell] And that's a fair question,

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[Rush Lindell] Reagan,

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[Rush Lindell] deadpan,

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[Rush Lindell] because one redistricting expert at the University of

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[Rush Lindell] The State of Florida called it a plus two or plus three map if the political environment stays ugly for Republicans—could even backfire.

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[Reagan] The gerrymandering risk is real:

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[Reagan] pack your margins too thin and a wave wipes you out.

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[Rush Lindell] Jeffries already called it that,

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[Rush Lindell] out loud,

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[Rush Lindell] on camera.

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[Reagan] Bold!

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[Rush Lindell] Now Tennessee,

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[Rush Lindell] that's where it gets dark.

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[Rush Lindell] Governor Bill Lee called a special session.

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[Rush Lindell] They cracked Memphis,

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[Rush Lindell] the state's only majority black city.

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[Rush Lindell] Black District across three separate rural districts; Three,

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[Rush Lindell] Steve Cohen's seat gone.

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[Reagan] And they had to repeal a fifty year old state law just to do it.

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[Reagan] Tennessee had barred mid-decade redistricting since nineteen seventy-two.

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[Reagan] They erased that prohibition in the same session.

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[Rush Lindell] Three days they flipped fifty years of state law in three days.

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[Reagan] Look,

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[Reagan] I get why Republicans see this as a legal opening after Gingles.

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[Reagan] But cracking a majority Black city into rural white districts that stretch hundreds of miles east?

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[Reagan] That's not a clean partisan argument.

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[Reagan] That's harder to defend on the merits.

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[Rush Lindell] And here's something worth noting.

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[Rush Lindell] The ACLU, the NAACP,

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[Rush Lindell] multiple lawsuits already filed.

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[Rush Lindell] Courts are going to be sorting this out well past November.

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[Reagan] Which raises the question,

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[Reagan] how many of these seats are really locked in versus how many are just legal chaos waiting to happen?

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[Rush Lindell] Alabama,

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[Rush Lindell] Louisiana,

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[Rush Lindell] Arkansas,

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[Rush Lindell] South Carolina,

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[Rush Lindell] all moving too.

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[Rush Lindell] The total potential Republican gain from all of this redistricting?

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[Rush Lindell] Up to 19 new Republican-leaning seats if it all holds.

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[Reagan] Big if.

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[Rush Lindell] Big if.

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[Rush Lindell] But, and this is what Democrats don't want to admit,

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[Rush Lindell] they weren't exactly sitting on their hands either.

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[Rush Lindell] California,

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[Rush Lindell] Virginia,

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[Rush Lindell] Utah,

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[Rush Lindell] which is a story for about 30 seconds from now.

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[Rush Lindell] Both sides sat in that court room acting horrified-scandalized!

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[Reagan] Both parties discovered gerrymandering simultaneously-what a coincidence!

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[Rush Lindell] Right; this is the part where Republicans pretend Democrats invented it,

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[Rush Lindell] and Democrats pretend Republicans are uniquely evil for doing it,

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[Rush Lindell] both with straight faces.

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[Reagan] The Hill quoted Senator Jim Banks,

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[Reagan] Indiana Republican,

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[Reagan] saying:

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[Reagan] If both sides are doing it, you kind of have an Arms Race,

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[Reagan] which is the most honest thing anyone said about this.

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[Rush Lindell] Arms Race.

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[Rush Lindell] That is exactly right.

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[Rush Lindell] California voters approved maps targeting five Republican districts.

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[Rush Lindell] Virginia passed a Democrat-friendly map. Then the state Supreme Court threw it out post-Kalis.

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[Reagan] So Utah got a court-ordered Democratic district in Salt Lake County,

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[Reagan] so yes,

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[Reagan] both parties are at the table.

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[Reagan] TABLE.

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[Rush Lindell] And you know what nobody wants to say?

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[Rush Lindell] The Supreme Court green lit all of this back in twenty nineteen:

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[Rush Lindell] Rucho v.

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[Rush Lindell] Common Cause,

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[Rush Lindell] five four; Roberts writing that partisan gerrymandering claims are nonjudiciable; federal courts cannot touch it.

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[Reagan] Which means Congress could have fixed it.

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[Reagan] They didn't, so we got this.

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[Rush Lindell] Shocked,

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[Rush Lindell] absolutely shocked.

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[Reagan] The Arms Race was constitutionally authorized seven years ago.

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[Reagan] Go Rush,

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[Reagan] nobody's inventing anything.

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[Rush Lindell] Reagan,

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[Rush Lindell] I would like to schedule a fake press conference-both party leaders at the podium,

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[Rush Lindell] outraged,

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[Rush Lindell] somber,

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[Rush Lindell] demanding the other side stop the thing they started.

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[Reagan] I'd watch that.

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[Rush Lindell] I'd run it on a loop.

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[Rush Lindell] Look,

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[Rush Lindell] the comedy is real,

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[Rush Lindell] but so is the question underneath it:

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[Rush Lindell] more than a quarter of all congressional districts have already been redrawn mid decade.

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[Rush Lindell] Does any of that actually change who controls the chamber?

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[Reagan] That's the thing.

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[Reagan] Maps can shift individual seats. Whether they can stop a national wave is a completely different argument.

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[Rush Lindell] And that's where we're going.

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[Rush Lindell] So the maps moved the number.

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[Rush Lindell] Race to the WH had Republicans at eighteen point nine percent odds of holding the House before Florida, Tennessee and Virginia.

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[Rush Lindell] After those new maps,

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[Rush Lindell] twenty seven point two percent.

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[Rush Lindell] That's real movement.

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[Reagan] It's real,

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[Reagan] but Rush,

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[Reagan] Democrats are still sitting at roughly 73%. And that gap doesn't close by drawing lines.

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[Rush Lindell] You sound confident.

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[Reagan] I am actually.

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[Reagan] Look,

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[Reagan] political scientists have pointed out for years that

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[Reagan] But packing minority voters into fewer districts often helped Republicans in the South by bleeding Democratic votes out of the surrounding seats.

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[Reagan] Break those packs up,

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[Reagan] and some of those surrounding districts get more competitive,

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[Reagan] not less.

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[Rush Lindell] Wait,

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[Rush Lindell] you're saying the strategy could backfire?

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[Reagan] In some cases,

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[Reagan] yeah,

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[Reagan] the counterintuitive outcome is real.

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[Rush Lindell] I'll give you that.

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[Rush Lindell] That's a real wrinkle!

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[Reagan] But here's the bigger point:

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[Reagan] a wave is a wave.

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[Reagan] In 2018,

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[Reagan] Democrats gained 41 seats.

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[Rush Lindell] Wow.

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[Reagan] Forty-one.

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[Reagan] No map in any single cycle was going to stop that.

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[Rush Lindell] Okay,

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[Rush Lindell] but is 2026 a 2018?

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[Rush Lindell] Trump's approval's underwater,

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[Rush Lindell] sure.

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[Rush Lindell] Negative 21 net.

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[Rush Lindell] Special elections have broken Democratic.

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[Rush Lindell] But the Brookings analysis said it themselves.

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[Rush Lindell] Redistricting altered the outlook.

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[Rush Lindell] That's not nothing.

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[Reagan] It buys seats at the margins if Democrats need three seats and the environment gives them.

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[Reagan] and give them fifteen,

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[Reagan] the margins don't matter.

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[Rush Lindell] And if the environment gives them four?

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[Reagan] Then,

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[Reagan] yeah,

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[Reagan] every redrawn district counts.

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[Reagan] That's the real bet Republicans are making.

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[Rush Lindell] Which is why the map matters not as a wall but as a tiebreaker in a close race.

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[Rush Lindell] If twenty twenty six is a six seat Democratic environment,

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[Rush Lindell] Republicans may hold.

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[Rush Lindell] If it's a twenty seat wave,

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[Rush Lindell] no map survives.

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[Reagan] Right,

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[Reagan] and right now,

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[Reagan] nobody actually knows which one it is.

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[Reagan] This

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[Rush Lindell] Nobody does,

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[Rush Lindell] but I'll tell you what we do know.

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[Rush Lindell] The number of seats separating a Republican majority from a Democratic House is razor thin,

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[Rush Lindell] and the seat math on that, we're going there next.

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[Rush Lindell] So here's the math that should be keeping Speaker Johnson up at night:

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[Rush Lindell] Democrats need Three.

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[Rush Lindell] Three Republicans can lose no more than Two.

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[Reagan] And with Thirty-six House Republicans having announced retirement,

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[Reagan] more than the Thirty-four who walked in Twenty eighteen,

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[Reagan] the cycle Democrats flipped the chamber,

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[Reagan] that open seat vulnerability is real.

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[Reagan] The Hill reported it's already a record for single party departures.

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[Rush Lindell] That number keeps me up.

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[Rush Lindell] Thirty-six,

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[Rush Lindell] and what gets me is the pattern:

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[Rush Lindell] in Twenty eighteen,

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[Rush Lindell] Republicans lost Forty-one seats.

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[Rush Lindell] That's after that exact retirement pace.

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[Rush Lindell] History doesn't repeat,

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[Rush Lindell] but it rhymes loudly.

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[Reagan] Open seats flip at historically higher rates than challenged incumbents. No name recognition advantage,

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[Reagan] no franking mail,

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[Reagan] no constituent service record.

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[Reagan] You're starting at zero against a fired up challenger.

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[Rush Lindell] Nothing like handing your opponent a blank canvas in a blue year.

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[Reagan] And Cook Political Report is tracking Thirty-seven Republican open seats right now.

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[Reagan] Right now,

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[Reagan] even if most are safe,

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[Reagan] a handful are genuinely competitive.

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[Reagan] Nebraska,

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[Reagan] too,

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[Reagan] Don Bacon's old seat,

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[Reagan] is right there in Cook's toss-up column.

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[Rush Lindell] Arizona 1,

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[Rush Lindell] open after Schweikert ran for governor.

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[Rush Lindell] Colorado 8,

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[Rush Lindell] Gabe Evans defending in a seat that nearly flipped in 2022.

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[Rush Lindell] Pennsylvania 7,

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[Rush Lindell] Pennsylvania 10,

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[Rush Lindell] these are live races.

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[Reagan] And that's before you factor in that Decision Desk put around 45 seats total in the genuine competitive.

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[Reagan] Additive Zone-roughly one in ten districts decides who runs this country.

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[Rush Lindell] Let me land this:

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[Rush Lindell] the Senate is where the cable chyrons live; but the Gavel,

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[Rush Lindell] the agenda,

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[Rush Lindell] the budget,

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[Rush Lindell] the committee chairs-that's the House.

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[Rush Lindell] I'm holding the majority right now with a margin thinner than a single news cycle:

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[Speaker 3] Yeah.

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[Rush Lindell] three seats,

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[Rush Lindell] two losses max,

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[Rush Lindell] thirty six vacancies on my side of the aisle.

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[Reagan] And the maps we've been talking about all hour?

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[Reagan] They help at the margins.

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[Reagan] But this many open seats in this environment?

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[Rush Lindell] is exactly why the redistricting math doesn't close the deal on its own.

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[Rush Lindell] The bodies still have to show up in November.

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[Rush Lindell] So where does this all land for November?

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[Rush Lindell] Alabama's new map,

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[Rush Lindell] the one that stripped out the majority black district,

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[Rush Lindell] cleared a Supreme Court emergency order on June 2nd. Florida's map survived the Florida Supreme Court on June 10th. These things are moving fast.

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[Reagan] And yet the litigation isn't done.

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[Reagan] Florida still has an active appellate challenge under the Fair Districts Amendment.

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[Reagan] Alabama's map faces ongoing suits.

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[Reagan] A federal court could still move before November; nothing is settled.

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[Rush Lindell] Which is the honest read?

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[Rush Lindell] You watch the map,

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[Rush Lindell] you also watch the docket.

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[Speaker 4] Mm-hmm.

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[Rush Lindell] Both matter.

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[Reagan] States that couldn't finish redistricting in time for twenty twenty six primaries-some still under court ordered maps-retain the option to redraw for twenty twenty eight.

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[Reagan] The Kalli fallout doesn't end in November.

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[Rush Lindell] Right; this goes beyond one cycle,

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[Speaker 4] Mm-hmm.

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[Rush Lindell] which brings me back to the thing I said at the top of this show.

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[Reagan] The Senate Obsession

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[Rush Lindell] The Senate obsession-Everyone's running Senate polls like that's where the country's decided.

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[Rush Lindell] But,

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[Rush Lindell] Reagan,

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[Rush Lindell] the House controls the budget,

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[Rush Lindell] the House controls every committee gavel.

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[Rush Lindell] You want to know who actually runs Washington in twenty twenty seven?

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[Rush Lindell] Watch the House map.

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[Reagan] The math is brutal for Republicans:

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[Reagan] Three seats-that's Democrats'

379
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[Reagan] number-open seats from Thirty-six retirements,

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[Reagan] active litigation on the maps they were counting on.

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[Reagan] That's not a comfortable position.

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[Rush Lindell] No margin—none—and you know what nobody wants to say—the Senate majority means nothing if Hakeem Jeffries is running the floor and the Budget Committee—nothing.

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[Reagan] The Brookings piece made this point clearly:

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[Reagan] the redistricting advantage is real,

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[Reagan] but its actual electoral impact remains uncertain heading into November.

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[Reagan] That's not pessimism,

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[Reagan] that's just what the evidence supports.

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[Rush Lindell] Honest!

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[Rush Lindell] Which is rare.

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[Rush Lindell] So here's your watch list:

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[Rush Lindell] Florida appellate courts,

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[Rush Lindell] Alabama federal suits,

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[Rush Lindell] and every open-seat Republican district where there's no incumbent to carry the name.

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[Rush Lindell] That's the race.

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[Rush Lindell] That's where 2026 gets decided.

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[Reagan] Keep your eyes on the House.

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[Rush Lindell] All right, that's the show.

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[Rush Lindell] Bottom line,

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[Rush Lindell] the House is where 2026 is actually decided,

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[Rush Lindell] and the Callais ruling reshuffled every map on the board.

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[Reagan] And what's stuck with me is the math we ran:

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[Reagan] Democrats need three seats; Republicans can lose two.

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[Reagan] That's not a comfortable majority,

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[Reagan] that's a tightrope.

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[Rush Lindell] Gavel Watch is live,

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[Rush Lindell] people,

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[Rush Lindell] and those redistricted maps are still being litigated as we speak.

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[Rush Lindell] This story isn't over.

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[Reagan] It won't be over in 2026, honestly.

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[Reagan] The fallout runs into 2028.

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[Rush Lindell] Which means I'll be here,

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[Rush Lindell] covering all of it.

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[Reagan] Thanks for spending your time with us today.

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[Reagan] If this episode made you think differently about where the real power fight is,

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[Reagan] that's what we're after.

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[Rush Lindell] Subscribe, leave us a five-star review, and send this to one person who needs to hear it.

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[Rush Lindell] New episodes every weekday.

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[Reagan] See you tomorrow,

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[Reagan] Rush.

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[Rush Lindell] See you then.

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[Speaker 5] Takk for att du så med.