1 00:00:15,480 --> 00:00:17,600 [Rush Lindell] Welcome back to The Rush Lindell Show. 2 00:00:17,879 --> 00:00:19,440 [Rush Lindell] I'm fired up today. 3 00:00:19,539 --> 00:00:22,519 [Reagan] And I'm here to keep him honest, as always. 4 00:00:22,539 --> 00:00:25,769 [Rush Lindell] We've got a fresh Reuters and Ipsos number on the President, and 5 00:00:25,839 --> 00:00:26,800 [Rush Lindell] it is rough. 6 00:00:27,600 --> 00:00:28,859 [Reagan] 33%. 7 00:00:29,219 --> 00:00:32,659 [Reagan] But wait till you hear what's happening underneath that headline. 8 00:00:33,219 --> 00:00:34,689 [Rush Lindell] Careful, you're giving away the show. 9 00:00:35,359 --> 00:00:37,750 [Reagan] Never the ending, Rush, just the question. 10 00:00:38,340 --> 00:00:38,840 [Rush Lindell] Fair enough. 11 00:00:39,119 --> 00:00:42,210 [Rush Lindell] Because right behind that poll is gas at the pump, diesel at 12 00:00:42,240 --> 00:00:44,280 [Rush Lindell] the docks, the whole kitchen table budget. 13 00:00:44,920 --> 00:00:47,780 [Reagan] And whether voters are blaming the war or the man in the 14 00:00:47,840 --> 00:00:48,560 [Reagan] Oval Office. 15 00:00:49,200 --> 00:00:50,259 [Rush Lindell] Then we're onto the Fed. 16 00:00:50,579 --> 00:00:54,500 [Rush Lindell] Warsh, a split July decision, and a bond market that isn't exactly 17 00:00:54,520 --> 00:00:55,320 [Rush Lindell] buying his pitch. 18 00:00:55,960 --> 00:00:59,679 [Reagan] Plus whether September turns into a rate hike nobody in that room 19 00:00:59,740 --> 00:01:00,659 [Reagan] wanted. 20 00:01:00,740 --> 00:01:03,869 [Rush Lindell] And three dates on the calendar that might decide the midterms before 21 00:01:03,869 --> 00:01:05,260 [Rush Lindell] a single vote is cast. 22 00:01:05,939 --> 00:01:08,359 [Reagan] Should be a fun few weeks around here. 23 00:01:08,379 --> 00:01:12,189 [Rush Lindell] But first, this hour is brought to you by Lear Capital, America's 24 00:01:12,200 --> 00:01:14,680 [Rush Lindell] precious metals leader since 1997. 25 00:01:15,280 --> 00:01:17,900 [Reagan] Good people to know when the headlines look like this one. 26 00:01:18,620 --> 00:01:21,480 [Rush Lindell] All right, let's start with the number everyone's talking about. 27 00:01:22,180 --> 00:01:23,500 [Reagan] 33%. 28 00:01:23,939 --> 00:01:26,239 [Reagan] Let's see what's actually sitting underneath it. 29 00:01:31,980 --> 00:01:35,560 [Rush Lindell] Before we dive in, a quick reminder, we love hearing from you. 30 00:01:35,959 --> 00:01:38,950 [Rush Lindell] If you have questions or topics you'd like us to cover, head 31 00:01:38,980 --> 00:01:41,750 [Rush Lindell] to the link in the description and submit your question. 32 00:01:41,760 --> 00:01:43,739 [Rush Lindell] We read every single one. 33 00:01:49,299 --> 00:01:49,760 [Rush Lindell] 33. 34 00:01:50,000 --> 00:01:50,379 [Reagan] Percent? 35 00:01:50,799 --> 00:01:51,280 [Rush Lindell] Approval. 36 00:01:51,500 --> 00:01:53,859 [Rush Lindell] Reuters/Ipsos, 64 disapprove. 37 00:01:53,980 --> 00:01:54,019 [Reagan] Wow. 38 00:01:54,079 --> 00:01:57,260 [Rush Lindell] 1166 adults, August 14th through 17th. 39 00:01:57,579 --> 00:01:59,379 [Reagan] That ties the low earlier this term. 40 00:01:59,739 --> 00:02:00,659 [Rush Lindell] Ties the floor. 41 00:02:01,000 --> 00:02:03,819 [Rush Lindell] And here's what nobody in that party wants printed above the fold. 42 00:02:04,000 --> 00:02:05,719 [Rush Lindell] This isn't a scandal collapse. 43 00:02:05,780 --> 00:02:07,540 [Rush Lindell] This is a grocery store collapse. 44 00:02:08,038 --> 00:02:10,219 [Reagan] One survey doesn't decide an election. 45 00:02:10,340 --> 00:02:11,389 [Rush Lindell] One survey? 46 00:02:11,419 --> 00:02:12,650 [Rush Lindell] Forbes ran this yesterday. 47 00:02:12,960 --> 00:02:16,659 [Rush Lindell] 80% of the country thinks the Iran fight drags on, not weeks, 48 00:02:16,900 --> 00:02:17,300 [Rush Lindell] longer. 49 00:02:17,639 --> 00:02:21,120 [Reagan] And 71% of Republicans agree with that, which should worry the White 50 00:02:21,159 --> 00:02:22,579 [Reagan] House more than the top line does. 51 00:02:22,900 --> 00:02:26,030 [Rush Lindell] Because their own voters stopped buying the quick win story. 52 00:02:26,419 --> 00:02:26,599 [Reagan] Right. 53 00:02:26,639 --> 00:02:26,710 [Rush Lindell] Mm-hmm. 54 00:02:26,800 --> 00:02:29,590 [Reagan] But before we bury the midterms, give me the cross tab, not 55 00:02:29,620 --> 00:02:30,460 [Reagan] the headline. 56 00:02:30,500 --> 00:02:30,909 [Rush Lindell] Go ahead. 57 00:02:31,180 --> 00:02:34,919 [Reagan] For the first time in roughly a decade, more voters trust Democrats 58 00:02:34,939 --> 00:02:37,949 [Reagan] than Republicans on the economy, 38 to 35. 59 00:02:38,379 --> 00:02:39,219 [Rush Lindell] Say that again. 60 00:02:39,379 --> 00:02:40,599 [Reagan] 38, 35. 61 00:02:40,960 --> 00:02:43,000 [Rush Lindell] That's the number, not the Thirty-three. 62 00:02:43,080 --> 00:02:44,379 [Rush Lindell] That's the one that moves seats. 63 00:02:44,680 --> 00:02:46,199 [Reagan] And it's not sitting alone out there. 64 00:02:46,400 --> 00:02:49,500 [Reagan] YouGov and The Economist had him at Thirty-three in early August. 65 00:02:49,620 --> 00:02:52,280 [Reagan] Quinnipiac landed at Thirty-two in late July. 66 00:02:52,560 --> 00:02:55,860 [Rush Lindell] Three outfits, three weeks, same block of numbers. 67 00:02:55,879 --> 00:02:58,969 [Reagan] Which tells you it's a pattern, but it's also weeks-old data on 68 00:02:59,020 --> 00:03:00,530 [Reagan] a war that could shift by Tuesday. 69 00:03:00,979 --> 00:03:01,479 [Rush Lindell] Fine. 70 00:03:01,500 --> 00:03:04,139 [Rush Lindell] But weeks of watching the pump climb every time you fill up- 71 00:03:04,319 --> 00:03:04,370 [Reagan] Right 72 00:03:04,379 --> 00:03:04,379 [Rush Lindell] ... 73 00:03:04,400 --> 00:03:05,300 [Rush Lindell] people remember that. 74 00:03:05,699 --> 00:03:07,489 [Reagan] So does the price outlast the poll? 75 00:03:07,840 --> 00:03:11,300 [Rush Lindell] It outlasts the poll, the pundits, and whatever spin comes out of 76 00:03:11,340 --> 00:03:12,659 [Rush Lindell] the next press briefing. 77 00:03:12,699 --> 00:03:16,080 [Rush Lindell] Wait till you see what that Thirty-eight to Thirty-five actually costs a 78 00:03:16,120 --> 00:03:17,329 [Rush Lindell] family at the gas station. 79 00:03:23,060 --> 00:03:25,560 [Rush Lindell] Three-ninety-two a gallon in July. 80 00:03:26,139 --> 00:03:27,879 [Rush Lindell] Four-oh-six this week. 81 00:03:28,180 --> 00:03:30,000 [Rush Lindell] My corner station, Cincinnati. 82 00:03:30,419 --> 00:03:32,060 [Reagan] That's not a chart in Washington. 83 00:03:32,219 --> 00:03:33,599 [Reagan] That's a receipt in your hand. 84 00:03:33,979 --> 00:03:34,860 [Rush Lindell] Exactly. 85 00:03:34,939 --> 00:03:37,580 [Rush Lindell] Under three bucks before the February strikes. 86 00:03:37,639 --> 00:03:39,159 [Rush Lindell] Now past four. 87 00:03:39,199 --> 00:03:42,759 [Rush Lindell] That's about a 30% jump, and it's showing up in every cart 88 00:03:42,840 --> 00:03:43,520 [Rush Lindell] every week. 89 00:03:43,979 --> 00:03:48,439 [Reagan] The Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy actually ran the household math 90 00:03:48,500 --> 00:03:49,300 [Reagan] on this. 91 00:03:49,329 --> 00:03:49,329 [Rush Lindell] Ooh. 92 00:03:49,460 --> 00:03:54,860 [Reagan] Average families paid around $527 more in fuel costs since the war 93 00:03:54,960 --> 00:03:55,389 [Reagan] started. 94 00:03:56,240 --> 00:03:57,090 [Rush Lindell] 527. 95 00:03:57,500 --> 00:03:58,659 [Rush Lindell] That's real money. 96 00:03:58,740 --> 00:04:03,210 [Reagan] And their estimate has that climbing towards 650 by Labor Day if 97 00:04:03,219 --> 00:04:04,199 [Reagan] the fighting keeps going. 98 00:04:04,960 --> 00:04:05,719 [Rush Lindell] 650. 99 00:04:05,759 --> 00:04:07,639 [Rush Lindell] That's a car payment sitting in a tank. 100 00:04:08,080 --> 00:04:09,829 [Reagan] Meanwhile, paychecks aren't catching up. 101 00:04:10,080 --> 00:04:13,979 [Reagan] The Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers, out with the CPI report, show 102 00:04:14,099 --> 00:04:18,720 [Reagan] real average hourly earnings actually fell two tenths of a percent July 103 00:04:18,779 --> 00:04:19,279 [Reagan] to July. 104 00:04:19,699 --> 00:04:22,839 [Rush Lindell] So the wage is standing still, and the pump is sprinting. 105 00:04:22,879 --> 00:04:24,339 [Reagan] That's the mismatch, yes. 106 00:04:24,819 --> 00:04:26,968 [Rush Lindell] And it's not just the SUV in your driveway. 107 00:04:27,259 --> 00:04:28,968 [Rush Lindell] Diesel's above five bucks now. 108 00:04:29,000 --> 00:04:29,079 [Reagan] Right. 109 00:04:29,120 --> 00:04:32,579 [Rush Lindell] And diesel is what moves the truck, the freight, the shelf. 110 00:04:32,620 --> 00:04:36,240 [Rush Lindell] A tanker getting harassed near the Strait of Hormuz shows up three 111 00:04:36,339 --> 00:04:38,939 [Rush Lindell] weeks later on a grocery receipt in Ohio. 112 00:04:39,339 --> 00:04:40,980 [Reagan] That part's a supply shock, though. 113 00:04:41,019 --> 00:04:41,899 [Reagan] The war did that. 114 00:04:41,939 --> 00:04:44,839 [Reagan] It's a different animal than a policy choice in Washington. 115 00:04:45,269 --> 00:04:47,689 [Rush Lindell] Tell that to the guy at the pump doing the math on 116 00:04:47,720 --> 00:04:50,800 [Rush Lindell] whether he can still take his kid to the movies this weekend. 117 00:04:50,879 --> 00:04:52,399 [Rush Lindell] He's not sorting causes. 118 00:04:52,459 --> 00:04:54,860 [Rush Lindell] He's just watching the number climb. 119 00:04:54,939 --> 00:04:56,639 [Reagan] I'm not arguing it doesn't hurt. 120 00:04:56,720 --> 00:04:59,980 [Reagan] I'm saying who wears the blame in November depends on whether voters 121 00:05:00,000 --> 00:05:02,899 [Reagan] read this as a war problem or a White House problem. 122 00:05:03,660 --> 00:05:06,740 [Rush Lindell] And that argument is gonna run right through election day. 123 00:05:07,180 --> 00:05:10,339 [Rush Lindell] But you know what actually holds its value while gas prices bounce 124 00:05:10,399 --> 00:05:10,720 [Rush Lindell] around? 125 00:05:11,079 --> 00:05:14,180 [Rush Lindell] Something you can put in your hand instead of your tank, which 126 00:05:14,199 --> 00:05:16,120 [Rush Lindell] is why I want to tell you about this. 127 00:05:16,560 --> 00:05:20,139 [Rush Lindell] My friends at Lear Capital are doing something I've never seen before. 128 00:05:20,379 --> 00:05:25,000 [Rush Lindell] They're selling a one ounce silver American Eagle below spot price. 129 00:05:25,319 --> 00:05:29,759 [Rush Lindell] That's right, below what silver is actually trading for right now, and 130 00:05:29,819 --> 00:05:32,519 [Rush Lindell] Lear is covering the shipping and taxes. 131 00:05:32,579 --> 00:05:33,560 [Reagan] Here's what you need to know. 132 00:05:33,600 --> 00:05:34,759 [Reagan] Priced below spot. 133 00:05:35,019 --> 00:05:37,529 [Reagan] Lear is selling this at a loss to get silver in your 134 00:05:37,620 --> 00:05:37,899 [Reagan] hands. 135 00:05:38,300 --> 00:05:39,519 [Reagan] Limit one per person. 136 00:05:39,620 --> 00:05:40,819 [Reagan] New customers only. 137 00:05:40,860 --> 00:05:41,389 [Reagan] Free shipping. 138 00:05:41,639 --> 00:05:43,060 [Reagan] Fully insured by Lear. 139 00:05:43,079 --> 00:05:45,098 [Reagan] This is a 24-hour offer only. 140 00:05:45,199 --> 00:05:49,089 [Rush Lindell] And just so you understand how rare this is, spot price doesn't 141 00:05:49,120 --> 00:05:52,540 [Rush Lindell] include the cost to mint the coin, ship it, or any dealer 142 00:05:52,620 --> 00:05:53,079 [Rush Lindell] overhead. 143 00:05:53,500 --> 00:05:55,899 [Rush Lindell] Buying at spot is already a deal. 144 00:05:55,939 --> 00:05:59,120 [Rush Lindell] Buying below spot almost never happens. 145 00:05:59,160 --> 00:06:01,480 [Reagan] This isn't some obscure bullion piece. 146 00:06:01,649 --> 00:06:06,269 [Reagan] The Silver American Eagle is one of the most recognizable and sought-after 147 00:06:06,300 --> 00:06:09,550 [Reagan] coins in the world, backed by the US government for weight and 148 00:06:09,579 --> 00:06:10,040 [Reagan] purity. 149 00:06:10,444 --> 00:06:16,264 [Reagan] One ounce of .999 fine silver, IRA eligible, a tangible asset you 150 00:06:16,303 --> 00:06:17,663 [Reagan] can hold in your hand. 151 00:06:17,764 --> 00:06:21,204 [Rush Lindell] Go to rushcoinoffer.com right now. 152 00:06:21,223 --> 00:06:23,124 [Rush Lindell] This is a 24-hour offer. 153 00:06:23,184 --> 00:06:26,874 [Rush Lindell] The URL goes dark after that, and when it's gone, it's gone. 154 00:06:27,324 --> 00:06:29,343 [Rush Lindell] rushcoinoffer.com. 155 00:06:29,824 --> 00:06:31,184 [Rush Lindell] Go check that out before it's gone. 156 00:06:31,684 --> 00:06:35,783 [Reagan] So diesel wages $500 out of every family's pocket. 157 00:06:35,863 --> 00:06:37,744 [Reagan] All of that funnels into one place. 158 00:06:38,204 --> 00:06:39,723 [Rush Lindell] The inflation number. 159 00:06:39,764 --> 00:06:42,744 [Reagan] Which is exactly what the Fed is staring at every time Kevin 160 00:06:42,843 --> 00:06:44,223 [Reagan] Warsh sits down at that table. 161 00:06:49,764 --> 00:06:52,064 [Rush Lindell] Reagan, translate a basis point for me. 162 00:06:52,144 --> 00:06:54,663 [Rush Lindell] What's nine of them actually cost somebody? 163 00:06:54,783 --> 00:06:57,624 [Reagan] On a normal mortgage, barely a coffee. 164 00:06:57,663 --> 00:07:00,884 [Reagan] The bond market moved because it didn't believe Kevin Warsh. 165 00:07:01,124 --> 00:07:01,903 [Rush Lindell] Walk me through that. 166 00:07:02,064 --> 00:07:06,074 [Rush Lindell] The Fed held at 350 to 375, 9 to 3 vote, and 167 00:07:06,084 --> 00:07:09,423 [Rush Lindell] Warsh said flat out he wouldn't hesitate to stop inflation. 168 00:07:09,483 --> 00:07:15,103 [Reagan] CNBC reported that same afternoon, the 30-year yield jumped past nine basis 169 00:07:15,144 --> 00:07:19,524 [Reagan] points, and the 10-year climbed to 4.657%. 170 00:07:19,564 --> 00:07:22,353 [Rush Lindell] So the market heard, "Trust me," and answered, "No"? 171 00:07:22,824 --> 00:07:23,603 [Reagan] Pretty much. 172 00:07:24,064 --> 00:07:26,584 [Reagan] Three members wanted a hike immediately. 173 00:07:26,624 --> 00:07:30,504 [Reagan] Traders read that as a committee arguing with itself over an oil 174 00:07:30,584 --> 00:07:35,043 [Reagan] shock inflation, the hardest kind of fight, because higher rates don't refine 175 00:07:35,124 --> 00:07:35,463 [Reagan] crude. 176 00:07:36,303 --> 00:07:38,783 [Rush Lindell] You can't tighten your way out of the Strait of Hormuz. 177 00:07:39,033 --> 00:07:39,863 [Reagan] That's the bind. 178 00:07:40,384 --> 00:07:44,343 [Reagan] Chase's market note now has a quarter-point September hike as the new 179 00:07:44,384 --> 00:07:49,363 [Reagan] base case, pointing at slow shipping normalization there and the credibility question 180 00:07:49,463 --> 00:07:51,024 [Reagan] Warsh raised on himself. 181 00:07:51,244 --> 00:07:53,144 [Rush Lindell] Put that one in car loan terms. 182 00:07:53,384 --> 00:07:56,764 [Reagan] A few extra dollars a month on new auto and card debt, 183 00:07:57,184 --> 00:07:58,843 [Reagan] more on adjustable mortgages. 184 00:07:59,233 --> 00:08:02,454 [Reagan] Small on paper, loud six weeks before an election. 185 00:08:02,704 --> 00:08:05,663 [Rush Lindell] And these odds swing like a pendulum with a grunge. 186 00:08:05,983 --> 00:08:10,524 [Reagan] CNBC had futures above 80% for a hike right after that July 187 00:08:10,603 --> 00:08:10,903 [Reagan] meeting. 188 00:08:11,384 --> 00:08:17,024 [Reagan] Then the July CPI print showed prices up 3.4% annually, and odds 189 00:08:17,124 --> 00:08:19,064 [Reagan] dropped to roughly 42. 190 00:08:19,223 --> 00:08:20,264 [Rush Lindell] 80 to 42? 191 00:08:20,584 --> 00:08:21,603 [Reagan] That's not settled. 192 00:08:21,613 --> 00:08:21,613 [Speaker 3] Wow. 193 00:08:21,644 --> 00:08:22,423 [Reagan] That's live. 194 00:08:22,603 --> 00:08:24,812 [Rush Lindell] September 15th and 16th then. 195 00:08:25,163 --> 00:08:28,923 [Reagan] Same week House Republicans start sweating every point hike like it's on 196 00:08:28,963 --> 00:08:29,824 [Reagan] their own ballot. 197 00:08:35,344 --> 00:08:36,803 [Rush Lindell] Forget the polling a second. 198 00:08:37,004 --> 00:08:40,563 [Rush Lindell] Let's run the House math nobody at the RNC wants to touch. 199 00:08:41,083 --> 00:08:41,524 [Reagan] Go ahead. 200 00:08:42,144 --> 00:08:46,384 [Rush Lindell] History says the party holding the House eats every cent of gas 201 00:08:46,423 --> 00:08:48,033 [Rush Lindell] pain, no matter whose cause. 202 00:08:48,394 --> 00:08:49,903 [Rush Lindell] Voters don't grade on a curve. 203 00:08:50,543 --> 00:08:52,124 [Reagan] They rarely do. 204 00:08:52,224 --> 00:08:54,583 [Rush Lindell] Now stack a rate hike on top. 205 00:08:54,764 --> 00:08:58,964 [Rush Lindell] Six weeks before election day, mortgage payments and credit card rates land 206 00:08:59,004 --> 00:09:01,484 [Rush Lindell] on the ballot right next to the war and the pump. 207 00:09:02,163 --> 00:09:02,753 [Reagan] Slow down. 208 00:09:02,783 --> 00:09:05,714 [Reagan] Is this really about gas or about a war voters were told 209 00:09:05,724 --> 00:09:06,774 [Reagan] would wrap up in weeks? 210 00:09:07,504 --> 00:09:08,683 [Rush Lindell] So it's not the receipts? 211 00:09:09,384 --> 00:09:13,283 [Reagan] 80% of the country, per that Reuters/Ipsos number from the top, thinks 212 00:09:13,323 --> 00:09:14,293 [Reagan] this drags on. 213 00:09:14,344 --> 00:09:16,783 [Reagan] That's patience running out, not just prices. 214 00:09:17,484 --> 00:09:20,994 [Rush Lindell] Fine, both, but the calendar doesn't care about nuance. 215 00:09:21,403 --> 00:09:23,764 [Rush Lindell] August CPI lands September 11th. 216 00:09:23,844 --> 00:09:23,913 [Reagan] Mm-hmm. 217 00:09:24,344 --> 00:09:26,224 [Reagan] Five days before the Fed even meets. 218 00:09:26,943 --> 00:09:32,634 [Rush Lindell] FOMC decides September 15th and 16th, two headlines back to back inside 219 00:09:32,663 --> 00:09:35,063 [Rush Lindell] the last stretch before voters lock in. 220 00:09:35,183 --> 00:09:37,693 [Reagan] Hot print off oil, Warsh has covered a hike. 221 00:09:37,984 --> 00:09:38,563 [Reagan] Soft print... 222 00:09:39,183 --> 00:09:42,644 [Rush Lindell] He's got covered a hold, and every House Republican in a swing 223 00:09:42,663 --> 00:09:44,464 [Rush Lindell] district is praying for soft. 224 00:09:45,004 --> 00:09:46,244 [Reagan] Praying's not a plan. 225 00:09:46,864 --> 00:09:49,163 [Rush Lindell] No, it's three dates and a lot of hoping. 226 00:09:49,644 --> 00:09:52,344 [Rush Lindell] Speaking of hoping, wait till you hear what the White House is 227 00:09:52,384 --> 00:09:53,744 [Rush Lindell] calling this energy picture. 228 00:09:54,364 --> 00:09:55,403 [Reagan] Oh, I can't wait. 229 00:10:01,094 --> 00:10:02,024 [Rush Lindell] Let's play a game. 230 00:10:02,423 --> 00:10:05,744 [Rush Lindell] I'm reading the actual line from the podium back in February. 231 00:10:06,163 --> 00:10:06,823 [Reagan] Oh, no. 232 00:10:07,344 --> 00:10:12,283 [Rush Lindell] Once we degrade Iran's ability to hit tankers, prices plummet back to 233 00:10:12,344 --> 00:10:14,124 [Rush Lindell] pre-conflict levels. 234 00:10:14,283 --> 00:10:14,884 [Reagan] And? 235 00:10:15,524 --> 00:10:18,764 [Rush Lindell] Six months later, still over $4 a gallon. 236 00:10:19,144 --> 00:10:21,964 [Rush Lindell] I'm calling this one the plummet that never came. 237 00:10:22,504 --> 00:10:23,144 [Reagan] Catchy. 238 00:10:23,624 --> 00:10:28,303 [Rush Lindell] Newsweek talked to Denton Cinquegrana, OPIS's chief oil analyst. 239 00:10:28,583 --> 00:10:32,903 [Rush Lindell] He says 2.98 gas is gone for the rest of 2026 and 240 00:10:32,984 --> 00:10:36,083 [Rush Lindell] might not come back until the second half of 2027. 241 00:10:36,583 --> 00:10:40,484 [Reagan] So the plummet got rescheduled for next year. 242 00:10:40,504 --> 00:10:43,333 [Rush Lindell] A mirage with a podium and a flag behind it. 243 00:10:43,903 --> 00:10:48,193 [Reagan] Funny thing is, this exact script ran in reverse in 2022. 244 00:10:48,683 --> 00:10:52,543 [Reagan] Conservatives spent that whole summer saying Biden owned the price at the 245 00:10:52,583 --> 00:10:54,604 [Reagan] pump, war or no war. 246 00:10:54,644 --> 00:10:55,524 [Rush Lindell] That's different. 247 00:10:55,583 --> 00:10:57,583 [Rush Lindell] That was Biden's policy failures. 248 00:10:58,203 --> 00:10:58,724 [Reagan] Was it? 249 00:10:59,163 --> 00:11:02,464 [Reagan] Or was it also a war shock nobody in the room controlled? 250 00:11:02,984 --> 00:11:06,484 [Reagan] Neither party ever wants to say the actual word out loud. 251 00:11:07,024 --> 00:11:07,563 [Rush Lindell] Which word? 252 00:11:08,104 --> 00:11:08,764 [Reagan] Hormuz. 253 00:11:09,144 --> 00:11:12,063 [Reagan] The Strait's still the choke point, whoever is holding the podium. 254 00:11:13,364 --> 00:11:13,744 [Rush Lindell] Fair. 255 00:11:14,124 --> 00:11:17,703 [Rush Lindell] Blame the Strait of Hormuz doesn't fit on a yard sign. 256 00:11:17,884 --> 00:11:19,254 [Reagan] Doesn't poll well either. 257 00:11:20,563 --> 00:11:23,484 [Rush Lindell] The parody is barely exaggerated at this point. 258 00:11:23,524 --> 00:11:24,884 [Rush Lindell] That's what gets me. 259 00:11:24,923 --> 00:11:26,833 [Reagan] So let's turn it on us for a second. 260 00:11:27,283 --> 00:11:31,543 [Reagan] Is any of this actually inflation or a supply shock we're mislabeling 261 00:11:31,583 --> 00:11:32,033 [Reagan] as one? 262 00:11:37,653 --> 00:11:40,244 [Reagan] Comment aside, look at what actually landed. 263 00:11:40,703 --> 00:11:48,953 [Reagan] CNBC's July CPI 0.1% monthly, 3.4% annual, core at 2.5. 264 00:11:49,384 --> 00:11:51,624 [Rush Lindell] That's still the wrong direction. 265 00:11:51,703 --> 00:11:57,203 [Reagan] Sure, but EY's breakdown showed grocery prices actually ticked down, the first 266 00:11:57,214 --> 00:11:59,923 [Reagan] dip since March, even while restaurant prices offset it. 267 00:12:00,443 --> 00:12:03,803 [Rush Lindell] So the checkout line cooled while the pump kept burning. 268 00:12:04,384 --> 00:12:05,144 [Reagan] That's the split. 269 00:12:05,703 --> 00:12:10,553 [Reagan] A wartime supply shock and a spending-driven inflation aren't the same animal, 270 00:12:10,984 --> 00:12:13,453 [Reagan] and conservatives shouldn't pretend otherwise just because- 271 00:12:13,683 --> 00:12:13,693 [Speaker 3] Mm-hmm 272 00:12:13,693 --> 00:12:13,693 [Reagan] ... 273 00:12:13,693 --> 00:12:14,984 [Reagan] the polling's convenient. 274 00:12:15,524 --> 00:12:15,864 [Rush Lindell] Fine. 275 00:12:16,279 --> 00:12:17,299 [Rush Lindell] I'll give you that much. 276 00:12:17,759 --> 00:12:20,960 [Reagan] But here's where the administration owns it: duration. 277 00:12:21,480 --> 00:12:25,720 [Reagan] A blockade strategy with no end date is a price policy, whether 278 00:12:25,740 --> 00:12:28,019 [Reagan] anyone in the West Wing calls it that or not. 279 00:12:28,600 --> 00:12:29,480 [Rush Lindell] Say that part again. 280 00:12:30,000 --> 00:12:34,039 [Reagan] You control how long the shock lasts, you're setting the price. 281 00:12:34,460 --> 00:12:36,309 [Reagan] That's a choice, not an accident. 282 00:12:36,710 --> 00:12:39,519 [Rush Lindell] That's the one version of this I can't wave off. 283 00:12:39,899 --> 00:12:40,379 [Reagan] Right. 284 00:12:40,440 --> 00:12:42,269 [Reagan] The war explains July. 285 00:12:42,299 --> 00:12:44,360 [Reagan] It doesn't explain September. 286 00:12:44,399 --> 00:12:48,419 [Rush Lindell] And every month it drags, this stops being about Tehran and starts 287 00:12:48,460 --> 00:12:49,519 [Rush Lindell] being about the West Wing. 288 00:12:55,100 --> 00:12:56,740 [Rush Lindell] Three dates decide the fall. 289 00:12:56,940 --> 00:12:57,580 [Rush Lindell] Write them down. 290 00:12:57,940 --> 00:12:58,340 [Reagan] Go ahead. 291 00:12:58,799 --> 00:13:00,620 [Rush Lindell] September 11th, CPI. 292 00:13:00,960 --> 00:13:03,559 [Rush Lindell] September 15th and 16th, the Fed. 293 00:13:03,919 --> 00:13:07,379 [Rush Lindell] And check the AAA average every single day in between. 294 00:13:07,779 --> 00:13:11,320 [Reagan] Because if crude's still sitting near 100 bucks a barrel when Warsh's 295 00:13:11,360 --> 00:13:12,139 [Reagan] committee meets? 296 00:13:12,639 --> 00:13:16,000 [Rush Lindell] And they hike anyway, this quits being a polling problem. 297 00:13:16,320 --> 00:13:17,360 [Rush Lindell] It's an economic one. 298 00:13:17,730 --> 00:13:21,240 [Reagan] And even if the Fed holds, oil doesn't answer to a vote. 299 00:13:21,580 --> 00:13:22,100 [Rush Lindell] No. 300 00:13:22,139 --> 00:13:25,399 [Rush Lindell] It answers to a war with no end date on the calendar. 301 00:13:25,409 --> 00:13:27,659 [Rush Lindell] That approval number stops being a floor. 302 00:13:28,080 --> 00:13:30,419 [Reagan] I'll take that bet with you, but if I'm wrong about the 303 00:13:30,460 --> 00:13:32,679 [Reagan] war explaining this, I want the mail on it. 304 00:13:34,080 --> 00:13:36,110 [Rush Lindell] The Plummet tour rolls on, folks. 305 00:13:36,519 --> 00:13:38,940 [Rush Lindell] Gas relief, always 90 days out. 306 00:13:39,289 --> 00:13:42,919 [Reagan] And if that promise is still broken on September 11th, that's a 307 00:13:43,000 --> 00:13:44,659 [Reagan] number with a date stamped on it. 308 00:13:44,700 --> 00:13:45,500 [Rush Lindell] A due date. 309 00:13:45,840 --> 00:13:46,879 [Rush Lindell] Three of them, actually. 310 00:13:47,360 --> 00:13:47,850 [Reagan] I mean that. 311 00:13:48,139 --> 00:13:50,440 [Reagan] If you think the war caused this and he's just caught in 312 00:13:50,480 --> 00:13:50,580 [Reagan] it- 313 00:13:50,779 --> 00:13:50,899 [Rush Lindell] Right. 314 00:13:50,909 --> 00:13:50,909 [Reagan] ... 315 00:13:50,940 --> 00:13:51,360 [Reagan] say so. 316 00:13:51,720 --> 00:13:52,779 [Reagan] Genuinely want to hear it. 317 00:13:53,980 --> 00:13:55,299 [Rush Lindell] She actually means that. 318 00:13:55,679 --> 00:13:56,039 [Reagan] I do. 319 00:14:01,460 --> 00:14:02,379 [Rush Lindell] So that's the Show. 320 00:14:02,720 --> 00:14:06,240 [Rush Lindell] A record low approval number, three separate polls agreeing- 321 00:14:06,250 --> 00:14:06,330 [Reagan] BGHOST1mhm 322 00:14:06,340 --> 00:14:06,340 [Rush Lindell] ... 323 00:14:06,460 --> 00:14:08,919 [Rush Lindell] and a gas gauge still climbing. 324 00:14:09,000 --> 00:14:13,450 [Reagan] And the real headline underneath it, voters trusting Democrats over money for 325 00:14:13,460 --> 00:14:15,100 [Reagan] the first time in years. 326 00:14:15,500 --> 00:14:17,960 [Rush Lindell] It's the wallet talking, plain and simple. 327 00:14:18,460 --> 00:14:20,000 [Reagan] I'd say it's both, honestly. 328 00:14:20,340 --> 00:14:21,039 [Reagan] But Fair point. 329 00:14:22,059 --> 00:14:22,679 [Rush Lindell] Progress. 330 00:14:22,879 --> 00:14:23,879 [Rush Lindell] Mark your calendars. 331 00:14:24,289 --> 00:14:27,899 [Rush Lindell] September 11th, CPI report, then the Fed meets mid-month. 332 00:14:28,360 --> 00:14:30,200 [Reagan] And check the AAA average yourself. 333 00:14:30,379 --> 00:14:31,460 [Reagan] Don't take our word for it. 334 00:14:32,480 --> 00:14:36,419 [Rush Lindell] Wow, Reagan, encouraging listeners to think for themselves on my Show. 335 00:14:37,039 --> 00:14:37,820 [Reagan] Somebody has to. 336 00:14:38,259 --> 00:14:41,919 [Rush Lindell] If you liked this one, subscribe, leave five stars, send it to 337 00:14:41,980 --> 00:14:44,730 [Rush Lindell] a friend still arguing about gas prices at dinner. 338 00:14:45,340 --> 00:14:47,620 [Reagan] New episodes drop every weekday. 339 00:14:47,779 --> 00:14:48,539 [Rush Lindell] I'm Rush Lindell. 340 00:14:49,019 --> 00:14:49,879 [Reagan] I'm Reagan. 341 00:14:49,919 --> 00:14:50,960 [Rush Lindell] We'll catch you next time.