[Rush Lindell] Welcome back to the Rush Lindell Show.
[Rush Lindell] I'm fired up today,
[Rush Lindell] folks.
[Reagan] And I'm here to keep him honest.
[Reagan] Good to be back, everybody.
[Rush Lindell] Big one today.
[Rush Lindell] Congress just split down the middle on two Iran war powers votes.
[Rush Lindell] And Reagan,
[Rush Lindell] I've got thoughts.
[Reagan] Shocking.
[Rush Lindell] I know,
[Rush Lindell] I know.
[Rush Lindell] But stick around.
[Rush Lindell] We're going to dig into whether either of these votes actually changes anything on the ground.
[Reagan] We're also tracking the money side of this war.
[Reagan] Oil's pushing past a hundred-
[Reagan] 100 barrel gas is creeping toward four bucks, and that's landing right in the middle of midterm season.
[Rush Lindell] Which means some Republicans are getting nervous and crossing lines they don't normally cross.
[Reagan] We'll name names.
[Rush Lindell] Oh,
[Rush Lindell] we will.
[Rush Lindell] But first, this hour is brought to you by Lear Capital,
[Rush Lindell] America's Precious Metals Leader since 1997.
[Reagan] Good partner to have when the ground under this economy keeps shifting.
[Rush Lindell] That's exactly right.
[Rush Lindell] Now,
[Rush Lindell] Reagan before-
[Rush Lindell] And before we referee any of it, I want to start with the floor vote itself,
[Rush Lindell] because I think most people misunderstand what Congress actually did here.
[Reagan] Fair enough,
[Reagan] so walk me through it.
[Rush Lindell] No,
[Rush Lindell] you walk me through it. What actually happened on that floor?
[Rush Lindell] Before we dive in, a quick reminder:
[Rush Lindell] we love hearing from you. If you have questions or topics you'd like us to cover, head to the link in the description and submit your question.
[Rush Lindell] We read every single one.
[Rush Lindell] 49,
[Rush Lindell] 47.
[Rush Lindell] Say it with me.
[Rush Lindell] Forty-nine to Forty-seven.
[Reagan] The Senate Vote on the Van Hollen Resolution
[Rush Lindell] Two votes,
[Rush Lindell] two votes short of forcing Trump to end this thing by law.
[Rush Lindell] Meanwhile the House goes the other direction,
[Rush Lindell] two fourteen to two oh eight,
[Rush Lindell] telling him the same thing with zero teeth.
[Reagan] Roll calls numbers,
[Reagan] and they check out.
[Reagan] Jayapal's concurrent resolution:
[Reagan] passed.
[Reagan] Non-binding.
[Reagan] It's a strongly worded letter with a bill number.
[Rush Lindell] A letter that got a majority.
[Rush Lindell] That's the headline nobody's saying out loud.
[Rush Lindell] Most of Congress on the record wants troops home.
[Reagan] Sure, but...
[Rush Lindell] All right,
[Rush Lindell] roll the tape back three weeks.
[Reagan] To the night you said the cease fire wouldn't survive August?
[Rush Lindell] I said it wouldn't survive the summer; there's a difference.
[Reagan] Three weeks isn't much of a difference,
[Reagan] but go on.
[Rush Lindell] Fine,
[Rush Lindell] I was loose on the calendar,
[Rush Lindell] but I called it dead on arrival,
[Rush Lindell] and it's dead.
[Reagan] Being directionally right isn't the same as being right; you need the how,
[Reagan] not just the doom.
[Rush Lindell] I called doom,
[Rush Lindell] doom showed up.
[Reagan] Doom always shows up eventually-that's weather,
[Reagan] not analysis.
[Rush Lindell] Wow!
[Rush Lindell] Ouch,
[Rush Lindell] Reagan!
[Reagan] According to CNBC's reporting,
[Reagan] Secretary Rubio said Iran wasn't serious about the talks, days before Trump pulled the plug.
[Reagan] That's the piece you missed-the deal never had enforcement teeth.
[Rush Lindell] Hmm.
[Rush Lindell] Fine,
[Rush Lindell] I'll take that one.
[Rush Lindell] I thought Tehran would cheat on inspections.
[Rush Lindell] Turns out there was never a mechanism to cheat on.
[Reagan] You also called for a slow draw-down once the cease fire held.
[Reagan] The casualty trajectory went the entirely other way.
[Rush Lindell] I put a caveat on that one:
[Rush Lindell] "Unless Iran struck first." They struck first,
[Rush Lindell] so technically....
[Reagan] Technically doesn't get you credit for the outcome.
[Rush Lindell] Oh,
[Rush Lindell] fair; I'll eat that,
[Rush Lindell] too; but there's got receipts,
[Rush Lindell] too; I've got the line where I said Tehran would break it within thirty days of any strike pause.
[Reagan] And?"--
[Rush Lindell] They broke it in twenty eight.
[Reagan] Sure; my miss,
[Reagan] since we're keeping score,
[Reagan] I thought House Republicans would hold the line against any war powers vote.
[Rush Lindell] Four of them didn't.
[Rush Lindell] Stripes named Congressman Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania as one of the four who crossed over.
[Reagan] I underestimated how many members are fielding calls from families who watched caskets come home.
[Rush Lindell] So we're even-I get the collapse,
[Rush Lindell] you get the defections.
[Reagan] Grade recorded.
[Reagan] Same panel,
[Reagan] next mess.
[Speaker 3] There will be a next one,
[Speaker 3] and speaking of costs nobody predicted-
[Reagan] Just costs nobody predicted.
[Speaker 3] Oil just cracked two digits.
[Reagan] That's the bet everybody's paying for,
[Reagan] whether they're watching Congress or not.
[Speaker 3] Flip that CTA scorecard into dollars at the pump and this war stops being abstract fast.
[Reagan] ABC News says Brent crude hit about a hundred dollars and sixty cents a barrel this week.
[Speaker 3] A hundred bucks up nearly twenty nine per cent in a single month-the Dow dropped five hundred twenty five points that same day.
[Reagan] That's the market pricing in fear,
[Reagan] not just barrels.
[Speaker 3] And somewhere out there a guy who promised gas under three bucks
[Speaker 4] a gallon will be elected.
[Speaker 3] Three bucks is awfully quiet right now.
[Reagan] AXIOS cited AAA data:
[Reagan] the national average is near or above four dollars a gallon.
[Reagan] This war opened at two dollars ninety eight cents back in late February.
[Speaker 3] A dollar a gallon since February-you feel that filling your tank,
[Speaker 3] not watching cable news.
[Reagan] You do.
[Reagan] But separate two things-there's a war premium and there's structural supply,
[Reagan] not the same animal.
[Speaker 3] Tell that to the guy at the pump,
[Speaker 3] Reagan.
[Speaker 5] I will because it matters.
[Speaker 5] The Houthis claim strikes on two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea and Hormuz is blockaded again.
[Speaker 5] That's real barrels not moving.
[Speaker 3] So it's not just headlines spooking traders?
[Speaker 5] Some fears baked in,
[Speaker 5] sure,
[Speaker 5] but rerouted tankers and war risk insurance stack real cost on real cost.
[Speaker 3] So when some senator promises prices drop like a rock
[Speaker 3] Rock the second we pull out.
[Speaker 5] That's not how oil markets work.
[Speaker 5] You can't unblockade a strait with a press release.
[Speaker 3] Instant Relief from Politicians-Shocking!
[Speaker 5] Every single time.
[Speaker 3] Oil's getting squeezed by a war nobody saw coming.
[Speaker 3] And speaking of squeezed markets,
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[Speaker 5] Okay,
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[Speaker 5] Wait,
[Speaker 5] wait,
[Speaker 5] wait.
[Speaker 5] Below spot?
[Speaker 5] That's not how this usually works.
[Speaker 3] I know,
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[Speaker 5] So what's the catch?
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[Speaker 5] Twenty-four hours; so this isn't a think it over kind of deal.
[Speaker 3] No,
[Speaker 3] it is not; here's why that below spot number matters:
[Speaker 3] spot price doesn't even include the cost to mint the coin,
[Speaker 3] ship it,
[Speaker 3] or any dealer overhead.
[Rush Lindell] So buying at spot is already a good deal.
[Reagan] Buying at spot is a good deal; buying below spot almost never happens.
[Rush Lindell] And this isn't some obscure bullion piece nobody's heard of.
[Reagan] The Silver American Eagle is one of the most recognized coins on the planet,
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[Reagan] government for weight and purity—one ounce of point nine nine nine fine silver.
[Rush Lindell] IRA-eligible too,
[Rush Lindell] if you're thinking long term.
[Reagan] IRA-eligible,
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[Reagan] Go to www.RushCoinOffer.com right now.
[Reagan] I mean right now because it's a 24-hour offer.
[Rush Lindell] The URL goes dark after that.
[Reagan] When it's gone,
[Reagan] it's gone.
[Reagan] www.RushCoinOffer.com
[Rush Lindell] Back to barrels,
[Rush Lindell] because $4 gas is about to explain some very sudden convictions on Capitol Hill.
[Rush Lindell] HILL
[Reagan] Funny how a primary challenge clarifies a senator's feelings on war powers.
[Reagan] I'm calling them the Fantastic Four of Fiscal-wait,
[Reagan] wrong issue-the Foreign Policy Four.
[Rush Lindell] Catchy; but consistency isn't a conspiracy Rush.
[Rush Lindell] Massie's voted this way on every war powers measure since twenty nineteen.
[Reagan] Sure,
[Reagan] but Collins,
[Reagan] she's up for reelection in a state that hasn't gone red in decades and suddenly she finds her constitutional conscience?
[Rush Lindell] Or she's voted for war powers limits before,
[Rush Lindell] too.
[Rush Lindell] You don't get to assume the worst motive just because the timing's convenient for her.
[Reagan] Fine,
[Reagan] fine; but CNN's reporting Trump called the Republicans who backed earlier resolutions losers who made his job harder.
[Rush Lindell] Which tells you everything about how he views dissent:
[Rush Lindell] not as principle,
[Rush Lindell] just inconvenience.
[Reagan] And here's the kicker:
[Reagan] Gregory Meeks is threatening to force another vote.
[Reagan] and drag the Administration into court over ignoring Congress entirely.
[Rush Lindell] That's the real fight,
[Rush Lindell] not who gets a nickname on Truth Social whether the executive branch has to answer to anybody.
[Reagan] I'll give you that one.
[Reagan] Insults are cheap; contempt of Congress is expensive.
[Rush Lindell] And Meeks is betting a judge agrees with him.
[Reagan] We'll see if that bet pays off,
[Reagan] because Trump's Truth Social feed didn't stop at losers.
[Reagan] So Trump's out here running foreign policy like a vending machine now.
[Reagan] One shot at a tanker, one bridge comes down.
[Reagan] That's the actual math he posted.
[Rush Lindell] A power plant for a missile!
[Rush Lindell] Very precise exchange rate for a man who doesn't do decimals.
[Reagan] Right?
[Reagan] And Tehran didn't blink.
[Reagan] They promised to hit regional energy and infrastructure right back.
[Reagan] So now we've got two governments trading real estate over Truth Social.
[Reagan] Sure.
[Rush Lindell] And Euronews reported Trump told Axios he's close to deciding on something he called a "massive attack"
[Rush Lindell] bigger than anything so far.
[Reagan] Bigger than ever before.
[Reagan] I don't know if that's a war plan or a movie trailer.
[Rush Lindell] Coming this fall!
[Reagan] And get this,
[Reagan] he says the tanker damage gets paid for with Iranian money the U.S. already controls,
[Reagan] like he's running an insurance claim out of the Situation Room.
[Rush Lindell] Which is a real policy position,
[Rush Lindell] apparently.
[Reagan] He's also pledging the U.S. will hold Tehran responsible for the Houthi strikes on those Red Sea tankers per CNBC,
[Reagan] so now we own two fronts by post.
[Rush Lindell] Okay,
[Rush Lindell] the bit's funny,
[Rush Lindell] but strip the jokes out:
[Rush Lindell] is any of this actually strategy,
[Rush Lindell] or is it just vibes with a countdown clock?
[Reagan] That's the uncomfortable part:
[Reagan] nobody's laughing if the Bridge Post turns into the Act.
[Reagan] The actual order.
[Rush Lindell] Which brings up the question nobody in Washington wants to answer out loud.
[Reagan] Which is who's actually allowed to give that order in the first place.
[Rush Lindell] Because posting a Doctrine isn't the same as having the authority to run it.
[Reagan] With that vote map settled,
[Reagan] let's talk about what these resolutions actually do-nothing,
[Reagan] legally.
[Reagan] Come on!
[Rush Lindell] No,
[Rush Lindell] listen,
[Rush Lindell] the House resolution is Concurrent; Concurrent resolutions don't go to the President,
[Rush Lindell] they don't carry force of law; it's Congress writing itself a strongly worded letter.
[Reagan] And the Senate one?
[Rush Lindell] Joint resolution,
[Rush Lindell] binding if it passed,
[Rush Lindell] but even if it clears both chambers,
[Rush Lindell] Trump vetoes it,
[Rush Lindell] and overriding takes two thirds.
[Rush Lindell] That threshold isn't close.
[Reagan] So Congress littered on a message,
[Reagan] not a power.
[Rush Lindell] Exactly the distinction.
[Rush Lindell] And here's what bugs me; both parties like it this way.
[Rush Lindell] Nobody's touched the actual lever which is appropriations.
[Rush Lindell] Cut the funding,
[Rush Lindell] the war stops.
[Rush Lindell] Nobody's filing that bill.
[Reagan] Because that's the one vote that actually cost you something back home.
[Rush Lindell] Mm-hmm.
[Rush Lindell] Right.
[Rush Lindell] Roll call's coverage of the Senate vote noted Senator Van Hollen.
[Rush Lindell] Macallan framed this as Congress finally taking responsibility.
[Reagan] Responsibility?
[Reagan] Responsibility looks like a signature on a funding bill,
[Reagan] not a press release.
[Rush Lindell] I'd push back slightly:
[Rush Lindell] symbolic votes do build a record,
[Rush Lindell] but if responsibility doesn't include the money,
[Rush Lindell] it's a word,
[Rush Lindell] not a policy.
[Reagan] A fig leaf with a hundred ninety co sponsors!
[Rush Lindell] That's one way to put it.
[Reagan] So if the institution won't use its own power
[Rush Lindell] Then the check moves somewhere else, and there's only one place left that actually votes on this in November.
[Reagan] Forget the vote count. The real test is whether Trump's own voters stick around.
[Rush Lindell] NewsNation citing Politico poll,
[Rush Lindell] only 37% of Trump supporters still back the war if it raises prices.
[Reagan] 37?
[Reagan] That was 50 back in May.
[Rush Lindell] 50 in May,
[Rush Lindell] 37 now,
[Rush Lindell] 13 points gone in two months.
[Reagan] That's not a crack. That's a fault line.
[Rush Lindell] And the Hill's reporting GOP...
[Rush Lindell] GOP senators are now openly questioning whether Hegseth can actually manage this war!
[Reagan] When your own party's asking if the secretary knows what he's doing,
[Reagan] that's a problem bigger than messaging.
[Rush Lindell] So,
[Rush Lindell] here's what I'm watching:
[Rush Lindell] Does the next war powers vote pick up more than four House Republicans?
[Reagan] I've got my eye on the Bab el-Mandeb—if that strait closes—gas prices stop being a talking point.
[Rush Lindell] And I want the actual pump price on November first,
[Rush Lindell] not a poll about it.
[Reagan] Same.
[Reagan] Numbers don't wobble; polls do.
[Rush Lindell] Grade us on that next time.
[Reagan] Well,
[Reagan] the big lesson tonight—grading our own predictions is brutal, huh?
[Rush Lindell] Being directionally right isn't the same as being right.
[Rush Lindell] I own that on the defections count.
[Reagan] And I own the ceasefire call.
[Reagan] Wrong mechanism,
[Reagan] not just wrong timing.
[Rush Lindell] That's the takeaway,
[Rush Lindell] really.
[Rush Lindell] This war keeps punishing certainty.
[Rush Lindell] Both sides of the aisle.
[Reagan] Which is why we keep score out loud instead of pretending we nailed it.
[Rush Lindell] Exactly the point of doing this show.
[Reagan] Alright,
[Reagan] if you like tonight,
[Reagan] subscribe,
[Reagan] leave us five stars,
[Reagan] and drag a friend into the fight with you.
[Rush Lindell] New episodes every weekday.
[Rush Lindell] We'll be tracking those approval numbers and Hegseth doubts closely.
[Reagan] And,
[Reagan] Reagan,
[Reagan] next time no mercy on my predictions.
[Rush Lindell] None promised.
[Reagan] Fair enough.
[Reagan] Thanks for spending the hour with us.
[Rush Lindell] See you tomorrow.