[Rush Lindell] Welcome back to The Rush Lindell Show.
[Rush Lindell] I'm fired up today.
[Reagan] And I'm here to keep him honest, as always.
[Rush Lindell] We've got a fresh Reuters and Ipsos number on the President, and
[Rush Lindell] it is rough.
[Reagan] 33%.
[Reagan] But wait till you hear what's happening underneath that headline.
[Rush Lindell] Careful, you're giving away the show.
[Reagan] Never the ending, Rush, just the question.
[Rush Lindell] Fair enough.
[Rush Lindell] Because right behind that poll is gas at the pump, diesel at
[Rush Lindell] the docks, the whole kitchen table budget.
[Reagan] And whether voters are blaming the war or the man in the
[Reagan] Oval Office.
[Rush Lindell] Then we're onto the Fed.
[Rush Lindell] Warsh, a split July decision, and a bond market that isn't exactly
[Rush Lindell] buying his pitch.
[Reagan] Plus whether September turns into a rate hike nobody in that room
[Reagan] wanted.
[Rush Lindell] And three dates on the calendar that might decide the midterms before
[Rush Lindell] a single vote is cast.
[Reagan] Should be a fun few weeks around here.
[Rush Lindell] But first, this hour is brought to you by Lear Capital, America's
[Rush Lindell] precious metals leader since 1997.
[Reagan] Good people to know when the headlines look like this one.
[Rush Lindell] All right, let's start with the number everyone's talking about.
[Reagan] 33%.
[Reagan] Let's see what's actually sitting underneath it.
[Rush Lindell] Before we dive in, a quick reminder, we love hearing from you.
[Rush Lindell] If you have questions or topics you'd like us to cover, head
[Rush Lindell] to the link in the description and submit your question.
[Rush Lindell] We read every single one.
[Rush Lindell] 33.
[Reagan] Percent?
[Rush Lindell] Approval.
[Rush Lindell] Reuters/Ipsos, 64 disapprove.
[Reagan] Wow.
[Rush Lindell] 1166 adults, August 14th through 17th.
[Reagan] That ties the low earlier this term.
[Rush Lindell] Ties the floor.
[Rush Lindell] And here's what nobody in that party wants printed above the fold.
[Rush Lindell] This isn't a scandal collapse.
[Rush Lindell] This is a grocery store collapse.
[Reagan] One survey doesn't decide an election.
[Rush Lindell] One survey?
[Rush Lindell] Forbes ran this yesterday.
[Rush Lindell] 80% of the country thinks the Iran fight drags on, not weeks,
[Rush Lindell] longer.
[Reagan] And 71% of Republicans agree with that, which should worry the White
[Reagan] House more than the top line does.
[Rush Lindell] Because their own voters stopped buying the quick win story.
[Reagan] Right.
[Rush Lindell] Mm-hmm.
[Reagan] But before we bury the midterms, give me the cross tab, not
[Reagan] the headline.
[Rush Lindell] Go ahead.
[Reagan] For the first time in roughly a decade, more voters trust Democrats
[Reagan] than Republicans on the economy, 38 to 35.
[Rush Lindell] Say that again.
[Reagan] 38, 35.
[Rush Lindell] That's the number, not the Thirty-three.
[Rush Lindell] That's the one that moves seats.
[Reagan] And it's not sitting alone out there.
[Reagan] YouGov and The Economist had him at Thirty-three in early August.
[Reagan] Quinnipiac landed at Thirty-two in late July.
[Rush Lindell] Three outfits, three weeks, same block of numbers.
[Reagan] Which tells you it's a pattern, but it's also weeks-old data on
[Reagan] a war that could shift by Tuesday.
[Rush Lindell] Fine.
[Rush Lindell] But weeks of watching the pump climb every time you fill up-
[Reagan] Right
[Rush Lindell] ...
[Rush Lindell] people remember that.
[Reagan] So does the price outlast the poll?
[Rush Lindell] It outlasts the poll, the pundits, and whatever spin comes out of
[Rush Lindell] the next press briefing.
[Rush Lindell] Wait till you see what that Thirty-eight to Thirty-five actually costs a
[Rush Lindell] family at the gas station.
[Rush Lindell] Three-ninety-two a gallon in July.
[Rush Lindell] Four-oh-six this week.
[Rush Lindell] My corner station, Cincinnati.
[Reagan] That's not a chart in Washington.
[Reagan] That's a receipt in your hand.
[Rush Lindell] Exactly.
[Rush Lindell] Under three bucks before the February strikes.
[Rush Lindell] Now past four.
[Rush Lindell] That's about a 30% jump, and it's showing up in every cart
[Rush Lindell] every week.
[Reagan] The Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy actually ran the household math
[Reagan] on this.
[Rush Lindell] Ooh.
[Reagan] Average families paid around $527 more in fuel costs since the war
[Reagan] started.
[Rush Lindell] 527.
[Rush Lindell] That's real money.
[Reagan] And their estimate has that climbing towards 650 by Labor Day if
[Reagan] the fighting keeps going.
[Rush Lindell] 650.
[Rush Lindell] That's a car payment sitting in a tank.
[Reagan] Meanwhile, paychecks aren't catching up.
[Reagan] The Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers, out with the CPI report, show
[Reagan] real average hourly earnings actually fell two tenths of a percent July
[Reagan] to July.
[Rush Lindell] So the wage is standing still, and the pump is sprinting.
[Reagan] That's the mismatch, yes.
[Rush Lindell] And it's not just the SUV in your driveway.
[Rush Lindell] Diesel's above five bucks now.
[Reagan] Right.
[Rush Lindell] And diesel is what moves the truck, the freight, the shelf.
[Rush Lindell] A tanker getting harassed near the Strait of Hormuz shows up three
[Rush Lindell] weeks later on a grocery receipt in Ohio.
[Reagan] That part's a supply shock, though.
[Reagan] The war did that.
[Reagan] It's a different animal than a policy choice in Washington.
[Rush Lindell] Tell that to the guy at the pump doing the math on
[Rush Lindell] whether he can still take his kid to the movies this weekend.
[Rush Lindell] He's not sorting causes.
[Rush Lindell] He's just watching the number climb.
[Reagan] I'm not arguing it doesn't hurt.
[Reagan] I'm saying who wears the blame in November depends on whether voters
[Reagan] read this as a war problem or a White House problem.
[Rush Lindell] And that argument is gonna run right through election day.
[Rush Lindell] But you know what actually holds its value while gas prices bounce
[Rush Lindell] around?
[Rush Lindell] Something you can put in your hand instead of your tank, which
[Rush Lindell] is why I want to tell you about this.
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[Rush Lindell] That's right, below what silver is actually trading for right now, and
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[Reagan] Here's what you need to know.
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[Rush Lindell] And just so you understand how rare this is, spot price doesn't
[Rush Lindell] include the cost to mint the coin, ship it, or any dealer
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[Rush Lindell] Buying at spot is already a deal.
[Rush Lindell] Buying below spot almost never happens.
[Reagan] This isn't some obscure bullion piece.
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[Rush Lindell] Go to rushcoinoffer.com right now.
[Rush Lindell] This is a 24-hour offer.
[Rush Lindell] The URL goes dark after that, and when it's gone, it's gone.
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[Reagan] So diesel wages $500 out of every family's pocket.
[Reagan] All of that funnels into one place.
[Rush Lindell] The inflation number.
[Reagan] Which is exactly what the Fed is staring at every time Kevin
[Reagan] Warsh sits down at that table.
[Rush Lindell] Reagan, translate a basis point for me.
[Rush Lindell] What's nine of them actually cost somebody?
[Reagan] On a normal mortgage, barely a coffee.
[Reagan] The bond market moved because it didn't believe Kevin Warsh.
[Rush Lindell] Walk me through that.
[Rush Lindell] The Fed held at 350 to 375, 9 to 3 vote, and
[Rush Lindell] Warsh said flat out he wouldn't hesitate to stop inflation.
[Reagan] CNBC reported that same afternoon, the 30-year yield jumped past nine basis
[Reagan] points, and the 10-year climbed to 4.657%.
[Rush Lindell] So the market heard, "Trust me," and answered, "No"?
[Reagan] Pretty much.
[Reagan] Three members wanted a hike immediately.
[Reagan] Traders read that as a committee arguing with itself over an oil
[Reagan] shock inflation, the hardest kind of fight, because higher rates don't refine
[Reagan] crude.
[Rush Lindell] You can't tighten your way out of the Strait of Hormuz.
[Reagan] That's the bind.
[Reagan] Chase's market note now has a quarter-point September hike as the new
[Reagan] base case, pointing at slow shipping normalization there and the credibility question
[Reagan] Warsh raised on himself.
[Rush Lindell] Put that one in car loan terms.
[Reagan] A few extra dollars a month on new auto and card debt,
[Reagan] more on adjustable mortgages.
[Reagan] Small on paper, loud six weeks before an election.
[Rush Lindell] And these odds swing like a pendulum with a grunge.
[Reagan] CNBC had futures above 80% for a hike right after that July
[Reagan] meeting.
[Reagan] Then the July CPI print showed prices up 3.4% annually, and odds
[Reagan] dropped to roughly 42.
[Rush Lindell] 80 to 42?
[Reagan] That's not settled.
[Speaker 3] Wow.
[Reagan] That's live.
[Rush Lindell] September 15th and 16th then.
[Reagan] Same week House Republicans start sweating every point hike like it's on
[Reagan] their own ballot.
[Rush Lindell] Forget the polling a second.
[Rush Lindell] Let's run the House math nobody at the RNC wants to touch.
[Reagan] Go ahead.
[Rush Lindell] History says the party holding the House eats every cent of gas
[Rush Lindell] pain, no matter whose cause.
[Rush Lindell] Voters don't grade on a curve.
[Reagan] They rarely do.
[Rush Lindell] Now stack a rate hike on top.
[Rush Lindell] Six weeks before election day, mortgage payments and credit card rates land
[Rush Lindell] on the ballot right next to the war and the pump.
[Reagan] Slow down.
[Reagan] Is this really about gas or about a war voters were told
[Reagan] would wrap up in weeks?
[Rush Lindell] So it's not the receipts?
[Reagan] 80% of the country, per that Reuters/Ipsos number from the top, thinks
[Reagan] this drags on.
[Reagan] That's patience running out, not just prices.
[Rush Lindell] Fine, both, but the calendar doesn't care about nuance.
[Rush Lindell] August CPI lands September 11th.
[Reagan] Mm-hmm.
[Reagan] Five days before the Fed even meets.
[Rush Lindell] FOMC decides September 15th and 16th, two headlines back to back inside
[Rush Lindell] the last stretch before voters lock in.
[Reagan] Hot print off oil, Warsh has covered a hike.
[Reagan] Soft print...
[Rush Lindell] He's got covered a hold, and every House Republican in a swing
[Rush Lindell] district is praying for soft.
[Reagan] Praying's not a plan.
[Rush Lindell] No, it's three dates and a lot of hoping.
[Rush Lindell] Speaking of hoping, wait till you hear what the White House is
[Rush Lindell] calling this energy picture.
[Reagan] Oh, I can't wait.
[Rush Lindell] Let's play a game.
[Rush Lindell] I'm reading the actual line from the podium back in February.
[Reagan] Oh, no.
[Rush Lindell] Once we degrade Iran's ability to hit tankers, prices plummet back to
[Rush Lindell] pre-conflict levels.
[Reagan] And?
[Rush Lindell] Six months later, still over $4 a gallon.
[Rush Lindell] I'm calling this one the plummet that never came.
[Reagan] Catchy.
[Rush Lindell] Newsweek talked to Denton Cinquegrana, OPIS's chief oil analyst.
[Rush Lindell] He says 2.98 gas is gone for the rest of 2026 and
[Rush Lindell] might not come back until the second half of 2027.
[Reagan] So the plummet got rescheduled for next year.
[Rush Lindell] A mirage with a podium and a flag behind it.
[Reagan] Funny thing is, this exact script ran in reverse in 2022.
[Reagan] Conservatives spent that whole summer saying Biden owned the price at the
[Reagan] pump, war or no war.
[Rush Lindell] That's different.
[Rush Lindell] That was Biden's policy failures.
[Reagan] Was it?
[Reagan] Or was it also a war shock nobody in the room controlled?
[Reagan] Neither party ever wants to say the actual word out loud.
[Rush Lindell] Which word?
[Reagan] Hormuz.
[Reagan] The Strait's still the choke point, whoever is holding the podium.
[Rush Lindell] Fair.
[Rush Lindell] Blame the Strait of Hormuz doesn't fit on a yard sign.
[Reagan] Doesn't poll well either.
[Rush Lindell] The parody is barely exaggerated at this point.
[Rush Lindell] That's what gets me.
[Reagan] So let's turn it on us for a second.
[Reagan] Is any of this actually inflation or a supply shock we're mislabeling
[Reagan] as one?
[Reagan] Comment aside, look at what actually landed.
[Reagan] CNBC's July CPI 0.1% monthly, 3.4% annual, core at 2.5.
[Rush Lindell] That's still the wrong direction.
[Reagan] Sure, but EY's breakdown showed grocery prices actually ticked down, the first
[Reagan] dip since March, even while restaurant prices offset it.
[Rush Lindell] So the checkout line cooled while the pump kept burning.
[Reagan] That's the split.
[Reagan] A wartime supply shock and a spending-driven inflation aren't the same animal,
[Reagan] and conservatives shouldn't pretend otherwise just because-
[Speaker 3] Mm-hmm
[Reagan] ...
[Reagan] the polling's convenient.
[Rush Lindell] Fine.
[Rush Lindell] I'll give you that much.
[Reagan] But here's where the administration owns it: duration.
[Reagan] A blockade strategy with no end date is a price policy, whether
[Reagan] anyone in the West Wing calls it that or not.
[Rush Lindell] Say that part again.
[Reagan] You control how long the shock lasts, you're setting the price.
[Reagan] That's a choice, not an accident.
[Rush Lindell] That's the one version of this I can't wave off.
[Reagan] Right.
[Reagan] The war explains July.
[Reagan] It doesn't explain September.
[Rush Lindell] And every month it drags, this stops being about Tehran and starts
[Rush Lindell] being about the West Wing.
[Rush Lindell] Three dates decide the fall.
[Rush Lindell] Write them down.
[Reagan] Go ahead.
[Rush Lindell] September 11th, CPI.
[Rush Lindell] September 15th and 16th, the Fed.
[Rush Lindell] And check the AAA average every single day in between.
[Reagan] Because if crude's still sitting near 100 bucks a barrel when Warsh's
[Reagan] committee meets?
[Rush Lindell] And they hike anyway, this quits being a polling problem.
[Rush Lindell] It's an economic one.
[Reagan] And even if the Fed holds, oil doesn't answer to a vote.
[Rush Lindell] No.
[Rush Lindell] It answers to a war with no end date on the calendar.
[Rush Lindell] That approval number stops being a floor.
[Reagan] I'll take that bet with you, but if I'm wrong about the
[Reagan] war explaining this, I want the mail on it.
[Rush Lindell] The Plummet tour rolls on, folks.
[Rush Lindell] Gas relief, always 90 days out.
[Reagan] And if that promise is still broken on September 11th, that's a
[Reagan] number with a date stamped on it.
[Rush Lindell] A due date.
[Rush Lindell] Three of them, actually.
[Reagan] I mean that.
[Reagan] If you think the war caused this and he's just caught in
[Reagan] it-
[Rush Lindell] Right.
[Reagan] ...
[Reagan] say so.
[Reagan] Genuinely want to hear it.
[Rush Lindell] She actually means that.
[Reagan] I do.
[Rush Lindell] So that's the Show.
[Rush Lindell] A record low approval number, three separate polls agreeing-
[Reagan] BGHOST1mhm
[Rush Lindell] ...
[Rush Lindell] and a gas gauge still climbing.
[Reagan] And the real headline underneath it, voters trusting Democrats over money for
[Reagan] the first time in years.
[Rush Lindell] It's the wallet talking, plain and simple.
[Reagan] I'd say it's both, honestly.
[Reagan] But Fair point.
[Rush Lindell] Progress.
[Rush Lindell] Mark your calendars.
[Rush Lindell] September 11th, CPI report, then the Fed meets mid-month.
[Reagan] And check the AAA average yourself.
[Reagan] Don't take our word for it.
[Rush Lindell] Wow, Reagan, encouraging listeners to think for themselves on my Show.
[Reagan] Somebody has to.
[Rush Lindell] If you liked this one, subscribe, leave five stars, send it to
[Rush Lindell] a friend still arguing about gas prices at dinner.
[Reagan] New episodes drop every weekday.
[Rush Lindell] I'm Rush Lindell.
[Reagan] I'm Reagan.
[Rush Lindell] We'll catch you next time.