1 00:00:15,667 --> 00:00:16,268 [Rush Lindell] Welcome in, 2 00:00:16,367 --> 00:00:17,067 [Rush Lindell] welcome in, 3 00:00:17,167 --> 00:00:21,867 [Rush Lindell] it's the Rush Lindell Show and I've got a fresh forecast that's gonna ruin somebody's Tuesday. 4 00:00:22,367 --> 00:00:23,267 [Reagan] Only somebodies? 5 00:00:23,617 --> 00:00:25,067 [Rush Lindell] Fine; half the country's. 6 00:00:25,467 --> 00:00:28,567 [Rush Lindell] DDHQ just dropped their twenty twenty-six mid-term numbers, 7 00:00:28,917 --> 00:00:29,367 [Rush Lindell] and Reagan, 8 00:00:29,517 --> 00:00:31,167 [Rush Lindell] the House is looking blue again. 9 00:00:31,717 --> 00:00:32,617 [Reagan] Favored rush, 10 00:00:32,767 --> 00:00:34,517 [Reagan] not decided; there's a difference, 11 00:00:34,717 --> 00:00:35,767 [Reagan] and we're going to talk about it. 12 00:00:35,967 --> 00:00:36,367 [Rush Lindell] Fair? 13 00:00:36,617 --> 00:00:37,267 [Rush Lindell] But the Senate, 14 00:00:37,517 --> 00:00:38,517 [Rush Lindell] that's the real fight. 15 00:00:38,717 --> 00:00:39,517 [Rush Lindell] Fifty-fifty, 16 00:00:39,817 --> 00:00:41,917 [Rush Lindell] and JD Vance sitting there as the tiebreaker. 17 00:00:42,100 --> 00:00:43,750 [Reagan] That's the number everybody's 18 00:00:43,750 --> 00:00:44,100 [Rush Lindell] fixating on, 19 00:00:44,100 --> 00:00:44,550 [Reagan] on, 20 00:00:44,800 --> 00:00:46,550 [Reagan] and I want to know if it's actually earned. 21 00:00:46,550 --> 00:00:52,600 [Rush Lindell] it's earned-and here's the thing: we're building this whole hour around what I'm calling the Senate Firewall. 22 00:00:53,000 --> 00:00:53,900 [Reagan] You named it already? 23 00:00:54,300 --> 00:00:56,050 [Rush Lindell] I named it in the shower this morning. 24 00:00:56,350 --> 00:00:57,250 [Reagan] Of course you did. 25 00:00:57,550 --> 00:01:04,150 [Rush Lindell] We're also getting into the House math-how redistricting quietly moved some seats around before a single vote's been cast. 26 00:01:04,450 --> 00:01:05,000 [Reagan] And later, 27 00:01:05,300 --> 00:01:08,500 [Reagan] Rush is putting on a little theater with a DNC war room bit. 28 00:01:08,371 --> 00:01:10,272 [Reagan] Bit that I fully intend to ruin. 29 00:01:10,721 --> 00:01:14,421 [Rush Lindell] And we're keeping an eye on Trump's approval trend against the generic ballot cushion, 30 00:01:14,572 --> 00:01:14,721 [Rush Lindell] too. 31 00:01:15,072 --> 00:01:15,871 [Reagan] Which is shrinking, 32 00:01:16,121 --> 00:01:16,572 [Reagan] for the record. 33 00:01:16,921 --> 00:01:18,072 [Rush Lindell] She always does. 34 00:01:18,371 --> 00:01:18,921 [Rush Lindell] But first, 35 00:01:19,121 --> 00:01:21,272 [Rush Lindell] this hour is brought to you by Lear Capital, 36 00:01:21,522 --> 00:01:24,421 [Rush Lindell] America's precious metals leader since nineteen ninety seven. 37 00:01:24,822 --> 00:01:27,021 [Reagan] Good partner to have around when the polling gets shaky. 38 00:01:27,421 --> 00:01:28,471 [Rush Lindell] So grab your coffee, 39 00:01:28,721 --> 00:01:29,271 [Rush Lindell] settle in, 40 00:01:29,421 --> 00:01:30,221 [Rush Lindell] we've got Congress, 41 00:01:30,421 --> 00:01:33,671 [Rush Lindell] we've got the firewall and we've got Reagan trying to keep me honest. 42 00:01:34,121 --> 00:01:35,072 [Reagan] Somebody has to. 43 00:01:35,347 --> 00:01:39,447 [Rush Lindell] Let's start where it all begins-the forecast that's got both parties talking. 44 00:01:44,847 --> 00:01:47,147 [Rush Lindell] Before we dive in, a quick reminder: 45 00:01:47,448 --> 00:01:51,597 [Rush Lindell] we love hearing from you. If you have questions or topics you'd like us to cover, 46 00:01:51,998 --> 00:01:54,748 [Rush Lindell] head to the link in the description and submit your question. 47 00:01:54,948 --> 00:01:56,847 [Rush Lindell] We read every single one. 48 00:02:02,323 --> 00:02:04,123 [Rush Lindell] As of Reagan, 49 00:02:04,224 --> 00:02:08,774 [Rush Lindell] the Senate firewall threat we've been running all cycle just got a plot twist. 50 00:02:08,823 --> 00:02:09,723 [Reagan] Oh no, 51 00:02:09,823 --> 00:02:10,574 [Reagan] what kind of twist? 52 00:02:11,074 --> 00:02:14,473 [Rush Lindell] DDHQ dropped their first full 2026 forecast, 53 00:02:14,674 --> 00:02:18,723 [Rush Lindell] and they're giving Democrats a 61% shot at flipping the Senate, 54 00:02:19,123 --> 00:02:21,024 [Rush Lindell] 51 to 49. 55 00:02:21,524 --> 00:02:22,073 [Reagan] 61? 56 00:02:22,424 --> 00:02:24,424 [Reagan] That's not a coin flip. That's a lean. 57 00:02:24,924 --> 00:02:28,174 [Rush Lindell] Ha ha. And here's my favorite part. The House stays. 58 00:02:28,243 --> 00:02:29,144 [Rush Lindell] It's 50-50. 59 00:02:29,544 --> 00:02:35,294 [Rush Lindell] Republicans favored 57%, which means the tiebreaker's sitting right there in the vice president's chair. 60 00:02:35,593 --> 00:02:38,593 [Reagan] So Vance becomes the human firewall. 61 00:02:38,993 --> 00:02:42,044 [Rush Lindell] I was going to say Fifty-First Vote Vance, but sure, 62 00:02:42,093 --> 00:02:42,944 [Rush Lindell] we'll Workshop it. 63 00:02:43,644 --> 00:02:44,743 [Reagan] Workshop away, 64 00:02:44,843 --> 00:02:45,544 [Reagan] but Rush, 65 00:02:45,644 --> 00:02:48,644 [Reagan] 57% is not a MANDATE. 66 00:02:48,843 --> 00:02:52,144 [Reagan] That's basically a Tuesday coin flip with a slight lean. 67 00:02:52,444 --> 00:02:54,843 [Rush Lindell] It's the number DDHQ published. 68 00:02:55,044 --> 00:02:55,894 [Rush Lindell] I'm not spinning it. 69 00:02:56,231 --> 00:02:57,532 [Reagan] I'm not saying you are: 70 00:02:57,632 --> 00:03:00,931 [Reagan] I'm saying don't treat fifty seven like it's ninety five. 71 00:03:01,282 --> 00:03:03,681 [Reagan] People hear a probability and hear a promise. 72 00:03:04,231 --> 00:03:05,831 [Rush Lindell] Fair; but walk with me. 73 00:03:06,032 --> 00:03:08,382 [Rush Lindell] The generic ballot's the real tell here. 74 00:03:08,731 --> 00:03:09,382 [Reagan] It is. 75 00:03:09,731 --> 00:03:12,032 [Reagan] Democrats were up seven points back in May, 76 00:03:12,382 --> 00:03:12,932 [Rush Lindell] And now? 77 00:03:13,331 --> 00:03:15,432 [Reagan] down to roughly three and a half, 78 00:03:15,581 --> 00:03:16,132 [Reagan] maybe four. 79 00:03:16,532 --> 00:03:19,931 [Rush Lindell] That's the whole margin evaporating in real time. 80 00:03:20,431 --> 00:03:24,581 [Reagan] Which is exactly why I don't love treating either forecast number like- 81 00:03:24,340 --> 00:03:25,039 [Reagan] like gospel, 82 00:03:25,439 --> 00:03:27,740 [Reagan] the environments moving under everybody's feet. 83 00:03:27,890 --> 00:03:29,539 [Rush Lindell] But here's what gets me: 84 00:03:29,890 --> 00:03:33,740 [Rush Lindell] Democrats need almost nothing to flip this House, a handful of seats, 85 00:03:33,939 --> 00:03:36,140 [Rush Lindell] and yet the odds aren't a landslide. 86 00:03:36,490 --> 00:03:36,840 [Reagan] Right, 87 00:03:37,039 --> 00:03:41,539 [Reagan] which tells you something's propping the GOP up that the seat math alone doesn't explain. 88 00:03:41,789 --> 00:03:45,289 [Rush Lindell] So what's the safety net nobody on cable's talking about? 89 00:03:50,675 --> 00:03:51,475 [Rush Lindell] Laying in, 90 00:03:51,575 --> 00:03:52,625 [Rush Lindell] building on that math, 91 00:03:52,775 --> 00:03:55,175 [Rush Lindell] here's a number nobody on cable wants to touch: 92 00:03:55,525 --> 00:03:55,975 [Reagan] Go on. 93 00:03:56,375 --> 00:04:02,775 [Rush Lindell] DDHQ's forecast says mid decade redistricting netted Republicans roughly five extra House seats. 94 00:04:03,075 --> 00:04:03,575 [Rush Lindell] Five, 95 00:04:03,775 --> 00:04:04,975 [Rush Lindell] just from redrawn lines! 96 00:04:05,475 --> 00:04:08,875 [Reagan] So five seats before a single votes cast. 97 00:04:09,375 --> 00:04:09,975 [Rush Lindell] Exactly. 98 00:04:10,425 --> 00:04:14,375 [Rush Lindell] Democrats technically need three seats to flip that two twenty to fifteen edge, 99 00:04:14,625 --> 00:04:17,425 [Rush Lindell] but factor in the new maps and the real target's closer to. 100 00:04:17,363 --> 00:04:17,863 [Rush Lindell] After to eight. 101 00:04:18,313 --> 00:04:22,263 [Reagan] So the flip probabilities quietly pad it by geography, 102 00:04:22,663 --> 00:04:23,613 [Reagan] not persuasion. 103 00:04:24,663 --> 00:04:26,613 [Rush Lindell] I call it the insurance policy. 104 00:04:26,963 --> 00:04:27,763 [Rush Lindell] Nobody sells it, 105 00:04:27,863 --> 00:04:28,963 [Rush Lindell] nobody advertises it, 106 00:04:29,163 --> 00:04:29,713 [Rush Lindell] but it's sittin' 107 00:04:29,813 --> 00:04:31,413 [Rush Lindell] in every Republican's club box. 108 00:04:31,913 --> 00:04:32,263 [Reagan] Cute, 109 00:04:32,463 --> 00:04:35,363 [Reagan] but you're stacking two different variables like they're one. 110 00:04:35,913 --> 00:04:36,463 [Rush Lindell] Which variables? 111 00:04:37,113 --> 00:04:39,113 [Reagan] Redistricting's fixed lines. 112 00:04:39,363 --> 00:04:43,863 [Reagan] Some of this Democratic favorability could just be Trump's approval number shifting. 113 00:04:43,923 --> 00:04:45,024 [Reagan] Not the maps. 114 00:04:45,573 --> 00:04:46,024 [Rush Lindell] Come on. 115 00:04:46,373 --> 00:04:46,723 [Reagan] No, 116 00:04:46,873 --> 00:04:49,573 [Reagan] hold on-if his numbers tick up before November, 117 00:04:49,823 --> 00:04:52,173 [Reagan] does the forecast even hold the same way? 118 00:04:52,723 --> 00:04:56,024 [Rush Lindell] Fair; the maps don't move-the mood might. 119 00:04:56,423 --> 00:04:56,823 [Reagan] Right, 120 00:04:57,123 --> 00:04:57,823 [Reagan] separate them, 121 00:04:58,173 --> 00:04:59,573 [Reagan] Redistricting's the floor, 122 00:04:59,873 --> 00:05:01,123 [Reagan] approvals the wind. 123 00:05:01,651 --> 00:05:05,051 [Rush Lindell] The floor's still eight feet high—that's a real climb, 124 00:05:05,201 --> 00:05:06,101 [Rush Lindell] even with good wind. 125 00:05:06,651 --> 00:05:08,601 [Reagan] Structural doesn't mean impossible, 126 00:05:08,951 --> 00:05:09,551 [Reagan] just harder. 127 00:05:10,101 --> 00:05:11,051 [Rush Lindell] And that's the trick, 128 00:05:11,401 --> 00:05:12,201 [Rush Lindell] three on paper, 129 00:05:12,551 --> 00:05:13,351 [Rush Lindell] eight in practice. 130 00:05:13,351 --> 00:05:13,801 [Speaker 3] Wow. 131 00:05:13,801 --> 00:05:17,351 [Reagan] A very different headline than the one everyone's running with. 132 00:05:18,144 --> 00:05:21,043 [Rush Lindell] Nobody wants to say the game's rigged by geometry, 133 00:05:21,243 --> 00:05:22,043 [Rush Lindell] not just politics. 134 00:05:22,644 --> 00:05:25,194 [Reagan] Geometry doesn't get invited on the Sunday shows. 135 00:05:25,694 --> 00:05:27,243 [Rush Lindell] Speaking of structural fights, 136 00:05:27,444 --> 00:05:28,944 [Rush Lindell] there's a bigger one brewing in the Senate. 137 00:05:29,243 --> 00:05:31,343 [Reagan] Where the map's a whole different animal. 138 00:05:37,144 --> 00:05:38,144 [Rush Lindell] Shifting to the Senate, 139 00:05:38,394 --> 00:05:42,593 [Rush Lindell] this fight's the polar opposite of the House—Republicans hold the ground already. 140 00:05:42,943 --> 00:05:44,743 [Reagan] Fifty-three to Forty-seven. 141 00:05:45,144 --> 00:05:47,493 [Reagan] Democrats need four seats to flip it. 142 00:05:47,743 --> 00:05:48,293 [Reagan] Just four. 143 00:05:48,593 --> 00:05:49,743 [Rush Lindell] Doesn't sound like much, 144 00:05:49,793 --> 00:05:50,144 [Rush Lindell] does it? 145 00:05:50,394 --> 00:05:54,843 [Rush Lindell] But DDHQ says the whole battle comes down to eight specific races: 146 00:05:55,343 --> 00:05:55,943 [Reagan] Name them. 147 00:05:56,243 --> 00:05:56,743 [Rush Lindell] Maine, 148 00:05:57,144 --> 00:05:57,993 [Rush Lindell] North Carolina, 149 00:05:58,394 --> 00:05:58,894 [Rush Lindell] Ohio, 150 00:05:59,394 --> 00:05:59,894 [Rush Lindell] Alaska, 151 00:06:00,443 --> 00:06:00,843 [Rush Lindell] Iowa, 152 00:06:01,343 --> 00:06:01,793 [Rush Lindell] Texas, 153 00:06:02,243 --> 00:06:02,693 [Rush Lindell] Michigan, 154 00:06:03,043 --> 00:06:03,443 [Rush Lindell] Georgia. 155 00:06:03,732 --> 00:06:05,932 [Rush Lindell] Eight states holding up one wall. 156 00:06:06,382 --> 00:06:09,282 [Reagan] And that wall's only as strong as its weakest brick. 157 00:06:09,632 --> 00:06:12,632 [Rush Lindell] Here's what should worry every Republican strategist tonight: 158 00:06:13,082 --> 00:06:15,332 [Rush Lindell] these races aren't running on separate tracks. 159 00:06:15,732 --> 00:06:16,482 [Reagan] Explain that. 160 00:06:16,782 --> 00:06:19,982 [Rush Lindell] DDHQ analyst Geoffrey Skelley put it plainly: 161 00:06:20,382 --> 00:06:21,832 [Rush Lindell] these outcomes are correlated, 162 00:06:22,132 --> 00:06:22,882 [Rush Lindell] not independent. 163 00:06:23,332 --> 00:06:25,432 [Reagan] Translation for the folks driving home: 164 00:06:25,832 --> 00:06:27,482 [Reagan] if the national mood shifts, 165 00:06:27,682 --> 00:06:29,132 [Reagan] it doesn't flip one race, 166 00:06:29,282 --> 00:06:29,682 [Reagan] it moves 167 00:06:29,682 --> 00:06:30,132 [Speaker 4] them all. 168 00:06:29,555 --> 00:06:30,105 [Reagan] Proves three, 169 00:06:30,406 --> 00:06:30,705 [Reagan] four, 170 00:06:30,855 --> 00:06:31,656 [Reagan] five at once. 171 00:06:31,656 --> 00:06:31,955 [Rush Lindell] Right. 172 00:06:32,156 --> 00:06:33,656 [Rush Lindell] Picture one hallway, 173 00:06:33,805 --> 00:06:35,605 [Rush Lindell] Reagan; kick the front door open, 174 00:06:35,755 --> 00:06:37,455 [Rush Lindell] and the rest swing wide behind it! 175 00:06:37,755 --> 00:06:42,105 [Reagan] Skelley's point is that one current runs under every single race at once. 176 00:06:42,455 --> 00:06:46,205 [Rush Lindell] Which is exactly why I'm calling this whole map the Firewall. 177 00:06:46,705 --> 00:06:52,005 [Rush Lindell] Fifty three seat sounds solid; it's one bad news cycle from folding like a cheap lawn chair. 178 00:06:52,455 --> 00:06:55,205 [Reagan] I'll grant the correlation point; that's legitimate. 179 00:06:55,740 --> 00:06:59,439 [Reagan] But one bad news cycle is doing a lot of work in that sentence. 180 00:07:00,251 --> 00:07:00,601 [Rush Lindell] Is it? 181 00:07:00,801 --> 00:07:04,901 [Rush Lindell] Watch what happens if unemployment ticks up in Ohio and Michigan the same month. 182 00:07:05,301 --> 00:07:13,201 [Reagan] Sure; shared economic conditions move correlated states together; that's just math nobody wants to say out loud in Senate leadership meetings. 183 00:07:13,751 --> 00:07:15,851 [Rush Lindell] Which is exactly why I'm saying it: 184 00:07:16,151 --> 00:07:17,001 [Rush Lindell] somebody's got to. 185 00:07:17,251 --> 00:07:17,651 [Reagan] So, 186 00:07:17,801 --> 00:07:18,651 [Reagan] of those eight, 187 00:07:18,901 --> 00:07:22,451 [Reagan] three are doing the heaviest lifting in DDHQ's own numbers. 188 00:07:23,051 --> 00:07:23,901 [Rush Lindell] Three races, 189 00:07:24,251 --> 00:07:25,951 [Rush Lindell] one firewall—and Reagan, 190 00:07:26,301 --> 00:07:28,601 [Rush Lindell] that's where this gets uncomfortable for the GOP. 191 00:07:28,701 --> 00:07:28,901 [Reagan] Why? 192 00:07:28,825 --> 00:07:28,875 [Reagan] Why? 193 00:07:28,975 --> 00:07:29,375 [Speaker 3] Thank you. 194 00:07:34,073 --> 00:07:35,273 [Rush Lindell] Building on that, 195 00:07:35,423 --> 00:07:37,023 [Rush Lindell] let's stress test the firewall, 196 00:07:37,373 --> 00:07:38,473 [Rush Lindell] North Carolina first. 197 00:07:38,973 --> 00:07:41,373 [Reagan] The open seat Thom Tillis is leaving behind. 198 00:07:41,973 --> 00:07:42,223 [Rush Lindell] Right. 199 00:07:42,523 --> 00:07:44,723 [Rush Lindell] According to DDHQ's forecast, 200 00:07:44,873 --> 00:07:47,873 [Rush Lindell] Republicans have just a twenty eight percent chance of holding it. 201 00:07:48,273 --> 00:07:51,623 [Rush Lindell] Cooper's led Michael Whatley in every single public poll this cycle. 202 00:07:51,973 --> 00:07:52,723 [Reagan] Every poll. 203 00:07:52,823 --> 00:07:53,673 [Reagan] That's a real pattern. 204 00:07:53,973 --> 00:07:57,723 [Rush Lindell] A pattern that's basically writing Whatley's obituary before election day. 205 00:07:57,873 --> 00:08:00,023 [Rush Lindell] I'm calling this one Cooper's coronation. 206 00:08:00,185 --> 00:08:00,785 [Reagan] Cute! 207 00:08:00,935 --> 00:08:02,285 [Reagan] Now let's go to Alaska, 208 00:08:02,485 --> 00:08:03,535 [Reagan] because that one's stranger. 209 00:08:03,985 --> 00:08:04,285 [Rush Lindell] Oh, 210 00:08:04,435 --> 00:08:04,885 [Rush Lindell] Alaska: 211 00:08:05,135 --> 00:08:07,285 [Rush Lindell] Mary Peltola versus Dan Sullivan. 212 00:08:07,735 --> 00:08:09,635 [Rush Lindell] Trump won that state by double digits. 213 00:08:10,085 --> 00:08:11,085 [Reagan] And yet...? 214 00:08:11,485 --> 00:08:16,935 [Rush Lindell] And yet DDHQ has Peltola at a forty four per cent shot at unseating him-forty four, 215 00:08:17,185 --> 00:08:18,085 [Rush Lindell] in a state that red! 216 00:08:18,535 --> 00:08:21,235 [Reagan] That tells you either Sullivan's got a real problem, 217 00:08:21,785 --> 00:08:24,635 [Reagan] or Peltola's just that good at outrunning the top of the ticket. 218 00:08:24,985 --> 00:08:25,585 [Rush Lindell] Both. 219 00:08:25,685 --> 00:08:27,935 [Rush Lindell] She did it in twenty twenty two with ranked choice. 220 00:08:28,057 --> 00:08:29,407 [Rush Lindell] Now she's doing it again. 221 00:08:29,707 --> 00:08:30,257 [Reagan] Third one, 222 00:08:30,607 --> 00:08:30,907 [Reagan] Texas. 223 00:08:31,507 --> 00:08:33,307 [Rush Lindell] Texas is the chaos race. 224 00:08:33,757 --> 00:08:36,557 [Rush Lindell] Ken Paxton knocked off John Cornyn in the primary, 225 00:08:36,857 --> 00:08:37,857 [Rush Lindell] the sitting senator, 226 00:08:38,157 --> 00:08:38,507 [Rush Lindell] gone. 227 00:08:38,807 --> 00:08:41,157 [Reagan] An incumbent senator loses his own primary? 228 00:08:41,557 --> 00:08:42,807 [Rush Lindell] Bloodbath. 229 00:08:43,257 --> 00:08:49,357 [Rush Lindell] And now Paxton's facing James Talarico and DDHQ's got this listed among its top toss ups nationally. 230 00:08:49,707 --> 00:08:51,907 [Reagan] Give me the nickname; I know you've got one. 231 00:08:52,207 --> 00:08:54,207 [Rush Lindell] It's Paxton versus the Preacher. 232 00:08:54,361 --> 00:08:56,461 [Rush Lindell] Talarico's got the seminary background, 233 00:08:56,861 --> 00:08:58,411 [Rush Lindell] Paxton's got the impeachment file. 234 00:08:58,711 --> 00:08:59,611 [Rush Lindell] Pick your Sunday sermon. 235 00:09:00,217 --> 00:09:01,267 [Reagan] Fine, 236 00:09:01,367 --> 00:09:04,967 [Reagan] I will allow it; but I've got a problem with the firewall thesis. 237 00:09:05,517 --> 00:09:05,867 [Rush Lindell] Go ahead! 238 00:09:06,117 --> 00:09:07,717 [Reagan] You've named three races. 239 00:09:08,067 --> 00:09:10,167 [Reagan] Even if Democrats sweep North Carolina, 240 00:09:10,317 --> 00:09:10,767 [Reagan] Alaska, 241 00:09:11,017 --> 00:09:12,717 [Reagan] and Texas—that's three seats. 242 00:09:12,917 --> 00:09:13,617 [Reagan] What's the fourth? 243 00:09:13,967 --> 00:09:16,567 [Rush Lindell] That's—that's the actual math problem, 244 00:09:16,717 --> 00:09:17,017 [Rush Lindell] isn't it? 245 00:09:17,267 --> 00:09:17,817 [Reagan] It is. 246 00:09:18,017 --> 00:09:20,017 [Reagan] Four net flips gets them to fifty-fifty, 247 00:09:20,267 --> 00:09:23,367 [Reagan] and Vance still breaks that tie the other way if they stop at three. 248 00:09:23,717 --> 00:09:27,117 [Rush Lindell] So even a clean sweep of the big three leaves them one short. 249 00:09:26,905 --> 00:09:27,155 [Rush Lindell] Short! 250 00:09:27,405 --> 00:09:28,105 [Reagan] One short: 251 00:09:28,305 --> 00:09:31,505 [Reagan] there's a fourth domino somewhere on that map we haven't named tonight. 252 00:09:31,905 --> 00:09:32,655 [Rush Lindell] Suddenly, 253 00:09:32,755 --> 00:09:36,055 [Rush Lindell] the Firewall's looking a little sturdier than I gave it credit for. 254 00:09:36,455 --> 00:09:37,005 [Reagan] Sturdier, 255 00:09:37,155 --> 00:09:39,605 [Reagan] but that fourth seat still nowhere in sight. 256 00:09:40,005 --> 00:09:44,605 [Rush Lindell] Which is exactly why some folks are already measuring the curtains over at the DNC. 257 00:09:50,393 --> 00:09:52,543 [Rush Lindell] Speaking of spin—picture this: 258 00:09:53,043 --> 00:09:55,643 [Rush Lindell] somewhere in DC there's a War Room. 259 00:09:56,043 --> 00:09:56,343 [Reagan] Oh, 260 00:09:56,443 --> 00:09:58,043 [Reagan] no; you're doing the voice. 261 00:09:58,693 --> 00:09:59,293 [Rush Lindell] Team, 262 00:09:59,593 --> 00:10:02,993 [Rush Lindell] we've got a forty per cent shot at full control, 263 00:10:03,393 --> 00:10:04,893 [Rush Lindell] that's a mandate. 264 00:10:05,693 --> 00:10:07,293 [Reagan] A forty per cent mandate. 265 00:10:08,493 --> 00:10:08,843 [Reagan] Bold! 266 00:10:09,043 --> 00:10:11,443 [Rush Lindell] Tell the donors it's a landslide, 267 00:10:11,893 --> 00:10:13,793 [Rush Lindell] tell the base it's destiny. 268 00:10:14,521 --> 00:10:15,521 [Reagan] To be fair, 269 00:10:15,671 --> 00:10:18,071 [Reagan] Republicans run the same play when they're ahead. 270 00:10:18,621 --> 00:10:20,521 [Rush Lindell] Completely flip the number, 271 00:10:20,721 --> 00:10:21,421 [Rush Lindell] same script. 272 00:10:21,821 --> 00:10:25,221 [Rush Lindell] Fifty seven per cent Senate odds basically sworn in. 273 00:10:25,671 --> 00:10:28,421 [Reagan] Whoever's up treats the number like scripture. 274 00:10:28,821 --> 00:10:30,821 [Reagan] Whoever's down treats it like noise. 275 00:10:31,621 --> 00:10:33,271 [Rush Lindell] That's the whole game. 276 00:10:33,771 --> 00:10:37,571 [Reagan] It's really just cable news treating a percentage like prophecy. 277 00:10:38,171 --> 00:10:39,821 [Reagan] Forty per cent isn't a mandate, 278 00:10:40,071 --> 00:10:42,521 [Reagan] it's a probability with a bad publicist. 279 00:10:43,273 --> 00:10:45,123 [Rush Lindell] A bad publicist, 280 00:10:45,473 --> 00:10:46,223 [Rush Lindell] stealing that. 281 00:10:46,673 --> 00:10:50,323 [Reagan] Keep it; somebody tell the War Room math doesn't care about morale. 282 00:10:50,973 --> 00:10:52,223 [Rush Lindell] And on that note, 283 00:10:52,473 --> 00:10:55,473 [Rush Lindell] let's talk about the number that might actually move it all. 284 00:10:56,023 --> 00:10:58,473 [Reagan] The one nobody in that room wants to look at. 285 00:11:03,801 --> 00:11:05,951 [Rush Lindell] Forget the War Room bit for a second. 286 00:11:06,251 --> 00:11:08,101 [Rush Lindell] Here's a number that actually moves things. 287 00:11:08,101 --> 00:11:09,051 [Reagan] Go on. 288 00:11:09,851 --> 00:11:16,051 [Rush Lindell] DDHQ's own polling average has Trump's approval up to 42.5%, highest since March. 289 00:11:16,401 --> 00:11:17,351 [Reagan] Small bump, 290 00:11:17,451 --> 00:11:19,751 [Reagan] but small bumps matter in a midterm year. 291 00:11:19,951 --> 00:11:21,551 [Rush Lindell] Exactly why it matters, 292 00:11:21,651 --> 00:11:21,901 [Rush Lindell] Reagan. 293 00:11:22,201 --> 00:11:23,501 [Rush Lindell] Every point he climbs, 294 00:11:23,701 --> 00:11:26,101 [Rush Lindell] the Democratic tailwind shrinks a little more. 295 00:11:26,451 --> 00:11:30,151 [Reagan] And the DDHQ forecast flags exactly that risk. 296 00:11:30,041 --> 00:11:34,391 [Reagan] if the generic ballot lead falls to around D plus two point five, 297 00:11:34,691 --> 00:11:38,591 [Reagan] the House stops being Favored Democrat and turns into a flat coin flip. 298 00:11:39,041 --> 00:11:40,091 [Rush Lindell] Razor's edge! 299 00:11:40,441 --> 00:11:40,941 [Reagan] It is. 300 00:11:41,141 --> 00:11:42,541 [Reagan] So which moves faster, 301 00:11:42,841 --> 00:11:46,491 [Reagan] approval numbers or actual economic anxiety in people's wallets? 302 00:11:46,891 --> 00:11:48,141 [Rush Lindell] Anxiety wins. 303 00:11:48,541 --> 00:11:51,641 [Rush Lindell] Grocery prices don't wait on a polling average to catch up. 304 00:11:51,941 --> 00:11:52,341 [Reagan] Sure, 305 00:11:52,441 --> 00:11:55,691 [Reagan] but polling doesn't always catch anxiety in real time either. 306 00:11:55,941 --> 00:11:56,991 [Reagan] The lag runs both 307 00:11:56,991 --> 00:11:57,491 [Speaker 4] ways. 308 00:11:56,761 --> 00:11:57,461 [Reagan] both directions. 309 00:11:57,911 --> 00:12:00,111 [Rush Lindell] So we're both flying a little blind. 310 00:12:00,611 --> 00:12:01,911 [Reagan] A hundred plus days out, 311 00:12:02,111 --> 00:12:03,461 [Reagan] we're flying very blind. 312 00:12:03,661 --> 00:12:04,561 [Reagan] That's not a hedge, 313 00:12:04,711 --> 00:12:05,611 [Reagan] that's just the calendar. 314 00:12:06,061 --> 00:12:08,711 [Rush Lindell] Fair enough; Uncertainty cuts both ways, 315 00:12:08,911 --> 00:12:09,361 [Rush Lindell] for us, 316 00:12:09,461 --> 00:12:10,061 [Rush Lindell] for investors, 317 00:12:10,361 --> 00:12:11,861 [Rush Lindell] for anybody with skin in this race. 318 00:12:11,861 --> 00:12:12,161 [Speaker 5] Right. 319 00:12:12,411 --> 00:12:13,961 [Reagan] Speaking of skin in the game. 320 00:12:14,411 --> 00:12:15,561 [Rush Lindell] Quick word from our sponsor: 321 00:12:16,011 --> 00:12:16,911 [Rush Lindell] Since twenty twenty, 322 00:12:17,161 --> 00:12:19,861 [Rush Lindell] the silver price has risen more than two hundred twenty percent. 323 00:12:20,411 --> 00:12:20,811 [Reagan] Why? 324 00:12:21,111 --> 00:12:23,961 [Reagan] Because rising demand for solar and electric vehicles. 325 00:12:23,929 --> 00:12:26,679 [Reagan] Coal's alone has put silver supply into a deficit. 326 00:12:27,129 --> 00:12:29,929 [Rush Lindell] But now there's another industry-AI. 327 00:12:30,329 --> 00:12:31,079 [Reagan] Data centers, 328 00:12:31,279 --> 00:12:31,729 [Reagan] robots, 329 00:12:31,929 --> 00:12:37,029 [Reagan] and quantum computing could require so much silver that silver supplies could be obliterated. 330 00:12:37,479 --> 00:12:40,079 [Rush Lindell] Could silver rise another two hundred twenty percent? 331 00:12:40,329 --> 00:12:47,479 [Reagan] Find out by texting RUSH to four three three four three to request Lear Capital's special report THE AI REVOLUTION. 332 00:12:47,879 --> 00:12:50,379 [Rush Lindell] See why billions are being poured into AI 333 00:12:50,361 --> 00:12:53,461 [Rush Lindell] and how silver could be your best investment this year. 334 00:12:53,811 --> 00:12:57,561 [Reagan] Also ask how you can get up to twenty thousand dollars in bonus silver. 335 00:12:58,061 --> 00:12:58,861 [Rush Lindell] Lear Capital, 336 00:12:59,161 --> 00:13:00,411 [Rush Lindell] your trusted source, 337 00:13:00,711 --> 00:13:05,061 [Rush Lindell] over three billion dollars in transactions and thousands of five star reviews. 338 00:13:05,711 --> 00:13:08,261 [Reagan] TEXT RUSH TO four three three four three. 339 00:13:08,711 --> 00:13:09,461 [Rush Lindell] That's the number, 340 00:13:09,811 --> 00:13:10,461 [Rush Lindell] write it down. 341 00:13:10,861 --> 00:13:14,561 [Reagan] A hundred days changes minds; numbers won't sit still. 342 00:13:14,911 --> 00:13:15,911 [Rush Lindell] Neither will we. 343 00:13:16,311 --> 00:13:17,461 [Rush Lindell] Let's put one on the board. 344 00:13:17,849 --> 00:13:18,099 [Speaker 6] t 345 00:13:23,149 --> 00:13:25,449 [Rush Lindell] Building on that Firewall talk, 346 00:13:25,649 --> 00:13:27,249 [Rush Lindell] time to put a number on the board. 347 00:13:27,699 --> 00:13:28,349 [Reagan] Go on, 348 00:13:28,399 --> 00:13:28,599 [Reagan] then. 349 00:13:29,449 --> 00:13:29,849 [Rush Lindell] Two, 350 00:13:30,149 --> 00:13:35,199 [Rush Lindell] I say Democrats flip two of the eight seats DDHQ flagged, and, 351 00:13:35,249 --> 00:13:36,299 [Rush Lindell] enough to make the map close, 352 00:13:36,649 --> 00:13:37,949 [Rush Lindell] not enough to break the wall. 353 00:13:38,329 --> 00:13:39,179 [Reagan] Which two? 354 00:13:39,529 --> 00:13:44,679 [Rush Lindell] North Carolina and one darker I'm not naming yet-save it for next week. 355 00:13:45,229 --> 00:13:47,529 [Reagan] Building Suspense-Classic 356 00:13:48,479 --> 00:13:49,679 [Rush Lindell] That's the job. 357 00:13:50,179 --> 00:13:50,529 [Reagan] Okay, 358 00:13:50,729 --> 00:13:51,429 [Reagan] my caveat, 359 00:13:51,679 --> 00:13:52,729 [Reagan] and it's a real one: 360 00:13:53,229 --> 00:13:55,929 [Reagan] one hundred plus days is a FULL news cycle, 361 00:13:56,129 --> 00:13:56,979 [Reagan] a jobs report, 362 00:13:57,129 --> 00:13:57,929 [Reagan] maybe two. 363 00:13:58,529 --> 00:14:00,129 [Reagan] Fundraising numbers alone could- 364 00:14:00,202 --> 00:14:02,702 [Rush Lindell] Flip three of these races before Labor Day. 365 00:14:03,302 --> 00:14:03,802 [Reagan] Sure, 366 00:14:03,902 --> 00:14:05,652 [Reagan] but conviction beats waiting around. 367 00:14:06,352 --> 00:14:07,402 [Rush Lindell] Conviction's fine, 368 00:14:07,702 --> 00:14:09,402 [Rush Lindell] just don't confuse it with certainty. 369 00:14:10,046 --> 00:14:11,346 [Reagan] Noted, 370 00:14:11,446 --> 00:14:11,846 [Reagan] Professor. 371 00:14:12,546 --> 00:14:13,646 [Rush Lindell] So here's the deal: 372 00:14:13,946 --> 00:14:16,646 [Rush Lindell] we keep the Senate Firewall thread alive. 373 00:14:17,046 --> 00:14:18,196 [Rush Lindell] Every polling update, 374 00:14:18,496 --> 00:14:19,996 [Rush Lindell] every fundraising filing, 375 00:14:20,446 --> 00:14:22,246 [Rush Lindell] we come back to these eight races. 376 00:14:22,996 --> 00:14:27,296 [Reagan] Same scorecard every week until somebody's wall actually cracks. 377 00:14:27,946 --> 00:14:28,296 [Rush Lindell] Agreed. 378 00:14:28,296 --> 00:14:28,546 [Reagan] Right. 379 00:14:28,546 --> 00:14:29,596 [Rush Lindell] Mark it down: 380 00:14:29,996 --> 00:14:31,496 [Rush Lindell] Rush says two flips, 381 00:14:31,796 --> 00:14:33,996 [Rush Lindell] I say the range stays wide open. 382 00:14:34,494 --> 00:14:38,194 [Reagan] And in a hundred days, one of us gets to say I told you so. 383 00:14:38,794 --> 00:14:41,294 [Rush Lindell] We'll see whose firewall's still standing. 384 00:14:46,978 --> 00:14:52,378 [Reagan] So today we dug into DDHQ's new forecast—Democrats favored for the House, 385 00:14:52,828 --> 00:14:56,078 [Reagan] Senate frozen at fifty-fifty with Vance holding the gavel. 386 00:14:56,528 --> 00:15:03,428 [Rush Lindell] And the number that stuck with me—Skelley's firewall idea—those eight Senate races moving as one block, 387 00:15:03,578 --> 00:15:05,178 [Rush Lindell] not eight separate stories. 388 00:15:05,928 --> 00:15:09,828 [Reagan] Right—my take? Two of those eight flip blue by November. 389 00:15:10,178 --> 00:15:10,778 [Reagan] Mark it down! 390 00:15:11,378 --> 00:15:13,278 [Rush Lindell] A hundred days of polling left, 391 00:15:13,378 --> 00:15:15,328 [Rush Lindell] Rush—I'm not signing that check yet. 392 00:15:15,582 --> 00:15:17,382 [Reagan] Workshop it with me next week. 393 00:15:17,632 --> 00:15:18,132 [Rush Lindell] Deal. 394 00:15:18,482 --> 00:15:18,982 [Rush Lindell] The takeaway, 395 00:15:19,432 --> 00:15:20,932 [Rush Lindell] probabilities aren't promises. 396 00:15:21,332 --> 00:15:23,232 [Rush Lindell] Watch the trend and skip the headline. 397 00:15:23,782 --> 00:15:24,882 [Reagan] Exactly right. 398 00:15:25,132 --> 00:15:26,582 [Reagan] If you like this one, hit subscribe. 399 00:15:26,982 --> 00:15:28,032 [Reagan] Leave us five stars. 400 00:15:28,182 --> 00:15:28,832 [Reagan] Tell a friend. 401 00:15:29,132 --> 00:15:31,132 [Rush Lindell] New episodes every weekday. 402 00:15:31,332 --> 00:15:34,282 [Reagan] We'll keep tracking the Firewall race by race. 403 00:15:34,432 --> 00:15:36,232 [Rush Lindell] Thanks for spending the hour with us. 404 00:15:36,482 --> 00:15:37,482 [Reagan] See you next time.