1 00:00:15,348 --> 00:00:16,248 [Rush Lindell] Rush Lindell here, 2 00:00:16,448 --> 00:00:17,847 [Rush Lindell] back behind the mic, and Reagan, 3 00:00:18,097 --> 00:00:18,798 [Rush Lindell] good to have you. 4 00:00:19,097 --> 00:00:20,498 [Reagan] Always good to be here, Rush. 5 00:00:20,698 --> 00:00:22,147 [Rush Lindell] We've got a loaded hour. 6 00:00:22,448 --> 00:00:23,698 [Rush Lindell] Iran's back in the headlines, 7 00:00:23,848 --> 00:00:25,348 [Rush Lindell] and this time it is ugly. 8 00:00:25,698 --> 00:00:26,898 [Reagan] The MOU is dead! 9 00:00:27,097 --> 00:00:31,148 [Reagan] Trump said so himself at the NATO summit and everything moved fast after that. 10 00:00:31,148 --> 00:00:32,847 [Rush Lindell] We're walking that whole timeline. 11 00:00:33,097 --> 00:00:34,148 [Rush Lindell] The tanker attacks, 12 00:00:34,448 --> 00:00:34,948 [Rush Lindell] the strikes, 13 00:00:35,198 --> 00:00:36,798 [Rush Lindell] the reversal nobody saw coming. 14 00:00:36,998 --> 00:00:38,448 [Reagan] And then there's the money side. 15 00:00:38,798 --> 00:00:39,448 [Reagan] Oil's moving, 16 00:00:39,648 --> 00:00:40,748 [Reagan] gas prices are moving, 17 00:00:40,848 --> 00:00:42,248 [Reagan] and midterms are closing in fast. 18 00:00:42,036 --> 00:00:42,686 [Reagan] and fast. 19 00:00:42,736 --> 00:00:47,036 [Rush Lindell] Oh, and we're settling the scorecard. Who actually called this thing right? 20 00:00:47,335 --> 00:00:47,786 [Reagan] Careful, 21 00:00:48,085 --> 00:00:48,886 [Reagan] I've got a memory. 22 00:00:49,136 --> 00:00:49,936 [Rush Lindell] So do I, 23 00:00:49,986 --> 00:00:50,236 [Rush Lindell] Reagan. 24 00:00:50,436 --> 00:00:51,186 [Rush Lindell] That's the problem. 25 00:00:51,486 --> 00:00:55,836 [Reagan] Let's separate the rhetoric from the reality later once the receipts are on the table. 26 00:00:55,986 --> 00:00:57,236 [Rush Lindell] Let me tell you something. 27 00:00:57,386 --> 00:00:58,936 [Rush Lindell] I love it when you say that. 28 00:00:59,186 --> 00:00:59,835 [Reagan] I know you do. 29 00:01:00,085 --> 00:01:02,335 [Rush Lindell] Later on, stick around for a parody bit. 30 00:01:02,585 --> 00:01:06,036 [Rush Lindell] Iran's foreign ministry gets a Yelp review courtesy of yours truly. 31 00:01:06,385 --> 00:01:08,736 [Reagan] I'm already bracing to fact check that one. 32 00:01:08,885 --> 00:01:10,036 [Rush Lindell] You always do. 33 00:01:10,085 --> 00:01:10,936 [Rush Lindell] But first... 34 00:01:10,739 --> 00:01:13,039 [Rush Lindell] First, this hour is brought to you by Lear Capital, 35 00:01:13,390 --> 00:01:15,739 [Rush Lindell] America's precious metals leader since 1997. 36 00:01:16,339 --> 00:01:19,089 [Reagan] Good partner to have when the world looks like it does right now. 37 00:01:19,089 --> 00:01:20,189 [Rush Lindell] All right, Reagan, 38 00:01:20,289 --> 00:01:22,339 [Rush Lindell] walk me through how we actually got here. 39 00:01:22,739 --> 00:01:23,239 [Reagan] Happy to. 40 00:01:23,339 --> 00:01:24,689 [Reagan] Let's start with the tankers. 41 00:01:30,067 --> 00:01:32,367 [Rush Lindell] Before we dive in, a quick reminder, 42 00:01:32,518 --> 00:01:34,367 [Rush Lindell] we love hearing from you. 43 00:01:34,518 --> 00:01:37,067 [Rush Lindell] If you have questions or topics you'd like us to cover, 44 00:01:37,218 --> 00:01:40,018 [Rush Lindell] head to the link in the description and submit your question. 45 00:01:40,117 --> 00:01:42,168 [Rush Lindell] We read every single one. 46 00:01:47,635 --> 00:01:48,135 [Rush Lindell] Okay, 47 00:01:48,235 --> 00:01:50,185 [Rush Lindell] we called this a month ago. 48 00:01:50,335 --> 00:01:53,085 [Rush Lindell] We sat right here and argued about this deal. 49 00:01:53,185 --> 00:01:56,536 [Rush Lindell] I said masterstroke, Reagan said surrender. 50 00:01:56,735 --> 00:01:57,685 [Rush Lindell] And tonight, folks, 51 00:01:57,935 --> 00:01:59,485 [Rush Lindell] we're grading ourselves, 52 00:01:59,585 --> 00:02:01,735 [Rush Lindell] because the deal, it's dead. 53 00:02:02,335 --> 00:02:07,385 [Reagan] Dead as in officially dead or dead as in Rush's-dramatic-voice dead? 54 00:02:07,924 --> 00:02:08,524 [Rush Lindell] Both. 55 00:02:08,873 --> 00:02:12,924 [Rush Lindell] ABC News reports Trump stood at the NATO summit in Ankara and said, 56 00:02:12,974 --> 00:02:13,324 [Rush Lindell] quote, 57 00:02:13,474 --> 00:02:15,224 [Rush Lindell] for me, I think it's over. 58 00:02:15,524 --> 00:02:17,373 [Reagan] Not exactly Churchill, 59 00:02:17,623 --> 00:02:19,074 [Reagan] but it gets the point across. 60 00:02:19,524 --> 00:02:21,274 [Rush Lindell] And here's the line that got me, 61 00:02:21,373 --> 00:02:21,574 [Rush Lindell] Reagan. 62 00:02:21,824 --> 00:02:23,424 [Rush Lindell] He didn't just walk away. 63 00:02:23,524 --> 00:02:27,524 [Rush Lindell] He called the Iranian leadership scum multiple times, 64 00:02:27,624 --> 00:02:29,674 [Rush Lindell] said he doesn't want to deal with them anymore. 65 00:02:30,224 --> 00:02:32,074 [Reagan] That's a real shift in language. 66 00:02:32,274 --> 00:02:33,174 [Reagan] A month ago, 67 00:02:33,224 --> 00:02:34,124 [Reagan] this was a breakthrough. 68 00:02:34,324 --> 00:02:35,824 [Reagan] Tonight it's scum. 69 00:02:36,224 --> 00:02:40,374 [Rush Lindell] That's not a shift-that's a full one eighty with the tires screeching. 70 00:02:41,012 --> 00:02:45,412 [Reagan] I'll give you this much-the rhetoric matches the moment; it's not measured any more. 71 00:02:45,762 --> 00:02:55,412 [Rush Lindell] So tonight we're not doing the same tired timeline recap everybody else is doing; we're pulling the receipts-our receipts-what we said, 72 00:02:55,562 --> 00:02:56,262 [Rush Lindell] what he said, 73 00:02:56,512 --> 00:02:57,762 [Rush Lindell] what actually happened. 74 00:02:58,361 --> 00:03:02,012 [Reagan] So-you're sure you want to revisit what you said a month ago? 75 00:03:02,812 --> 00:03:03,512 [Rush Lindell] Terrified, 76 00:03:03,711 --> 00:03:05,162 [Rush Lindell] absolutely terrified, 77 00:03:05,412 --> 00:03:06,312 [Rush Lindell] but let's do it anyway. 78 00:03:06,961 --> 00:03:09,961 [Reagan] So if the man who brokered this deal is now calling 79 00:03:09,961 --> 00:03:10,262 [Speaker 3] for its collapse, why aren't you? 80 00:03:09,716 --> 00:03:13,216 [Reagan] Now calling the other side scum on camera at a NATO summit, 81 00:03:13,216 --> 00:03:13,415 [Rush Lindell] Right. 82 00:03:13,415 --> 00:03:16,116 [Reagan] what exactly happened in Ankara to get us here? 83 00:03:21,620 --> 00:03:22,319 [Rush Lindell] Ankara, 84 00:03:22,569 --> 00:03:23,219 [Rush Lindell] NATO summit, 85 00:03:23,620 --> 00:03:26,420 [Rush Lindell] and somewhere between the group photo and the state dinner, 86 00:03:26,920 --> 00:03:28,569 [Rush Lindell] Trump torches his own deal. 87 00:03:28,670 --> 00:03:30,620 [Reagan] Walk me through what actually triggered it. 88 00:03:30,920 --> 00:03:33,420 [Rush Lindell] Three tankers hit in the Strait of Hormuz. 89 00:03:33,870 --> 00:03:37,770 [Rush Lindell] CENTCOM answers by striking more than 80 Iranian targets. 90 00:03:37,819 --> 00:03:40,069 [Rush Lindell] That's ABC News reporting it this morning. 91 00:03:40,170 --> 00:03:41,420 [Reagan] 80 targets? 92 00:03:41,520 --> 00:03:43,219 [Reagan] That's not a slap on the wrist. 93 00:03:43,319 --> 00:03:45,219 [Rush Lindell] And here's the part I can't get over. 94 00:03:45,420 --> 00:03:46,520 [Rush Lindell] Just last month, 95 00:03:46,719 --> 00:03:47,819 [Rush Lindell] this same president 96 00:03:47,955 --> 00:03:49,305 [Rush Lindell] Called Iran's leaders, 97 00:03:49,506 --> 00:03:49,756 [Rush Lindell] quote, 98 00:03:49,955 --> 00:03:50,555 [Rush Lindell] rational, 99 00:03:50,905 --> 00:03:51,405 [Rush Lindell] nice, 100 00:03:51,705 --> 00:03:52,355 [Rush Lindell] strong, 101 00:03:52,506 --> 00:03:53,006 [Rush Lindell] and smart. 102 00:03:53,305 --> 00:03:54,405 [Reagan] I remember that line. 103 00:03:54,756 --> 00:03:59,055 [Rush Lindell] So a reporter asks him point blank what changed and Trump says, 104 00:03:59,155 --> 00:04:00,506 [Rush Lindell] and I'm not making this up, 105 00:04:00,905 --> 00:04:02,506 [Rush Lindell] I got to know them. 106 00:04:02,655 --> 00:04:05,705 [Reagan] Four weeks. That's the whole diplomatic arc. 107 00:04:06,006 --> 00:04:06,955 [Rush Lindell] Four weeks, 108 00:04:07,055 --> 00:04:07,355 [Rush Lindell] Reagan. 109 00:04:07,705 --> 00:04:13,156 [Rush Lindell] Nice and smart to scum in one press gaggle. I'm calling it the anchor flip. 110 00:04:13,156 --> 00:04:13,705 [Reagan] Okay, 111 00:04:13,756 --> 00:04:15,855 [Reagan] but let's separate the theater from the sequence. 112 00:04:16,526 --> 00:04:20,576 [Reagan] ABC News says he huddled with advisers Tuesday before the strikes landed, 113 00:04:20,826 --> 00:04:22,376 [Reagan] not after some tantrum in the hallway. 114 00:04:22,675 --> 00:04:23,175 [Rush Lindell] Sure, 115 00:04:23,276 --> 00:04:23,876 [Rush Lindell] he huddled, 116 00:04:24,126 --> 00:04:26,076 [Rush Lindell] then declared the whole memorandum did, 117 00:04:26,126 --> 00:04:27,026 [Rush Lindell] by Wednesday morning! 118 00:04:27,276 --> 00:04:35,826 [Reagan] Right; and that timing matters because at the same time Washington yanked the sanctions waiver on Iranian oil sales directly tied to those tanker attacks. 119 00:04:36,225 --> 00:04:39,526 [Rush Lindell] So it's not just insults-real leverage pulled overnight. 120 00:04:39,925 --> 00:04:42,526 [Reagan] Which raises the stakes for how Tehran responds. 121 00:04:42,675 --> 00:04:42,825 [Reagan] Evans. 122 00:04:43,125 --> 00:04:45,175 [Rush Lindell] And Tehran did not sit quiet. 123 00:04:45,425 --> 00:04:46,825 [Reagan] Iran's parliament speaker, 124 00:04:47,026 --> 00:04:47,625 [Reagan] Ghalibaf, 125 00:04:47,776 --> 00:04:49,125 [Reagan] their chief negotiator, 126 00:04:49,325 --> 00:04:52,276 [Reagan] posted that the U S violated the M O U outright. 127 00:04:52,675 --> 00:04:53,175 [Reagan] His line, 128 00:04:53,375 --> 00:04:56,075 [Reagan] the era of bullying and extortion is over. 129 00:04:56,325 --> 00:04:57,175 [Reagan] It leads nowhere. 130 00:04:57,475 --> 00:04:58,225 [Reagan] We don't fold. 131 00:04:58,475 --> 00:05:02,026 [Rush Lindell] Strong words from a government that's about to start counting bodies. 132 00:05:02,175 --> 00:05:07,776 [Reagan] Which is exactly the number we need to look at next because Tehran's putting out a toll and it's not small. 133 00:05:08,225 --> 00:05:09,825 [Rush Lindell] One question before we go there. 134 00:05:09,779 --> 00:05:09,879 [Rush Lindell] There. 135 00:05:10,079 --> 00:05:14,229 [Rush Lindell] If I got to know them is the President's actual foreign policy, 136 00:05:14,529 --> 00:05:17,079 [Rush Lindell] what happens the next time he changes his mind? 137 00:05:17,229 --> 00:05:18,729 [Reagan] That's the receipt we're keeping. 138 00:05:24,229 --> 00:05:24,829 [Rush Lindell] Sure, 139 00:05:24,879 --> 00:05:26,379 [Rush Lindell] sets aside the theater for a second, 140 00:05:26,429 --> 00:05:27,529 [Rush Lindell] the numbers here are brutal. 141 00:05:28,079 --> 00:05:31,129 [Rush Lindell] Iran's health ministry says at least 50 people are dead, 142 00:05:31,279 --> 00:05:32,529 [Rush Lindell] over 500 injured, 143 00:05:32,729 --> 00:05:33,429 [Rush Lindell] just this month. 144 00:05:33,779 --> 00:05:34,429 [Rush Lindell] 50? 145 00:05:34,629 --> 00:05:35,779 [Rush Lindell] That's not a headline, 146 00:05:35,879 --> 00:05:36,729 [Rush Lindell] that's a body count. 147 00:05:37,129 --> 00:05:40,679 [Rush Lindell] And Al Jazeera is reporting ties some of that directly to infrastructure. 148 00:05:41,079 --> 00:05:42,879 [Rush Lindell] A desalination plant got hit, 149 00:05:43,029 --> 00:05:45,229 [Rush Lindell] leaving 10,000 people without water. 150 00:05:45,729 --> 00:05:46,079 [Rush Lindell] Wait, 151 00:05:46,379 --> 00:05:47,229 [Rush Lindell] a water plant, 152 00:05:47,479 --> 00:05:48,379 [Rush Lindell] not a missile site, 153 00:05:48,529 --> 00:05:49,129 [Rush Lindell] not a base, 154 00:05:49,329 --> 00:05:49,729 [Rush Lindell] water? 155 00:05:50,279 --> 00:05:51,229 [Rush Lindell] That's what's being reported. 156 00:05:51,579 --> 00:05:59,279 [Rush Lindell] And Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi is now saying flatly the U.S. has violated and suspended all its commitments under the MOU. 157 00:06:00,014 --> 00:06:00,913 [Rush Lindell] Suspended, 158 00:06:01,064 --> 00:06:01,413 [Rush Lindell] sure, 159 00:06:01,514 --> 00:06:04,764 [Rush Lindell] because striking back at Bahrain and Kuwait is real diplomatic! 160 00:06:05,514 --> 00:06:05,814 [Rush Lindell] Right, 161 00:06:06,064 --> 00:06:07,213 [Rush Lindell] that's the retaliation: 162 00:06:07,463 --> 00:06:13,463 [Rush Lindell] Tehran hit two U.S. allies in the Gulf and CENTCOM's reporting American service members killed in Jordan. 163 00:06:14,064 --> 00:06:14,463 [Rush Lindell] Okay, 164 00:06:14,663 --> 00:06:14,963 [Rush Lindell] Reagan, 165 00:06:15,114 --> 00:06:16,963 [Rush Lindell] that's the part nobody's saying loud enough: 166 00:06:17,163 --> 00:06:18,663 [Rush Lindell] we're not watching Iran anymore, 167 00:06:18,913 --> 00:06:20,864 [Rush Lindell] we're watching the whole neighborhood catch fire. 168 00:06:21,463 --> 00:06:27,663 [Rush Lindell] Seven straight nights of CENTCOM strikes now; this isn't a skirmish, it's the worst stretch since the cease fire fell apart. 169 00:06:28,084 --> 00:06:33,684 [Rush Lindell] And every night we act shocked, like this wasn't exactly where MOUs over was always going to lead. 170 00:06:34,134 --> 00:06:35,033 [Rush Lindell] I'll give you that one. 171 00:06:35,334 --> 00:06:38,434 [Rush Lindell] Escalation begets escalation. That part isn't complicated. 172 00:06:38,934 --> 00:06:39,384 [Rush Lindell] No, 173 00:06:39,533 --> 00:06:45,084 [Rush Lindell] it isn't. What is complicated is explaining to a guy filling up his tank why any of this matters to him. 174 00:06:45,634 --> 00:06:46,533 [Rush Lindell] Funny you say that, 175 00:06:46,634 --> 00:06:47,983 [Rush Lindell] because it already does. 176 00:06:48,283 --> 00:06:48,983 [Rush Lindell] Crude is moving, 177 00:06:49,134 --> 00:06:50,134 [Rush Lindell] and it's moving fast. 178 00:06:50,384 --> 00:06:51,584 [Rush Lindell] Oh, here we go. 179 00:06:51,783 --> 00:06:53,884 [Rush Lindell] Let's talk about what this is actually costing people. 180 00:06:59,411 --> 00:07:00,012 [Rush Lindell] Rush. 181 00:07:00,101 --> 00:07:01,701 [Rush Lindell] Shifting to the money side of this, 182 00:07:02,001 --> 00:07:04,301 [Rush Lindell] US crude jumped about six per cent, 183 00:07:04,501 --> 00:07:06,501 [Rush Lindell] near seventy four sixty two a barrel, 184 00:07:06,851 --> 00:07:09,301 [Rush Lindell] right after Trump called Iran's leaders "scum. 185 00:07:09,451 --> 00:07:17,301 [Reagan] CFR's read matters here-still nowhere close to the near one hundred and twenty dollar high we saw before the MOU collapsed, 186 00:07:17,801 --> 00:07:21,751 [Reagan] but traders don't grade on 'still lower'--they trade on direction. 187 00:07:22,001 --> 00:07:25,451 [Rush Lindell] Direction's everything in this business-green arrow goes up, 188 00:07:25,651 --> 00:07:27,301 [Rush Lindell] the gas station line gets longer. 189 00:07:27,513 --> 00:07:28,763 [Rush Lindell] Every time. 190 00:07:29,013 --> 00:07:32,013 [Reagan] There's also a clock nobody's naming out loud. 191 00:07:32,463 --> 00:07:34,213 [Reagan] Strategist Karl Rove's been blunt: 192 00:07:34,663 --> 00:07:38,863 [Reagan] this needs resolving by Labor Day because the fall campaign starts right after. 193 00:07:39,013 --> 00:07:42,863 [Rush Lindell] Nothing sharpens a politician's focus like a midterm map. 194 00:07:43,013 --> 00:07:44,463 [Reagan] And here's the odd part: 195 00:07:44,913 --> 00:07:47,113 [Reagan] the strait itself isn't fully shut. 196 00:07:47,513 --> 00:07:47,963 [Reagan] A U.S. 197 00:07:48,063 --> 00:07:54,313 [Reagan] defense official told reporters over a hundred vessels coordinated transits with the military last week alone. 198 00:07:54,661 --> 00:07:57,411 [Reagan] More than three hundred moved through the wider region. 199 00:07:57,611 --> 00:08:00,561 [Rush Lindell] A hundred ships still crossing a war zone? 200 00:08:00,661 --> 00:08:01,511 [Reagan] Still crossing. 201 00:08:02,011 --> 00:08:02,411 [Reagan] Slower, 202 00:08:02,761 --> 00:08:03,761 [Reagan] pricier insurance, 203 00:08:03,961 --> 00:08:04,561 [Reagan] but moving. 204 00:08:05,061 --> 00:08:07,261 [Reagan] The choke point spooked, not closed. 205 00:08:07,811 --> 00:08:09,311 [Reagan] Different story for your gas bill, 206 00:08:09,411 --> 00:08:09,511 [Reagan] though. 207 00:08:09,511 --> 00:08:10,861 [Rush Lindell] Which is exactly why, 208 00:08:10,961 --> 00:08:13,211 [Rush Lindell] if you're watching oil bounce around like this, 209 00:08:13,211 --> 00:08:13,361 [Reagan] You 210 00:08:13,361 --> 00:08:13,611 [Rush Lindell] Since 211 00:08:13,611 --> 00:08:16,611 [Reagan] start thinking about where money hides when things get shaky. 212 00:08:17,061 --> 00:08:17,661 [Rush Lindell] 2020, 213 00:08:18,111 --> 00:08:21,361 [Rush Lindell] the silver price has risen more than 220%. 214 00:08:21,465 --> 00:08:22,015 [Reagan] Why? 215 00:08:22,315 --> 00:08:28,065 [Reagan] Because rising demand for solar and electric vehicles alone has put silver supply into a deficit. 216 00:08:28,315 --> 00:08:30,115 [Rush Lindell] But now there's another industry: 217 00:08:30,465 --> 00:08:30,765 [Rush Lindell] AI 218 00:08:31,165 --> 00:08:32,065 [Reagan] Data centers, 219 00:08:32,265 --> 00:08:32,715 [Reagan] robots, 220 00:08:32,865 --> 00:08:37,965 [Reagan] and quantum computing could require so much silver that silver supplies could be obliterated. 221 00:08:38,065 --> 00:08:41,165 [Rush Lindell] Could silver rise another two hundred and twenty percent? 222 00:08:41,415 --> 00:08:48,015 [Reagan] Find out by texting RUSH to four three three four three to request their special report The AI Revolution. 223 00:08:48,089 --> 00:08:48,289 [Reagan] solution. 224 00:08:48,489 --> 00:08:50,989 [Rush Lindell] See why billions are being poured into AI, 225 00:08:51,139 --> 00:08:53,789 [Rush Lindell] and how silver could be your best investment this year. 226 00:08:53,839 --> 00:08:57,489 [Reagan] Also ask how you can get up to twenty thousand dollars in bonus silver. 227 00:08:57,689 --> 00:08:58,539 [Rush Lindell] Lear Capital, 228 00:08:58,839 --> 00:08:59,939 [Rush Lindell] your trusted source, 229 00:09:00,139 --> 00:09:04,439 [Rush Lindell] over three billion dollars in transactions and thousands of five star reviews. 230 00:09:04,789 --> 00:09:07,189 [Reagan] Text RUSH to four three three four three. 231 00:09:07,389 --> 00:09:07,939 [Rush Lindell] Okay, 232 00:09:08,239 --> 00:09:08,939 [Rush Lindell] pump prices, 233 00:09:09,189 --> 00:09:09,789 [Rush Lindell] midterms, 234 00:09:09,989 --> 00:09:13,089 [Rush Lindell] silver hedges ... that's the wallet side of this whole mess. 235 00:09:13,089 --> 00:09:13,339 [Speaker 4] Yeah. 236 00:09:13,339 --> 00:09:15,639 [Reagan] Which means it's time to check the receipts. 237 00:09:15,833 --> 00:09:21,333 [Reagan] A month ago, we had this exact fight on air over whether that 14-point deal was a win. 238 00:09:21,333 --> 00:09:23,883 [Rush Lindell] And I remember exactly what I said. 239 00:09:23,883 --> 00:09:24,833 [Reagan] So do I. 240 00:09:25,033 --> 00:09:26,383 [Reagan] Let's find out who was right. 241 00:09:31,577 --> 00:09:32,177 [Rush Lindell] Okay, 242 00:09:32,327 --> 00:09:32,577 [Rush Lindell] Reagan, 243 00:09:32,777 --> 00:09:33,977 [Rush Lindell] time to eat some words, 244 00:09:34,227 --> 00:09:35,277 [Rush Lindell] mine mostly. 245 00:09:35,827 --> 00:09:37,477 [Reagan] I was wondering when we'd get here! 246 00:09:37,977 --> 00:09:41,827 [Rush Lindell] Last month I called that fourteen point MOU a win, 247 00:09:42,177 --> 00:09:45,077 [Rush Lindell] a real honest Trump-earned win. 248 00:09:45,527 --> 00:09:48,277 [Reagan] And I said it was a pause dressed up as peace. 249 00:09:48,877 --> 00:09:50,277 [Rush Lindell] I was closer. 250 00:09:50,827 --> 00:09:52,827 [Reagan] I'll take it; but let's be fair to you, 251 00:09:53,027 --> 00:09:55,527 [Reagan] too; the shipping numbers did calm down for a while. 252 00:09:55,777 --> 00:09:56,577 [Rush Lindell] They did, 253 00:09:56,827 --> 00:09:57,827 [Rush Lindell] for about six weeks. 254 00:09:58,201 --> 00:09:58,801 [Rush Lindell] Then, 255 00:09:59,351 --> 00:09:59,601 [Rush Lindell] boom! 256 00:10:00,051 --> 00:10:00,451 [Reagan] Right, 257 00:10:00,601 --> 00:10:01,801 [Reagan] and that's not random. 258 00:10:02,301 --> 00:10:04,051 [Reagan] According to Council on Foreign Relations, 259 00:10:04,201 --> 00:10:09,201 [Reagan] the MOU only guaranteed Iran sixty days of toll free shipping through Hormuz. 260 00:10:09,701 --> 00:10:11,851 [Rush Lindell] Sixty days like a lease! 261 00:10:12,451 --> 00:10:18,951 [Reagan] Like a lease nobody read the fine print on; that clock was running the entire time we were calling it a masterstroke. 262 00:10:19,901 --> 00:10:24,851 [Rush Lindell] So the thing had an expiration date and everybody just didn't mention it? 263 00:10:25,113 --> 00:10:27,363 [Reagan] Didn't mention it or didn't want to? 264 00:10:27,613 --> 00:10:28,813 [Rush Lindell] That's on me. 265 00:10:29,113 --> 00:10:31,063 [Rush Lindell] I was so locked into the win narrative, 266 00:10:31,163 --> 00:10:32,513 [Rush Lindell] I skipped the fine print. 267 00:10:32,763 --> 00:10:34,813 [Reagan] I flagged the 60 days back then, 268 00:10:34,913 --> 00:10:37,113 [Reagan] but even I didn't think it'd blow up this fast. 269 00:10:37,513 --> 00:10:39,213 [Rush Lindell] So we're both wrong, 270 00:10:39,413 --> 00:10:40,713 [Rush Lindell] just in different directions. 271 00:10:41,263 --> 00:10:41,713 [Reagan] Basically. 272 00:10:42,213 --> 00:10:46,913 [Reagan] Now CFR's Max Boot wrote something today that I think nails the bigger picture. 273 00:10:47,163 --> 00:10:47,913 [Rush Lindell] Go on. 274 00:10:48,363 --> 00:10:52,813 [Reagan] Boot argues Trump is facing the same trap every president before him hit. 275 00:10:52,665 --> 00:10:55,615 [Reagan] Hit—A limited war fought with limited means, 276 00:10:55,815 --> 00:10:57,165 [Reagan] producing limited results. 277 00:10:57,765 --> 00:10:58,565 [Rush Lindell] Say that again. 278 00:10:59,115 --> 00:10:59,965 [Reagan] Limited war, 279 00:11:00,315 --> 00:11:01,115 [Reagan] limited means, 280 00:11:01,465 --> 00:11:04,365 [Reagan] limited results; no path through regime change, 281 00:11:04,615 --> 00:11:06,465 [Reagan] no appetite at home for more. 282 00:11:06,965 --> 00:11:08,715 [Rush Lindell] And that's the part that gets me. 283 00:11:08,965 --> 00:11:11,115 [Rush Lindell] We keep acting like this time is different! 284 00:11:11,615 --> 00:11:13,565 [Reagan] It never is-not with Iran, 285 00:11:13,815 --> 00:11:15,515 [Reagan] not with this kind of pressure campaign. 286 00:11:15,915 --> 00:11:19,115 [Rush Lindell] So was the MOU a win or a surrender? 287 00:11:19,449 --> 00:11:22,699 [Reagan] Neither; it was a countdown clock we dressed up as diplomacy. 288 00:11:23,249 --> 00:11:27,049 [Rush Lindell] Fine-I overstated it; you called the structure, 289 00:11:27,549 --> 00:11:28,649 [Rush Lindell] I called the vibe. 290 00:11:29,099 --> 00:11:30,049 [Reagan] The vibe was good, 291 00:11:30,149 --> 00:11:30,799 [Reagan] for what it's worth. 292 00:11:31,843 --> 00:11:33,293 [Rush Lindell] Thanks-small comfort. 293 00:11:33,693 --> 00:11:36,093 [Reagan] But structure is what breaks every time. 294 00:11:36,593 --> 00:11:37,093 [Rush Lindell] Mm hmm. 295 00:11:37,543 --> 00:11:38,093 [Rush Lindell] All right, 296 00:11:38,343 --> 00:11:39,543 [Rush Lindell] I've owned my part, 297 00:11:39,743 --> 00:11:41,843 [Rush Lindell] you've owned yours-grades are in. 298 00:11:42,193 --> 00:11:42,993 [Reagan] Grades are in. 299 00:11:43,343 --> 00:11:45,293 [Rush Lindell] But you know what nobody's graded yet? 300 00:11:45,643 --> 00:11:45,993 [Reagan] What? 301 00:11:46,343 --> 00:11:50,193 [Rush Lindell] The way this whole thing sounded from Tehran's side once it collapsed. 302 00:11:50,693 --> 00:11:50,943 [Reagan] Oh, 303 00:11:51,043 --> 00:11:51,743 [Reagan] I have thoughts. 304 00:11:52,293 --> 00:11:55,493 [Rush Lindell] Oh, we've got thoughts-wait till you hear how we're framing it! 305 00:11:55,843 --> 00:11:57,143 [Reagan] This is gonna be a bit, 306 00:11:57,193 --> 00:11:57,543 [Reagan] isn't it? 307 00:11:57,893 --> 00:11:58,943 [Rush Lindell] It's already written! 308 00:12:04,357 --> 00:12:08,257 [Rush Lindell] Building on that one more bit before we get serious again. 309 00:12:08,507 --> 00:12:09,357 [Reagan] Oh no. 310 00:12:09,757 --> 00:12:13,057 [Rush Lindell] Picture Iran's foreign ministry on Yelp. 311 00:12:13,457 --> 00:12:17,757 [Rush Lindell] Mock bureaucrat. Ordered de-escalation. Received 80 targets. 312 00:12:17,857 --> 00:12:18,557 [Rush Lindell] One star. 313 00:12:19,057 --> 00:12:21,607 [Reagan] You said two stars a second ago in rehearsal. 314 00:12:22,357 --> 00:12:24,757 [Rush Lindell] Inconsistent reviewer. Sue him. 315 00:12:25,241 --> 00:12:25,941 [Reagan] Keep going. 316 00:12:26,641 --> 00:12:27,091 [Rush Lindell] Now, 317 00:12:27,241 --> 00:12:27,741 [Rush Lindell] flip it. 318 00:12:28,091 --> 00:12:28,791 [Rush Lindell] Trump side, 319 00:12:29,091 --> 00:12:31,491 [Rush Lindell] used car lot ad; announcer voice, 320 00:12:31,791 --> 00:12:32,841 [Rush Lindell] Iranian leadership, 321 00:12:33,241 --> 00:12:33,691 [Rush Lindell] rational, 322 00:12:33,991 --> 00:12:34,291 [Rush Lindell] nice, 323 00:12:34,541 --> 00:12:34,941 [Rush Lindell] strong, 324 00:12:35,191 --> 00:12:35,541 [Rush Lindell] smart, 325 00:12:35,791 --> 00:12:36,391 [Rush Lindell] won't last, 326 00:12:36,491 --> 00:12:36,741 [Rush Lindell] folks, 327 00:12:37,041 --> 00:12:37,291 [Rush Lindell] now, 328 00:12:37,541 --> 00:12:37,991 [Rush Lindell] scum, 329 00:12:38,241 --> 00:12:38,591 [Rush Lindell] certified, 330 00:12:38,941 --> 00:12:40,341 [Rush Lindell] as in no warranty. 331 00:12:41,341 --> 00:12:43,391 [Reagan] That rhythm is unfortunately perfect. 332 00:12:44,211 --> 00:12:44,861 [Rush Lindell] Two weeks' 333 00:12:45,111 --> 00:12:46,311 [Rush Lindell] compliment to insult, 334 00:12:46,511 --> 00:12:47,611 [Rush Lindell] that's the whole pitch. 335 00:12:48,261 --> 00:12:57,861 [Reagan] Except the joke skips WHY the sign flipped." ABC News reported CENTCOM hit over eighty targets after Iran attacked merchant ships in Hormuz first. 336 00:12:58,511 --> 00:12:58,961 [Rush Lindell] Fair, 337 00:12:59,161 --> 00:13:00,361 [Rush Lindell] the salesman had a reason. 338 00:13:00,911 --> 00:13:05,211 [Reagan] Doesn't make the whiplash less funny; just means it's not one sided theater. 339 00:13:05,689 --> 00:13:06,389 [Rush Lindell] Fine, 340 00:13:06,639 --> 00:13:07,639 [Rush Lindell] rewrite the review: 341 00:13:08,089 --> 00:13:10,989 [Rush Lindell] Ordered cease fire received mutual escalation. 342 00:13:11,339 --> 00:13:13,889 [Rush Lindell] Both parties left one star reviews on each other. 343 00:13:14,789 --> 00:13:15,739 [Reagan] There it is, 344 00:13:15,939 --> 00:13:17,189 [Reagan] equal opportunity mockery. 345 00:13:17,889 --> 00:13:21,689 [Rush Lindell] And Al Jazeera's got the real casualty count behind the punch line: 346 00:13:22,139 --> 00:13:24,989 [Rush Lindell] fifty dead this month per Iran's health ministry. 347 00:13:25,339 --> 00:13:25,989 [Rush Lindell] So laugh, 348 00:13:26,089 --> 00:13:27,039 [Rush Lindell] but not too hard. 349 00:13:27,589 --> 00:13:28,289 [Reagan] NOTED: 350 00:13:28,689 --> 00:13:29,839 [Reagan] Comedy with a conscience. 351 00:13:35,649 --> 00:13:37,299 [Rush Lindell] Building on that circus, 352 00:13:37,549 --> 00:13:39,299 [Rush Lindell] let's do the actual scorecard: 353 00:13:39,499 --> 00:13:40,749 [Rush Lindell] Who called this right? 354 00:13:41,149 --> 00:13:41,649 [Reagan] Honestly, 355 00:13:41,999 --> 00:13:43,699 [Reagan] not me on the ceasefire holding. 356 00:13:44,049 --> 00:13:46,549 [Reagan] But I called the 60 day window nobody read. 357 00:13:46,949 --> 00:13:47,349 [Rush Lindell] Yeah, 358 00:13:47,599 --> 00:13:48,399 [Rush Lindell] that one's yours. 359 00:13:48,699 --> 00:13:50,249 [Rush Lindell] I said deal of the century. 360 00:13:50,549 --> 00:13:51,899 [Rush Lindell] It was a deal of the month. 361 00:13:52,249 --> 00:13:53,349 [Reagan] To month's generous. 362 00:13:54,049 --> 00:13:55,049 [Rush Lindell] Fair, 363 00:13:55,299 --> 00:13:55,699 [Rush Lindell] fair. 364 00:13:56,049 --> 00:13:58,449 [Reagan] But here's what actually matters going forward: 365 00:13:58,949 --> 00:14:00,049 [Reagan] CFR's Max Boot. 366 00:14:00,202 --> 00:14:02,352 [Rush Lindell] lays out Trump's real problem now. 367 00:14:02,502 --> 00:14:10,302 [Rush Lindell] He's stuck choosing between letting Iran toll ships through Hormuz or escalating further with no clear military endgame. 368 00:14:10,402 --> 00:14:11,852 [Reagan] Neither one's a win. 369 00:14:12,202 --> 00:14:12,602 [Rush Lindell] Right. 370 00:14:12,902 --> 00:14:17,052 [Rush Lindell] Al Jazeera reported CENTCOM just ran its seventh straight night of strikes. 371 00:14:17,252 --> 00:14:18,802 [Rush Lindell] That's not a skirmish anymore. 372 00:14:19,002 --> 00:14:19,752 [Rush Lindell] That's a pattern. 373 00:14:20,002 --> 00:14:22,102 [Reagan] So what are we watching next week? 374 00:14:22,302 --> 00:14:27,052 [Rush Lindell] Whether Tehran's negotiator actually comes back to the table, or whether suspended 375 00:14:27,198 --> 00:14:28,948 [Rush Lindell] Deal Quietly Becomes Dead 376 00:14:29,448 --> 00:14:34,298 [Reagan] I'm watching the oil futures; if Hormuz traffic drops instead of just slowing, 377 00:14:34,648 --> 00:14:35,848 [Reagan] that's the real siren. 378 00:14:36,198 --> 00:14:39,198 [Rush Lindell] And don't sleep on the calendar-midterms are coming, 379 00:14:39,348 --> 00:14:41,698 [Rush Lindell] and nobody votes on foreign policy nuance. 380 00:14:42,348 --> 00:14:44,098 [Reagan] They vote on the number at the pump! 381 00:14:44,398 --> 00:14:44,998 [Rush Lindell] Exactly. 382 00:14:45,398 --> 00:14:48,898 [Rush Lindell] Diplomacy might not decide what happens next-gas prices might. 383 00:14:49,298 --> 00:14:50,548 [Reagan] And that's the verdict, 384 00:14:50,698 --> 00:14:50,998 [Reagan] folks: 385 00:14:51,298 --> 00:14:53,848 [Reagan] this war isn't being won on the battlefield- 386 00:14:53,694 --> 00:14:55,344 [Reagan] around or the negotiating table. 387 00:14:55,694 --> 00:14:57,544 [Rush Lindell] It's being decided at the gas station. 388 00:14:57,894 --> 00:14:58,994 [Reagan] Write that down. 389 00:14:59,244 --> 00:15:00,694 [Reagan] We'll see who's right in November. 390 00:15:06,294 --> 00:15:07,694 [Reagan] So that's the hour: 391 00:15:07,994 --> 00:15:08,494 [Reagan] Iran, 392 00:15:08,644 --> 00:15:09,294 [Reagan] Hormuz, 393 00:15:09,494 --> 00:15:10,244 [Reagan] and Rush. 394 00:15:10,494 --> 00:15:11,094 [Reagan] Wait, sorry, 395 00:15:11,194 --> 00:15:14,044 [Reagan] I mean me getting called out on my own prediction. 396 00:15:14,544 --> 00:15:16,244 [Rush Lindell] I said I'd give credit where it's due! 397 00:15:17,444 --> 00:15:19,394 [Reagan] You did-barely. 398 00:15:19,794 --> 00:15:20,394 [Rush Lindell] The takeaway, 399 00:15:20,594 --> 00:15:20,744 [Rush Lindell] though: 400 00:15:20,944 --> 00:15:22,144 [Rush Lindell] the choke point spooked, 401 00:15:22,344 --> 00:15:23,094 [Rush Lindell] not closed. 402 00:15:23,444 --> 00:15:25,494 [Rush Lindell] That's the real story under all the noise. 403 00:15:25,994 --> 00:15:27,444 [Reagan] That's exactly right. 404 00:15:27,644 --> 00:15:29,194 [Reagan] Everybody's watching the Strait, 405 00:15:29,294 --> 00:15:31,744 [Reagan] but the deadline that matters is the midterms. 406 00:15:32,044 --> 00:15:32,544 [Rush Lindell] Agreed. 407 00:15:32,694 --> 00:15:33,694 [Rush Lindell] Watch the pump price, 408 00:15:33,894 --> 00:15:34,844 [Rush Lindell] not the press conference. 409 00:15:35,444 --> 00:15:36,544 [Reagan] And on that note, 410 00:15:36,694 --> 00:15:37,844 [Reagan] if you liked this hour, 411 00:15:38,094 --> 00:15:38,394 [Reagan] subscribe, 412 00:15:38,794 --> 00:15:39,794 [Reagan] leave us five stars, 413 00:15:39,994 --> 00:15:41,694 [Reagan] tell somebody who needs to hear it. 414 00:15:42,044 --> 00:15:43,644 [Rush Lindell] New episodes every weekday. 415 00:15:43,744 --> 00:15:44,544 [Rush Lindell] We're not going anywhere. 416 00:15:45,418 --> 00:15:46,968 [Reagan] Neither is this fight, 417 00:15:47,018 --> 00:15:47,468 [Reagan] apparently. 418 00:15:47,868 --> 00:15:48,768 [Rush Lindell] No kidding. 419 00:15:49,318 --> 00:15:49,618 [Reagan] Well, 420 00:15:49,818 --> 00:15:51,368 [Reagan] thanks for spending the hour with us. 421 00:15:51,618 --> 00:15:52,418 [Rush Lindell] We'll see you tomorrow. 422 00:15:52,818 --> 00:15:54,018 [Reagan] Stay sharp out there.