[Rush Lindell] Rush Lindell here,
[Rush Lindell] back behind the mic, and Reagan,
[Rush Lindell] good to have you.
[Reagan] Always good to be here, Rush.
[Rush Lindell] We've got a loaded hour.
[Rush Lindell] Iran's back in the headlines,
[Rush Lindell] and this time it is ugly.
[Reagan] The MOU is dead!
[Reagan] Trump said so himself at the NATO summit and everything moved fast after that.
[Rush Lindell] We're walking that whole timeline.
[Rush Lindell] The tanker attacks,
[Rush Lindell] the strikes,
[Rush Lindell] the reversal nobody saw coming.
[Reagan] And then there's the money side.
[Reagan] Oil's moving,
[Reagan] gas prices are moving,
[Reagan] and midterms are closing in fast.
[Reagan] and fast.
[Rush Lindell] Oh, and we're settling the scorecard. Who actually called this thing right?
[Reagan] Careful,
[Reagan] I've got a memory.
[Rush Lindell] So do I,
[Rush Lindell] Reagan.
[Rush Lindell] That's the problem.
[Reagan] Let's separate the rhetoric from the reality later once the receipts are on the table.
[Rush Lindell] Let me tell you something.
[Rush Lindell] I love it when you say that.
[Reagan] I know you do.
[Rush Lindell] Later on, stick around for a parody bit.
[Rush Lindell] Iran's foreign ministry gets a Yelp review courtesy of yours truly.
[Reagan] I'm already bracing to fact check that one.
[Rush Lindell] You always do.
[Rush Lindell] But first...
[Rush Lindell] First, this hour is brought to you by Lear Capital,
[Rush Lindell] America's precious metals leader since 1997.
[Reagan] Good partner to have when the world looks like it does right now.
[Rush Lindell] All right, Reagan,
[Rush Lindell] walk me through how we actually got here.
[Reagan] Happy to.
[Reagan] Let's start with the tankers.
[Rush Lindell] Before we dive in, a quick reminder,
[Rush Lindell] we love hearing from you.
[Rush Lindell] If you have questions or topics you'd like us to cover,
[Rush Lindell] head to the link in the description and submit your question.
[Rush Lindell] We read every single one.
[Rush Lindell] Okay,
[Rush Lindell] we called this a month ago.
[Rush Lindell] We sat right here and argued about this deal.
[Rush Lindell] I said masterstroke, Reagan said surrender.
[Rush Lindell] And tonight, folks,
[Rush Lindell] we're grading ourselves,
[Rush Lindell] because the deal, it's dead.
[Reagan] Dead as in officially dead or dead as in Rush's-dramatic-voice dead?
[Rush Lindell] Both.
[Rush Lindell] ABC News reports Trump stood at the NATO summit in Ankara and said,
[Rush Lindell] quote,
[Rush Lindell] for me, I think it's over.
[Reagan] Not exactly Churchill,
[Reagan] but it gets the point across.
[Rush Lindell] And here's the line that got me,
[Rush Lindell] Reagan.
[Rush Lindell] He didn't just walk away.
[Rush Lindell] He called the Iranian leadership scum multiple times,
[Rush Lindell] said he doesn't want to deal with them anymore.
[Reagan] That's a real shift in language.
[Reagan] A month ago,
[Reagan] this was a breakthrough.
[Reagan] Tonight it's scum.
[Rush Lindell] That's not a shift-that's a full one eighty with the tires screeching.
[Reagan] I'll give you this much-the rhetoric matches the moment; it's not measured any more.
[Rush Lindell] So tonight we're not doing the same tired timeline recap everybody else is doing; we're pulling the receipts-our receipts-what we said,
[Rush Lindell] what he said,
[Rush Lindell] what actually happened.
[Reagan] So-you're sure you want to revisit what you said a month ago?
[Rush Lindell] Terrified,
[Rush Lindell] absolutely terrified,
[Rush Lindell] but let's do it anyway.
[Reagan] So if the man who brokered this deal is now calling
[Speaker 3] for its collapse, why aren't you?
[Reagan] Now calling the other side scum on camera at a NATO summit,
[Rush Lindell] Right.
[Reagan] what exactly happened in Ankara to get us here?
[Rush Lindell] Ankara,
[Rush Lindell] NATO summit,
[Rush Lindell] and somewhere between the group photo and the state dinner,
[Rush Lindell] Trump torches his own deal.
[Reagan] Walk me through what actually triggered it.
[Rush Lindell] Three tankers hit in the Strait of Hormuz.
[Rush Lindell] CENTCOM answers by striking more than 80 Iranian targets.
[Rush Lindell] That's ABC News reporting it this morning.
[Reagan] 80 targets?
[Reagan] That's not a slap on the wrist.
[Rush Lindell] And here's the part I can't get over.
[Rush Lindell] Just last month,
[Rush Lindell] this same president
[Rush Lindell] Called Iran's leaders,
[Rush Lindell] quote,
[Rush Lindell] rational,
[Rush Lindell] nice,
[Rush Lindell] strong,
[Rush Lindell] and smart.
[Reagan] I remember that line.
[Rush Lindell] So a reporter asks him point blank what changed and Trump says,
[Rush Lindell] and I'm not making this up,
[Rush Lindell] I got to know them.
[Reagan] Four weeks. That's the whole diplomatic arc.
[Rush Lindell] Four weeks,
[Rush Lindell] Reagan.
[Rush Lindell] Nice and smart to scum in one press gaggle. I'm calling it the anchor flip.
[Reagan] Okay,
[Reagan] but let's separate the theater from the sequence.
[Reagan] ABC News says he huddled with advisers Tuesday before the strikes landed,
[Reagan] not after some tantrum in the hallway.
[Rush Lindell] Sure,
[Rush Lindell] he huddled,
[Rush Lindell] then declared the whole memorandum did,
[Rush Lindell] by Wednesday morning!
[Reagan] Right; and that timing matters because at the same time Washington yanked the sanctions waiver on Iranian oil sales directly tied to those tanker attacks.
[Rush Lindell] So it's not just insults-real leverage pulled overnight.
[Reagan] Which raises the stakes for how Tehran responds.
[Reagan] Evans.
[Rush Lindell] And Tehran did not sit quiet.
[Reagan] Iran's parliament speaker,
[Reagan] Ghalibaf,
[Reagan] their chief negotiator,
[Reagan] posted that the U S violated the M O U outright.
[Reagan] His line,
[Reagan] the era of bullying and extortion is over.
[Reagan] It leads nowhere.
[Reagan] We don't fold.
[Rush Lindell] Strong words from a government that's about to start counting bodies.
[Reagan] Which is exactly the number we need to look at next because Tehran's putting out a toll and it's not small.
[Rush Lindell] One question before we go there.
[Rush Lindell] There.
[Rush Lindell] If I got to know them is the President's actual foreign policy,
[Rush Lindell] what happens the next time he changes his mind?
[Reagan] That's the receipt we're keeping.
[Rush Lindell] Sure,
[Rush Lindell] sets aside the theater for a second,
[Rush Lindell] the numbers here are brutal.
[Rush Lindell] Iran's health ministry says at least 50 people are dead,
[Rush Lindell] over 500 injured,
[Rush Lindell] just this month.
[Rush Lindell] 50?
[Rush Lindell] That's not a headline,
[Rush Lindell] that's a body count.
[Rush Lindell] And Al Jazeera is reporting ties some of that directly to infrastructure.
[Rush Lindell] A desalination plant got hit,
[Rush Lindell] leaving 10,000 people without water.
[Rush Lindell] Wait,
[Rush Lindell] a water plant,
[Rush Lindell] not a missile site,
[Rush Lindell] not a base,
[Rush Lindell] water?
[Rush Lindell] That's what's being reported.
[Rush Lindell] And Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi is now saying flatly the U.S. has violated and suspended all its commitments under the MOU.
[Rush Lindell] Suspended,
[Rush Lindell] sure,
[Rush Lindell] because striking back at Bahrain and Kuwait is real diplomatic!
[Rush Lindell] Right,
[Rush Lindell] that's the retaliation:
[Rush Lindell] Tehran hit two U.S. allies in the Gulf and CENTCOM's reporting American service members killed in Jordan.
[Rush Lindell] Okay,
[Rush Lindell] Reagan,
[Rush Lindell] that's the part nobody's saying loud enough:
[Rush Lindell] we're not watching Iran anymore,
[Rush Lindell] we're watching the whole neighborhood catch fire.
[Rush Lindell] Seven straight nights of CENTCOM strikes now; this isn't a skirmish, it's the worst stretch since the cease fire fell apart.
[Rush Lindell] And every night we act shocked, like this wasn't exactly where MOUs over was always going to lead.
[Rush Lindell] I'll give you that one.
[Rush Lindell] Escalation begets escalation. That part isn't complicated.
[Rush Lindell] No,
[Rush Lindell] it isn't. What is complicated is explaining to a guy filling up his tank why any of this matters to him.
[Rush Lindell] Funny you say that,
[Rush Lindell] because it already does.
[Rush Lindell] Crude is moving,
[Rush Lindell] and it's moving fast.
[Rush Lindell] Oh, here we go.
[Rush Lindell] Let's talk about what this is actually costing people.
[Rush Lindell] Rush.
[Rush Lindell] Shifting to the money side of this,
[Rush Lindell] US crude jumped about six per cent,
[Rush Lindell] near seventy four sixty two a barrel,
[Rush Lindell] right after Trump called Iran's leaders "scum.
[Reagan] CFR's read matters here-still nowhere close to the near one hundred and twenty dollar high we saw before the MOU collapsed,
[Reagan] but traders don't grade on 'still lower'--they trade on direction.
[Rush Lindell] Direction's everything in this business-green arrow goes up,
[Rush Lindell] the gas station line gets longer.
[Rush Lindell] Every time.
[Reagan] There's also a clock nobody's naming out loud.
[Reagan] Strategist Karl Rove's been blunt:
[Reagan] this needs resolving by Labor Day because the fall campaign starts right after.
[Rush Lindell] Nothing sharpens a politician's focus like a midterm map.
[Reagan] And here's the odd part:
[Reagan] the strait itself isn't fully shut.
[Reagan] A U.S.
[Reagan] defense official told reporters over a hundred vessels coordinated transits with the military last week alone.
[Reagan] More than three hundred moved through the wider region.
[Rush Lindell] A hundred ships still crossing a war zone?
[Reagan] Still crossing.
[Reagan] Slower,
[Reagan] pricier insurance,
[Reagan] but moving.
[Reagan] The choke point spooked, not closed.
[Reagan] Different story for your gas bill,
[Reagan] though.
[Rush Lindell] Which is exactly why,
[Rush Lindell] if you're watching oil bounce around like this,
[Reagan] You
[Rush Lindell] Since
[Reagan] start thinking about where money hides when things get shaky.
[Rush Lindell] 2020,
[Rush Lindell] the silver price has risen more than 220%.
[Reagan] Why?
[Reagan] Because rising demand for solar and electric vehicles alone has put silver supply into a deficit.
[Rush Lindell] But now there's another industry:
[Rush Lindell] AI
[Reagan] Data centers,
[Reagan] robots,
[Reagan] and quantum computing could require so much silver that silver supplies could be obliterated.
[Rush Lindell] Could silver rise another two hundred and twenty percent?
[Reagan] Find out by texting RUSH to four three three four three to request their special report The AI Revolution.
[Reagan] solution.
[Rush Lindell] See why billions are being poured into AI,
[Rush Lindell] and how silver could be your best investment this year.
[Reagan] Also ask how you can get up to twenty thousand dollars in bonus silver.
[Rush Lindell] Lear Capital,
[Rush Lindell] your trusted source,
[Rush Lindell] over three billion dollars in transactions and thousands of five star reviews.
[Reagan] Text RUSH to four three three four three.
[Rush Lindell] Okay,
[Rush Lindell] pump prices,
[Rush Lindell] midterms,
[Rush Lindell] silver hedges ... that's the wallet side of this whole mess.
[Speaker 4] Yeah.
[Reagan] Which means it's time to check the receipts.
[Reagan] A month ago, we had this exact fight on air over whether that 14-point deal was a win.
[Rush Lindell] And I remember exactly what I said.
[Reagan] So do I.
[Reagan] Let's find out who was right.
[Rush Lindell] Okay,
[Rush Lindell] Reagan,
[Rush Lindell] time to eat some words,
[Rush Lindell] mine mostly.
[Reagan] I was wondering when we'd get here!
[Rush Lindell] Last month I called that fourteen point MOU a win,
[Rush Lindell] a real honest Trump-earned win.
[Reagan] And I said it was a pause dressed up as peace.
[Rush Lindell] I was closer.
[Reagan] I'll take it; but let's be fair to you,
[Reagan] too; the shipping numbers did calm down for a while.
[Rush Lindell] They did,
[Rush Lindell] for about six weeks.
[Rush Lindell] Then,
[Rush Lindell] boom!
[Reagan] Right,
[Reagan] and that's not random.
[Reagan] According to Council on Foreign Relations,
[Reagan] the MOU only guaranteed Iran sixty days of toll free shipping through Hormuz.
[Rush Lindell] Sixty days like a lease!
[Reagan] Like a lease nobody read the fine print on; that clock was running the entire time we were calling it a masterstroke.
[Rush Lindell] So the thing had an expiration date and everybody just didn't mention it?
[Reagan] Didn't mention it or didn't want to?
[Rush Lindell] That's on me.
[Rush Lindell] I was so locked into the win narrative,
[Rush Lindell] I skipped the fine print.
[Reagan] I flagged the 60 days back then,
[Reagan] but even I didn't think it'd blow up this fast.
[Rush Lindell] So we're both wrong,
[Rush Lindell] just in different directions.
[Reagan] Basically.
[Reagan] Now CFR's Max Boot wrote something today that I think nails the bigger picture.
[Rush Lindell] Go on.
[Reagan] Boot argues Trump is facing the same trap every president before him hit.
[Reagan] Hit—A limited war fought with limited means,
[Reagan] producing limited results.
[Rush Lindell] Say that again.
[Reagan] Limited war,
[Reagan] limited means,
[Reagan] limited results; no path through regime change,
[Reagan] no appetite at home for more.
[Rush Lindell] And that's the part that gets me.
[Rush Lindell] We keep acting like this time is different!
[Reagan] It never is-not with Iran,
[Reagan] not with this kind of pressure campaign.
[Rush Lindell] So was the MOU a win or a surrender?
[Reagan] Neither; it was a countdown clock we dressed up as diplomacy.
[Rush Lindell] Fine-I overstated it; you called the structure,
[Rush Lindell] I called the vibe.
[Reagan] The vibe was good,
[Reagan] for what it's worth.
[Rush Lindell] Thanks-small comfort.
[Reagan] But structure is what breaks every time.
[Rush Lindell] Mm hmm.
[Rush Lindell] All right,
[Rush Lindell] I've owned my part,
[Rush Lindell] you've owned yours-grades are in.
[Reagan] Grades are in.
[Rush Lindell] But you know what nobody's graded yet?
[Reagan] What?
[Rush Lindell] The way this whole thing sounded from Tehran's side once it collapsed.
[Reagan] Oh,
[Reagan] I have thoughts.
[Rush Lindell] Oh, we've got thoughts-wait till you hear how we're framing it!
[Reagan] This is gonna be a bit,
[Reagan] isn't it?
[Rush Lindell] It's already written!
[Rush Lindell] Building on that one more bit before we get serious again.
[Reagan] Oh no.
[Rush Lindell] Picture Iran's foreign ministry on Yelp.
[Rush Lindell] Mock bureaucrat. Ordered de-escalation. Received 80 targets.
[Rush Lindell] One star.
[Reagan] You said two stars a second ago in rehearsal.
[Rush Lindell] Inconsistent reviewer. Sue him.
[Reagan] Keep going.
[Rush Lindell] Now,
[Rush Lindell] flip it.
[Rush Lindell] Trump side,
[Rush Lindell] used car lot ad; announcer voice,
[Rush Lindell] Iranian leadership,
[Rush Lindell] rational,
[Rush Lindell] nice,
[Rush Lindell] strong,
[Rush Lindell] smart,
[Rush Lindell] won't last,
[Rush Lindell] folks,
[Rush Lindell] now,
[Rush Lindell] scum,
[Rush Lindell] certified,
[Rush Lindell] as in no warranty.
[Reagan] That rhythm is unfortunately perfect.
[Rush Lindell] Two weeks'
[Rush Lindell] compliment to insult,
[Rush Lindell] that's the whole pitch.
[Reagan] Except the joke skips WHY the sign flipped." ABC News reported CENTCOM hit over eighty targets after Iran attacked merchant ships in Hormuz first.
[Rush Lindell] Fair,
[Rush Lindell] the salesman had a reason.
[Reagan] Doesn't make the whiplash less funny; just means it's not one sided theater.
[Rush Lindell] Fine,
[Rush Lindell] rewrite the review:
[Rush Lindell] Ordered cease fire received mutual escalation.
[Rush Lindell] Both parties left one star reviews on each other.
[Reagan] There it is,
[Reagan] equal opportunity mockery.
[Rush Lindell] And Al Jazeera's got the real casualty count behind the punch line:
[Rush Lindell] fifty dead this month per Iran's health ministry.
[Rush Lindell] So laugh,
[Rush Lindell] but not too hard.
[Reagan] NOTED:
[Reagan] Comedy with a conscience.
[Rush Lindell] Building on that circus,
[Rush Lindell] let's do the actual scorecard:
[Rush Lindell] Who called this right?
[Reagan] Honestly,
[Reagan] not me on the ceasefire holding.
[Reagan] But I called the 60 day window nobody read.
[Rush Lindell] Yeah,
[Rush Lindell] that one's yours.
[Rush Lindell] I said deal of the century.
[Rush Lindell] It was a deal of the month.
[Reagan] To month's generous.
[Rush Lindell] Fair,
[Rush Lindell] fair.
[Reagan] But here's what actually matters going forward:
[Reagan] CFR's Max Boot.
[Rush Lindell] lays out Trump's real problem now.
[Rush Lindell] He's stuck choosing between letting Iran toll ships through Hormuz or escalating further with no clear military endgame.
[Reagan] Neither one's a win.
[Rush Lindell] Right.
[Rush Lindell] Al Jazeera reported CENTCOM just ran its seventh straight night of strikes.
[Rush Lindell] That's not a skirmish anymore.
[Rush Lindell] That's a pattern.
[Reagan] So what are we watching next week?
[Rush Lindell] Whether Tehran's negotiator actually comes back to the table, or whether suspended
[Rush Lindell] Deal Quietly Becomes Dead
[Reagan] I'm watching the oil futures; if Hormuz traffic drops instead of just slowing,
[Reagan] that's the real siren.
[Rush Lindell] And don't sleep on the calendar-midterms are coming,
[Rush Lindell] and nobody votes on foreign policy nuance.
[Reagan] They vote on the number at the pump!
[Rush Lindell] Exactly.
[Rush Lindell] Diplomacy might not decide what happens next-gas prices might.
[Reagan] And that's the verdict,
[Reagan] folks:
[Reagan] this war isn't being won on the battlefield-
[Reagan] around or the negotiating table.
[Rush Lindell] It's being decided at the gas station.
[Reagan] Write that down.
[Reagan] We'll see who's right in November.
[Reagan] So that's the hour:
[Reagan] Iran,
[Reagan] Hormuz,
[Reagan] and Rush.
[Reagan] Wait, sorry,
[Reagan] I mean me getting called out on my own prediction.
[Rush Lindell] I said I'd give credit where it's due!
[Reagan] You did-barely.
[Rush Lindell] The takeaway,
[Rush Lindell] though:
[Rush Lindell] the choke point spooked,
[Rush Lindell] not closed.
[Rush Lindell] That's the real story under all the noise.
[Reagan] That's exactly right.
[Reagan] Everybody's watching the Strait,
[Reagan] but the deadline that matters is the midterms.
[Rush Lindell] Agreed.
[Rush Lindell] Watch the pump price,
[Rush Lindell] not the press conference.
[Reagan] And on that note,
[Reagan] if you liked this hour,
[Reagan] subscribe,
[Reagan] leave us five stars,
[Reagan] tell somebody who needs to hear it.
[Rush Lindell] New episodes every weekday.
[Rush Lindell] We're not going anywhere.
[Reagan] Neither is this fight,
[Reagan] apparently.
[Rush Lindell] No kidding.
[Reagan] Well,
[Reagan] thanks for spending the hour with us.
[Rush Lindell] We'll see you tomorrow.
[Reagan] Stay sharp out there.