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[Rush Lindell] Georgia is voting right now.

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[Rush Lindell] Tonight, two big GOP runoffs, and the results are going to tell us a lot.

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[Rush Lindell] Welcome to the Rush Lindell Show.

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[Rush Lindell] I'm Rush Lindell.

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[Reagan] And I'm Reagan.

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[Reagan] And Rush,

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[Reagan] this is one of those nights where the returns actually mean something beyond just who wins a primary.

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[Rush Lindell] That's exactly right.

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[Rush Lindell] We've got Burt Jones versus Rick Jackson for governor,

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[Rush Lindell] Trump's guy against a billionaire who spent over $80 million of his own.

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[Rush Lindell] of his own money trying to buy this thing.

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[Reagan] And the Senate side might Collins versus Derek Dooley; Trump versus Kemp,

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[Reagan] basically-in candidate form.

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[Rush Lindell] Proxy war-in June-in Georgia-again.

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[Reagan] I mean"--

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[Rush Lindell] And the person watching all of this very

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[Reagan] Right

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[Rush Lindell] carefully and very happily is Jon Ossoff sitting on thirty one million dollars cash on hand while Republicans hand him free opposition research.

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[Reagan] Look,

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[Reagan] the math on the Senate majority makes Georgia a load-bearing seat for Republicans in November.

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[Reagan] What happens tonight shapes how much runway they have left.

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[Rush Lindell] So we're going to break down both races.

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[Rush Lindell] We're going to talk Trump's endorsement record,

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[Rush Lindell] what it actually means when the scoreboard is live.

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[Rush Lindell] We'll get into the Ossoff situation,

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[Rush Lindell] which I'll be honest,

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[Rush Lindell] is a gift that keeps giving.

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[Reagan] And I want to push back on some of the easy narratives.

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[Reagan] There's a pattern people are reaching for,

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[Reagan] and I think it's worth...

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[Reagan] Worth pressure testing before we just declare Georgia a disaster.

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[Rush Lindell] Oh, she'll make me earn it.

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[Reagan] Every time.

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[Rush Lindell] AJC and NBC News have live precinct results coming in as we talk.

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[Rush Lindell] First up, what's actually on the ballot tonight and why it matters?

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[Rush Lindell] Before we dive in, a quick reminder.

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[Rush Lindell] We love hearing from you.

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[Rush Lindell] If you have questions or topics you'd like us to cover,

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[Rush Lindell] head to the link in the description and submit your question.

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[Rush Lindell] We read every single one.

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[Rush Lindell] So here's what's going on tonight in Georgia-and I mean tonight:

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[Rush Lindell] votes are being counted right now,

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[Rush Lindell] two races,

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[Rush Lindell] two GOP nominations on the line,

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[Rush Lindell] governor and US Senate-both decided by runoff.

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[Reagan] The AJC is tracking live precinct results across every county.

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[Reagan] This is not a preview anymore-it's decision night.

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[Rush Lindell] On the governor's side, you've got Burt Jones,

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[Rush Lindell] the sitting lieutenant governor,

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[Rush Lindell] Trump's guy.

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[Rush Lindell] against Rick Jackson,

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[Rush Lindell] billionaire health care executive who dropped over $80 million of his own money into this race.

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[Reagan] Wow.

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[Rush Lindell] $80 million!

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[Reagan] And NBC News noted Jackson spent that without ever actually getting Trump's endorsement. He ran as a Trump-style outsider.

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[Reagan] The escalator entrance,

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[Reagan] the rags-to-riches biography,

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[Reagan] the whole aesthetic,

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[Reagan] just no stamp.

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[Rush Lindell] The Vibes Without the Receipt

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[Reagan] Exactly.

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[Rush Lindell] And none of this happens if Brian Kemp isn't term limited out.

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[Rush Lindell] He leaves and suddenly there's a power vacuum big enough to park eighty million dollars in.

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[Rush Lindell] Jackson walks right through the door.

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[Reagan] That's the structural story.

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[Reagan] Kemp's absence didn't just open a seat; it scrambled the whole field.

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[Reagan] Brad Raffensperger and Chris Carr ran,

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[Reagan] neither made the runoff.

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[Rush Lindell] Which tells you something about the gravity Jackson brought.

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[Rush Lindell] He didn't win outright.

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[Rush Lindell] Right, but he forced the Trump-endorsed lieutenant governor into overtime.

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[Rush Lindell] That alone is a headline.

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[Reagan] On the Senate side,

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[Reagan] according to CBS News,

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[Reagan] it's Mike Collins against Derek Dooley,

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[Reagan] son of UGA coaching legend Vince Dooley.

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[Reagan] Whoever wins faces Jon Ossoff in November.

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[Rush Lindell] And Trump just endorsed Collins days before today. So you've now got two races where the president put his name on the line.

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[Rush Lindell] Two runoffs,

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[Rush Lindell] one night.

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[Reagan] Which sets up the actual question worth asking:

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[Rush Lindell] Quintin Tio,

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[Rush Lindell] does a Trump endorsement still move voters when $80 million is coming at you from the other direction?

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[Rush Lindell] So Jackson pulls out over a hundred million dollars – CNN is reporting that number now – descends from a glass elevator like a bargain basement Trump,

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[Rush Lindell] runs wall-to-wall MAGA ads,

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[Rush Lindell] and still can't get the man himself to pick up the phone.

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[Rush Lindell] That's the whole play right there.

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[Reagan] The Glass Elevator is actually extraordinary.

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[Reagan] NBC News reported he did it deliberately,

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[Reagan] echoing Trump's escalator moment from 2016.

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[Reagan] He wanted the brand without the stamp.

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[Rush Lindell] I'm calling him Glass Elevator Rick because that's exactly what he is-Trump aesthetics,

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[Rush Lindell] no Trump endorsement-and you know what?

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[Rush Lindell] That distinction may cost him a governor's mansion.

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[Reagan] That said,

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[Reagan] Rush,

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[Reagan] is the "endorsement" the real variable here,

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[Reagan] or is a hundred million dollars in spending just too much for any endorsement to overcome?

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[Rush Lindell] Reagan,

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[Rush Lindell] that is the question tonight.

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[Rush Lindell] Trump endorsed Jones back in August—Jones held on through the primary and here we are in a runoff.

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[Reagan] Right,

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[Reagan] because eighty three million dollars in ads can move numbers even when the man at the top is against you.

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[Reagan] That is genuinely a stress test.

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[Rush Lindell] And now flip to the Senate lane—Trump stayed completely neutral through the whole primary—Collins at forty percent,

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[Rush Lindell] Dooley at thirty percent—then drops an endorsement on Truth Social at midnight.

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[Rush Lindell] Night two days before the runoff—called Dooley a nice person who nobody knows.

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[Reagan] That's not an endorsement of Collins; that's a dismissal of Dooley.

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[Rush Lindell] Same thing,

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[Rush Lindell] different direction—and here's what makes the Senate race sharper:

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[Rush Lindell] Kemp is all in on Dooley; Trump versus Kemp,

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[Rush Lindell] one lane,

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[Rush Lindell] one night.

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[Rush Lindell] That's a factional fight,

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[Rush Lindell] not just a primary.

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[Reagan] Which is why the Senate result may actually tell us more about who runs Georgia

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[Speaker 3] than any other state.

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[Reagan] Runs Georgia Republicans going forward than the governor's race does.

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[Rush Lindell] Paper beats scissors,

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[Rush Lindell] or scissors beats paper.

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[Rush Lindell] We find out tonight.

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[Rush Lindell] And speaking of that Collins-Dooley fight,

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[Rush Lindell] the Senate race has its own complications that go well beyond the endorsement matchup.

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[Rush Lindell] So on the Senate side,

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[Rush Lindell] same night,

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[Rush Lindell] different mess entirely.

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[Reagan] Collins came in first in May with about 40% to Dooley's 30%. But NBC News notes Trump didn't endorse Collins until days before tonight's runoff. That is a long time to leave your own guy hanging.

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[Rush Lindell] Two days out,

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[Rush Lindell] Sunday night,

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[Rush Lindell] classic.

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[Reagan] And the subtext of this whole race,

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[Reagan] Kemp-backed Dooley. So you've got Kemp's machine in one corner.

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[Reagan] A Trump stamp in the other.

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[Reagan] It's not really Collins versus Dooley; it's a Kemp versus Trump proxy fight playing out in the Senate lane.

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[Rush Lindell] Which is a great way to arrive at a general election against a well funded incumbent very

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[Rush Lindell] Very healthy.

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[Reagan] Right,

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[Reagan] and MS NOW reported this morning that a prominent Georgia Republican strategist anonymously said if you went to a laboratory and tried to create the worst general election candidate for this state and environment possible,

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[Reagan] you couldn't do better than Mike Collins.

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[Rush Lindell] From inside the tent?

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[Rush Lindell] That's a Republican saying that about the Republican who just got Trump's endorsement.

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[Reagan] That's the concern in a nutshell.

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[Reagan] Collins is a firmly MAGA brand.

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[Reagan] Trump won Georgia in 2024,

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[Reagan] but midterms are different math entirely,

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[Reagan] which

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[Rush Lindell] And Trump basically said in the endorsement, I don't know Derek Dooley, and neither does anyone.

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[Rush Lindell] He dismissed his own party's governor-backed candidate in one sentence.

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[Reagan] tells you everything about where Kemp stands with this White House right now.

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[Rush Lindell] So Republicans either rally behind a nominee their own strategists are nervous about.

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[Rush Lindell] Or they hand Jon Ossoff a gift.

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[Reagan] And Ossoff has been watching this circus for months, stacking cash the whole time. That's exactly where we go next.

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[Rush Lindell] So while Republicans were busy lighting each other on fire,

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[Rush Lindell] Ossoff was cashing checks.

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[Rush Lindell] Thirty-one million dollars in bank as of March.

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[Reagan] Wow.

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[Rush Lindell] Fourteen million raised in Q1 alone.

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[Rush Lindell] The AJC called it a Georgia fundraising record.

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[Rush Lindell] A record!

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[Reagan] And the GOP's top contenders were at that same point measuring their hauls in the single-digit millions.

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[Rush Lindell] Pocket change.

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[Rush Lindell] He's not just ahead,

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[Rush Lindell] he lapped him.

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[Rush Lindell] And here's what kills me about this.

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[Rush Lindell] Ossoff is the most exposed Democrat on the Senate map,

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[Rush Lindell] only Democrat defending a seat in a state Trump won in 2024.

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[Rush Lindell] That's the guy who should be sweating.

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[Reagan] Look,

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[Rush Lindell] Instead,

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[Rush Lindell] he's got a war chest that dwarfs the entire Republican field.

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[Reagan] the structural vulnerability is real.

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[Reagan] Trump won Georgia.

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[Reagan] Ossoff has to defend that ground.

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[Reagan] But MS. NOW reported it plainly. Republicans lost months fighting each other while Ossoff...

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[Reagan] Ossoff just kept building.

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[Reagan] Every week of that primary,

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[Reagan] every week of this runoff was free time for him.

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[Reagan] Free time and free money because nothing motivates Democratic small-dollar donors like a Republican's circular firing squad.

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[Rush Lindell] He didn't earn this advantage.

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[Rush Lindell] He didn't earn this advantage.

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[Rush Lindell] The GOP handed it to him.

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[Reagan] That's fair,

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[Reagan] and the Senate leadership fund is already committed to $44 million against Ossoff, so the cavalry is coming,

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[Reagan] but you cannot spot someone $31 million and expect

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[Reagan] And expect an easy race.

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[Rush Lindell] 44 million,

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[Rush Lindell] okay,

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[Rush Lindell] and Ossoff's average donation,

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[Rush Lindell] 38 bucks.

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[Rush Lindell] He's got 400,000 people writing him checks.

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[Rush Lindell] That's not just money,

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[Rush Lindell] that's an army.

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[Reagan] Which is why the nominee tonight actually matters.

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[Reagan] You need a candidate who can consolidate,

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[Reagan] not one who gives Ossoff a villain to fundraise against.

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[Rush Lindell] And based on everything we've covered tonight,

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[Rush Lindell] that's not a guarantee.

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[Reagan] Not even close.

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[Rush Lindell] The smarter play,

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[Rush Lindell] pick someone who can actually win a general.

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[Rush Lindell] Georgia Republicans have had some interesting ideas about that.

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[Reagan] You could say that.

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[Reagan] There's a pattern here that goes back a few years.

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[Rush Lindell] Oh, there is absolutely a pattern and it rhymes.

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[Rush Lindell] So speaking of Georgia Republicans and free gifts to Jon Ossoff,

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[Rush Lindell] let me run you through the highlight reel.

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[Rush Lindell] 2021,

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[Rush Lindell] Republicans had two Senate seats to defend.

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[Rush Lindell] Winning either one kept the majority.

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[Rush Lindell] They lost both.

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[Rush Lindell] And part of the reason Trump spent the runoff campaign telling GOP voters the election was rigged. You know what happens when you tell your own people their vote doesn't count?

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[Rush Lindell] They don't vote.

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[Reagan] The Atlanta Journal-Constitution actually reported that Republican turnout dipped and flip the Senate.

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[Reagan] That's not a theory.

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[Rush Lindell] Ten twenty twenty two—Trump hands Warnock a gift wrapped in a Heisman Trophy.

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[Rush Lindell] Herschel Walker—great guy,

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[Rush Lindell] legendary player—loses to Raphael Warnock by nearly three points.

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[Rush Lindell] Wikipedia has the margin at two point eight percent,

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[Rush Lindell] and the Georgia Public Broadcasting data showed roughly one in two.

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[Rush Lindell] One in ten Kemp voters just skipped Walker on the ballot entirely.

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[Reagan] To be fair,

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[Reagan] some of that was candidate specific baggage; you can't put everything on the endorsement.

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[Rush Lindell] Reagan,

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[Rush Lindell] a guy who hadn't held office,

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[Rush Lindell] never run for anything,

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[Rush Lindell] whose personal life became a Senate debate.

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[Rush Lindell] That's not candidate baggage.

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[Rush Lindell] That's a carry on,

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[Rush Lindell] a checked bag and something they found at security.

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[Reagan] Okay,

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[Reagan] fair.

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[Rush Lindell] The pattern is real.

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[Rush Lindell] Football player,

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[Rush Lindell] billionaire,

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[Rush Lindell] fraud claims right before a runoff,

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[Reagan] Mm-hmm.

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[Rush Lindell] Georgia Republicans keep bringing a name to a knife fight,

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[Rush Lindell] and then acting surprised when the knife wins.

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[Reagan] But here's where I push back.

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[Reagan] The pattern doesn't mean Collins or the governor nominee is automatically doomed tonight.

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[Reagan] Patterns break,

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[Reagan] candidates matter.

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[Rush Lindell] Completely agree.

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[Rush Lindell] The question is whether tonight is the first page of a new chapter.

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[Rush Lindell] were just another entry in a very long book.

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[Reagan] And that answer matters a lot more than people realize.

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[Reagan] Republicans hold a 53-47 Senate majority right now,

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[Reagan] defending 22 of 35 seats this cycle.

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[Reagan] Georgia isn't optional.

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[Rush Lindell] It's the only state Trump won in 2024 where a Democratic senator is on the ballot.

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[Rush Lindell] You cannot leave points on the field,

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[Rush Lindell] not here,

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[Rush Lindell] not this year.

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[Rush Lindell] Ha, ha, ha, ha.

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[Rush Lindell] So what does all of this actually mean tonight for the map for November for the majority?

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[Reagan] Let me put the math on the table.

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[Reagan] Republicans hold fifty three forty seven right now.

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[Reagan] They can lose two seats net and still hold fifty one.

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[Reagan] Georgia isn't optional insurance.

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[Reagan] It's a load bearing wall.

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[Rush Lindell] And here's the thing that nobody on the Republican side wanted to say out loud six months ago.

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[Rush Lindell] This was supposed to be their easiest pickup.

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[Reagan] According to Time magazine,

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[Reagan] Georgia is the only state Trump won in twenty twenty four where a Democratic senator is up for reelection.

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[Reagan] One state.

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[Reagan] That's it.

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[Rush Lindell] One-and they spent five months turning it into a demolition derby.

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[Reagan] And now whoever walks out of tonight's runoff is going up against someone sitting on thirty one million dollars cash on hand,

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[Reagan] per AJC reporting from April.

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[Reagan] The Cook Political Report already shifted Georgia to Lean Democrat this spring.

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[Reagan] Spring!

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[Rush Lindell] Cook shifted it to "lean"

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[Rush Lindell] Democrat on a red Trump One State.

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[Rush Lindell] That's not a red flag,

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[Rush Lindell] that's a five alarm fire.

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[Reagan] Look,

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[Reagan] the race is still competitive.

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[Reagan] Ossoff won his seat by one point two points in twenty twenty one,

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[Reagan] and the electorate in a regular November cycle is structurally tougher for him.

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[Reagan] That's real.

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[Reagan] But he's been campaigning full time while Republicans were busy taking shots at each other.

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[Rush Lindell] Every dollar spent in this runoff was a dollar not saved.

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[Rush Lindell] Saved for Ossoff-every attack ad between Collins and Dooley is a clip Ossoff's team is going to run in October.

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[Reagan] If Democrats...

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[Rush Lindell] Lose Georgia?

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[Rush Lindell] U.S. polling data analysis says they'd need to sweep Ohio,

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[Rush Lindell] Pennsylvania,

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[Rush Lindell] Wisconsin,

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[Rush Lindell] and New Hampshire just to hit 50.

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[Rush Lindell] That's the backup plan.

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[Rush Lindell] It's not a plan.

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[Reagan] So tonight isn't just about who wins a runoff.

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[Reagan] Tonight tells us how damaged the winner's walking in.

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[Rush Lindell] And whether the party can consolidate around them fast enough to close a $31 million gap before November.

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[Reagan] That's the report card Republicans should be reading tonight.

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[Reagan] Not the celebration,

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[Reagan] the damage assessment.

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[Reagan] So the verdict is in or nearly there.

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[Reagan] If Trump's picks hold tonight,

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[Reagan] Burt Jones and Mike Collins are your nominees.

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[Reagan] Two-for-two on endorsements,

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[Reagan] that's the scorecard.

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[Rush Lindell] It is, and Jones winning is actually the cleaner story.

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[Rush Lindell] Trump-endorsed incumbent lieutenant governor beats a billionaire.

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[Rush Lindell] That tracks.

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[Reagan] Glass Elevator Rick spent a fortune,

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[Reagan] and if it wasn't enough,

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[Reagan] that's on him.

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[Rush Lindell] Collins, though,

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[Rush Lindell] is where it gets complicated.

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[Rush Lindell] He wins tonight,

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[Rush Lindell] which Trump gets credit for.

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[Rush Lindell] But Republican operatives are already worried,

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[Rush Lindell] openly worried,

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[Rush Lindell] that the race shifts from being about Ossoff's voting record to being about Collins himself.

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[Reagan] They created exactly the candidate their strategists said you couldn't manufacture in a lab,

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[Reagan] and now they have to win with him.

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[Rush Lindell] That's the thing:

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[Rush Lindell] the party base chose him.

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[Rush Lindell] They own that.

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[Reagan] So here's my question,

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[Reagan] and I want an honest answer:

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[Reagan] can Collins consolidate Kemp's wing?

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[Reagan] Being fast enough?

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[Reagan] Ossoff's got a $31 million head start and the donor infrastructure to double it before October.

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[Rush Lindell] That is the only question that matters.

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[Rush Lindell] Kemp supporters don't despise Collins,

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[Rush Lindell] they just didn't choose him.

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[Rush Lindell] That's a workable gap,

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[Rush Lindell] if the nominee moves fast.

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[Reagan] Fast means immediately,

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[Reagan] not after a victory lap.

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[Reagan] Day one.

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[Rush Lindell] Right, and the first post-runoff fundraising number will tell you if that consolidation is happening.

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[Rush Lindell] is happening or not,

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[Rush Lindell] watch that filing.

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[Reagan] That's what I'm watching too.

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[Rush Lindell] Mm-hmm.

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[Reagan] First general election poll.

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[Reagan] First fundraising quarter.

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[Reagan] Those are the actual truth tellers here,

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[Reagan] not the speeches.

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[Rush Lindell] And on the Democratic side,

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[Rush Lindell] Ossoff doesn't need to do anything tonight except not make news.

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[Rush Lindell] He's already positioned.

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[Reagan] Which,

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[Reagan] knowing Georgia Republicans,

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[Reagan] they'll try their best to help him with.

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[Rush Lindell] Look,

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[Rush Lindell] the math is brutally steep,

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[Rush Lindell] but the path exists.

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[Rush Lindell] It just requires the party to behave like adults for five straight months.

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[Reagan] Five whole months I'll believe it when I see it Keep watching tonight

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[Speaker 4] All right,

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[Speaker 4] Georgia runoff night,

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[Speaker 4] two races,

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[Speaker 4] one verdict,

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[Speaker 4] and the verdict is:

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[Speaker 4] Trump's endorsement still costs something to fight.

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[Rush Lindell] What tonight proved is that Ossoff's thirty-one million dollar advantage didn't come from nowhere.

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[Rush Lindell] Republicans handed it to him one bruising primary week at a time.

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[Speaker 4] Glass Elevator Rick spent eighty three million dollars trying to buy the look without the receipt.

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[Speaker 4] Seat will see if that was enough

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[Rush Lindell] And the Senate race,

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[Rush Lindell] Collins versus Dooley,

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[Rush Lindell] that Kemp versus Trump proxy fight finally has a winner.

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[Rush Lindell] Now comes the hard part.

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[Speaker 4] The hard part being, you know, actually beating Ossoff in November

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[Rush Lindell] Right.

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[Rush Lindell] Watch the first post-runoff fundraising filing.

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[Rush Lindell] That's your real November indicator.

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[Speaker 4] Bottom line,

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[Speaker 4] Georgia is winnable,

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[Speaker 4] but only if Republicans stop donating to Ossoff's cause by fighting each other.

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[Rush Lindell] That's the show.

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[Rush Lindell] If this episode made you think,

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[Rush Lindell] subscribe,

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00:17:35,092 --> 00:17:36,242
[Rush Lindell] leave a five-star review,

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[Rush Lindell] and send it to someone who needs to hear it.

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[Speaker 4] New episodes every weekday. We'll be back tomorrow.

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[Speaker 4] Thanks for riding with us.