1 00:00:15,720 --> 00:00:20,480 [Rush Lindell] Jared Kushner, Hakeem Jeffries, a room, no cameras. 2 00:00:20,660 --> 00:00:21,379 [Rush Lindell] You ready for this? 3 00:00:21,660 --> 00:00:22,859 [Reagan] Rush, slow down. 4 00:00:23,079 --> 00:00:23,320 [Rush Lindell] No. 5 00:00:23,609 --> 00:00:25,339 [Rush Lindell] No, I will not slow down. 6 00:00:25,379 --> 00:00:28,190 [Rush Lindell] This is Rush and Reagan, and I've got a story that smells 7 00:00:28,219 --> 00:00:32,030 [Rush Lindell] like the White House hedging its own bet on its own guy 8 00:00:32,039 --> 00:00:33,000 [Rush Lindell] in an election year. 9 00:00:33,320 --> 00:00:38,060 [Reagan] Brought to you by Lear Capital, America's Precious Metals Leader since 1997. 10 00:00:39,060 --> 00:00:39,719 [Rush Lindell] There it is. 11 00:00:40,100 --> 00:00:44,600 [Rush Lindell] Now, Mike Johnson goes on Fox Sunday, brushes this whole meeting off 12 00:00:44,619 --> 00:00:45,439 [Rush Lindell] like it's nothing. 13 00:00:45,659 --> 00:00:46,899 [Reagan] Here's why that matters, though. 14 00:00:47,340 --> 00:00:50,700 [Reagan] If Kushner's quietly building a relationship with the man who'd run the 15 00:00:50,740 --> 00:00:54,020 [Reagan] House under a Democratic majority, that's not nothing. 16 00:00:54,240 --> 00:00:57,439 [Reagan] That's a bet on who's actually in charge come January. 17 00:00:57,479 --> 00:00:58,320 [Rush Lindell] That's a hedge. 18 00:00:58,679 --> 00:01:01,719 [Reagan] Maybe, or it's just Washington being Washington. 19 00:01:01,780 --> 00:01:02,619 [Rush Lindell] Oh, come on. 20 00:01:02,880 --> 00:01:04,180 [Reagan] I'm not saying dismiss it. 21 00:01:04,599 --> 00:01:07,500 [Reagan] I'm saying let's see what actually happened in that room before we 22 00:01:07,560 --> 00:01:08,840 [Reagan] crown it a conspiracy. 23 00:01:09,159 --> 00:01:09,700 [Rush Lindell] Fine. 24 00:01:09,959 --> 00:01:12,599 [Rush Lindell] Let's go find out who was really in that room. 25 00:01:17,939 --> 00:01:18,780 [Rush Lindell] Reagan, sit down. 26 00:01:19,280 --> 00:01:22,540 [Rush Lindell] Jared Kushner, the president's son-in-law, sat in a room with Hakeem Jeffries, 27 00:01:22,920 --> 00:01:23,819 [Rush Lindell] just the two of them. 28 00:01:23,840 --> 00:01:24,450 [Reagan] I saw that. 29 00:01:24,760 --> 00:01:26,819 [Reagan] Housing, immigration, cost of living. 30 00:01:26,859 --> 00:01:28,400 [Reagan] That's the reported agenda. 31 00:01:28,459 --> 00:01:29,840 [Rush Lindell] That's not a courtesy call. 32 00:01:29,959 --> 00:01:31,620 [Rush Lindell] That's scouting. 33 00:01:31,760 --> 00:01:32,939 [Reagan] Scouting for what, though? 34 00:01:33,659 --> 00:01:35,099 [Rush Lindell] For divided government. 35 00:01:35,439 --> 00:01:37,459 [Rush Lindell] You don't build a bridge to the other side unless you think 36 00:01:37,500 --> 00:01:39,219 [Rush Lindell] you might need it in January. 37 00:01:39,379 --> 00:01:41,920 [Reagan] The Associated Press piece frames it a specific way. 38 00:01:42,250 --> 00:01:45,689 [Reagan] It says, "Political analysts see this as the White House testing how 39 00:01:45,719 --> 00:01:48,930 [Reagan] it would work with Democrats if Republicans lose the House majority in 40 00:01:48,939 --> 00:01:49,939 [Reagan] November." 41 00:01:49,980 --> 00:01:50,700 [Rush Lindell] Say that slower. 42 00:01:51,439 --> 00:01:52,959 [Reagan] If Republicans lose it. 43 00:01:53,640 --> 00:01:55,659 [Rush Lindell] Oh, there it is. 44 00:01:56,280 --> 00:01:57,939 [Reagan] I'm not saying that's Kushner's motive. 45 00:01:58,000 --> 00:01:59,180 [Reagan] I'm saying that's the read. 46 00:01:59,879 --> 00:02:02,920 [Rush Lindell] Here's my thesis, and I want you to poke holes in it. 47 00:02:02,980 --> 00:02:05,780 [Rush Lindell] You don't send your most trusted operator to build rapport with the 48 00:02:05,819 --> 00:02:09,258 [Rush Lindell] Democratic leader if you're confident you're keeping the gavel. 49 00:02:09,319 --> 00:02:11,120 [Rush Lindell] Confidence doesn't hedge. 50 00:02:11,879 --> 00:02:15,340 [Reagan] Sure, but Kushner's also just a guy who likes solving problems across 51 00:02:15,379 --> 00:02:16,099 [Reagan] the aisle. 52 00:02:16,159 --> 00:02:18,680 [Reagan] He did it on criminal justice reform in the first term back 53 00:02:18,699 --> 00:02:20,639 [Reagan] when nobody thought the majority was in question. 54 00:02:21,280 --> 00:02:22,639 [Rush Lindell] Different era, different math. 55 00:02:22,979 --> 00:02:26,039 [Rush Lindell] This is August of an election year, and the man's counting votes 56 00:02:26,120 --> 00:02:29,740 [Rush Lindell] he might not have and doing it quietly out of camera range. 57 00:02:30,520 --> 00:02:33,719 [Reagan] Maybe, or he's counting votes he might need for something specific. 58 00:02:34,099 --> 00:02:37,039 [Reagan] Housing policy doesn't require a majority flip to matter. 59 00:02:37,819 --> 00:02:38,079 [Rush Lindell] Fine. 60 00:02:38,269 --> 00:02:42,789 [Rush Lindell] Small concession, but three topics: housing, immigration, cost of living. 61 00:02:43,060 --> 00:02:47,180 [Rush Lindell] Those are exactly the issues Democrats think flip suburban districts. 62 00:02:47,189 --> 00:02:48,379 [Reagan] That part I won't argue. 63 00:02:49,379 --> 00:02:49,939 [Rush Lindell] Progress. 64 00:02:50,560 --> 00:02:52,900 [Reagan] But the meeting wasn't the only thing making noise this week. 65 00:02:53,680 --> 00:02:54,360 [Rush Lindell] No, it was not. 66 00:02:54,560 --> 00:02:57,400 [Rush Lindell] Because the second that leaked, Hakeem's people started talking. 67 00:02:58,020 --> 00:03:00,740 [Reagan] And not everybody on that side was thrilled he took the meeting. 68 00:03:06,400 --> 00:03:10,379 [Rush Lindell] Oh, the left did not take this well, not even a little. 69 00:03:10,960 --> 00:03:14,360 [Reagan] Mediaite ran the headline itself, "This guy needs to go." 70 00:03:15,620 --> 00:03:16,919 [Rush Lindell] That's not a headline. 71 00:03:17,099 --> 00:03:18,039 [Rush Lindell] That's a eulogy. 72 00:03:18,549 --> 00:03:21,719 [Reagan] And buried in there is a detail from The New York Times. 73 00:03:21,780 --> 00:03:23,979 [Reagan] A mutual friend set the whole meeting up. 74 00:03:24,500 --> 00:03:28,620 [Rush Lindell] A mutual friend, like this was a dinner party, not a sit-down 75 00:03:28,629 --> 00:03:30,520 [Rush Lindell] with the Speaker-in-waiting's family. 76 00:03:31,020 --> 00:03:34,879 [Reagan] The Times read it as evidence Trump's own allies expect a Democratic-led 77 00:03:34,960 --> 00:03:35,419 [Reagan] House. 78 00:03:35,979 --> 00:03:39,500 [Rush Lindell] Which is the same read we had 10 minutes ago, except now 79 00:03:39,560 --> 00:03:43,099 [Rush Lindell] it's coming from Jeffries' own side eating him alive on Twitter. 80 00:03:43,719 --> 00:03:45,180 [Reagan] So he had to answer it. 81 00:03:45,780 --> 00:03:47,039 [Rush Lindell] Oh, he answered. 82 00:03:47,409 --> 00:03:48,740 [Rush Lindell] Jeffries put out a video. 83 00:03:49,240 --> 00:03:49,919 [Reagan] Forbes covered it. 84 00:03:50,139 --> 00:03:52,879 [Reagan] He says the meeting was about the affordability crisis. 85 00:03:53,439 --> 00:03:56,060 [Rush Lindell] Affordability crisis, sure. 86 00:03:56,080 --> 00:03:59,090 [Rush Lindell] Two guys who've never worried about a grocery bill in their lives 87 00:03:59,180 --> 00:04:00,539 [Rush Lindell] talking affordability. 88 00:04:01,449 --> 00:04:02,199 [Reagan] Fair. 89 00:04:02,280 --> 00:04:04,360 [Rush Lindell] But here's the part I actually like. 90 00:04:04,740 --> 00:04:08,580 [Rush Lindell] He goes further, says the Trump cartel won't get a pass. 91 00:04:09,199 --> 00:04:10,139 [Reagan] Trump cartel? 92 00:04:10,460 --> 00:04:12,539 [Reagan] That's a phrase he's going to hear for a while. 93 00:04:13,139 --> 00:04:13,919 [Rush Lindell] It's theater. 94 00:04:14,219 --> 00:04:15,979 [Rush Lindell] He's trying to have it both ways. 95 00:04:15,990 --> 00:04:19,088 [Rush Lindell] "I'll sit down with Kushner, but don't you dare call me soft." 96 00:04:19,420 --> 00:04:22,699 [Rush Lindell] It's the oldest move in the book, and it rarely survives contact 97 00:04:22,740 --> 00:04:23,939 [Rush Lindell] with reality. 98 00:04:24,019 --> 00:04:26,100 [Reagan] Can you actually do both, though? 99 00:04:26,459 --> 00:04:26,660 [Rush Lindell] No. 100 00:04:26,959 --> 00:04:27,699 [Rush Lindell] No, you cannot. 101 00:04:28,100 --> 00:04:31,139 [Rush Lindell] You either took the meeting or you didn't, and everybody saw the 102 00:04:31,199 --> 00:04:31,620 [Rush Lindell] report. 103 00:04:32,279 --> 00:04:35,139 [Reagan] So he's managing his left flank while the right- 104 00:04:35,720 --> 00:04:38,300 [Rush Lindell] Is having a completely different reaction. 105 00:04:38,339 --> 00:04:41,220 [Rush Lindell] Johnson's out there acting like none of this happened. 106 00:04:41,259 --> 00:04:45,199 [Reagan] While Jeffries is putting out damage control videos, Johnson's over on Fox 107 00:04:45,220 --> 00:04:46,540 [Reagan] doing his own kind of spin. 108 00:04:47,139 --> 00:04:49,639 [Rush Lindell] A totally different flavor of spin. 109 00:04:49,680 --> 00:04:51,199 [Rush Lindell] Wait till you hear what he told Doocy. 110 00:04:56,920 --> 00:04:59,519 [Rush Lindell] So Doocy corners Johnson on the meeting, right? 111 00:04:59,740 --> 00:05:02,680 [Rush Lindell] And Johnson doesn't touch the substance, not one word. 112 00:05:03,120 --> 00:05:04,139 [Reagan] What does he say instead? 113 00:05:04,699 --> 00:05:09,439 [Rush Lindell] He says Kushner hedges bets, his words, then pivots straight to, "You 114 00:05:09,540 --> 00:05:11,439 [Rush Lindell] better not bet against the House Republicans." 115 00:05:11,939 --> 00:05:13,639 [Reagan] Wait, he calls it a hedge? 116 00:05:14,120 --> 00:05:15,959 [Rush Lindell] A hedge on his own guy. 117 00:05:17,550 --> 00:05:18,800 [Reagan] That's not a deflection. 118 00:05:18,860 --> 00:05:21,060 [Reagan] That's a confession with extra steps. 119 00:05:21,560 --> 00:05:25,459 [Rush Lindell] Newsweek's got the whole exchange, and Johnson tosses in this number. 120 00:05:25,500 --> 00:05:29,439 [Rush Lindell] He says the midterms come down to about 19 competitive seats. 121 00:05:30,019 --> 00:05:31,180 [Reagan] 19 seats? 122 00:05:31,740 --> 00:05:34,199 [Rush Lindell] 19 out of 435. 123 00:05:34,399 --> 00:05:37,399 [Rush Lindell] That's the entire ballgame according to the speaker himself. 124 00:05:37,860 --> 00:05:39,759 [Reagan] Okay, but slow down on the word choice. 125 00:05:40,120 --> 00:05:41,040 [Reagan] Hedges bets. 126 00:05:41,399 --> 00:05:44,220 [Reagan] What does Johnson actually saying about Kushner there? 127 00:05:44,660 --> 00:05:48,300 [Rush Lindell] He's saying the White House's own son-in-law is playing both sides of 128 00:05:48,319 --> 00:05:48,779 [Rush Lindell] the table. 129 00:05:49,199 --> 00:05:52,279 [Reagan] Right, and you don't say that about your own team unless part 130 00:05:52,319 --> 00:05:53,310 [Reagan] of you believes it. 131 00:05:53,740 --> 00:05:54,899 [Rush Lindell] Exactly, Reagan. 132 00:05:54,980 --> 00:05:55,920 [Rush Lindell] That's the tell. 133 00:05:55,980 --> 00:05:58,920 [Rush Lindell] You don't call your ally's move a hedge and then tell the 134 00:05:58,980 --> 00:06:01,360 [Rush Lindell] country not to bet against you in the same breath. 135 00:06:01,800 --> 00:06:04,839 [Reagan] Unless the bravado's doing the work the numbers can't. 136 00:06:05,319 --> 00:06:06,160 [Speaker 3] Exactly. 137 00:06:06,170 --> 00:06:09,129 [Speaker 3] It's like a poker player yelling, "I've got the winning hand," while 138 00:06:09,160 --> 00:06:12,699 [Speaker 3] he's quietly sliding chips back across the table to cover his own 139 00:06:12,779 --> 00:06:13,259 [Speaker 3] bet. 140 00:06:13,360 --> 00:06:14,550 [Reagan] You can't do both. 141 00:06:14,600 --> 00:06:16,879 [Reagan] Either you believe the hand or you're hedging it. 142 00:06:17,360 --> 00:06:17,620 [Speaker 3] Right. 143 00:06:17,759 --> 00:06:21,019 [Speaker 3] And here's what gets me about the 19 seats line specifically. 144 00:06:21,180 --> 00:06:22,180 [Speaker 3] That's not bravado. 145 00:06:22,360 --> 00:06:24,279 [Speaker 3] That's a guy doing math out loud. 146 00:06:24,660 --> 00:06:27,899 [Reagan] It is oddly specific for a man who just told Doocy the 147 00:06:27,939 --> 00:06:28,959 [Reagan] whole thing's a lock. 148 00:06:29,459 --> 00:06:31,699 [Speaker 3] If it's a lock, you don't need to count seats. 149 00:06:31,839 --> 00:06:33,779 [Speaker 3] You just say, "We win," and move on. 150 00:06:34,259 --> 00:06:37,218 [Reagan] Counting to 19 is what you do when you actually think it's 151 00:06:37,259 --> 00:06:37,740 [Reagan] close. 152 00:06:38,720 --> 00:06:39,879 [Speaker 3] So which is it, Mike? 153 00:06:39,959 --> 00:06:42,819 [Speaker 3] A lock or 19 seats you're sweating? 154 00:06:42,899 --> 00:06:46,500 [Reagan] Can't be both, and that's the whole tell in one press conference. 155 00:06:47,040 --> 00:06:47,339 [Speaker 3] All right. 156 00:06:47,420 --> 00:06:50,680 [Speaker 3] So we've got Kushner hedging in a private room and now Johnson 157 00:06:50,740 --> 00:06:54,199 [Speaker 3] hedging out loud on camera without even realizing he's doing it. 158 00:06:54,660 --> 00:06:57,339 [Reagan] Two different hedges, same family, same week. 159 00:06:57,800 --> 00:06:59,920 [Speaker 3] So who's actually right about the odds here? 160 00:06:59,959 --> 00:07:02,170 [Speaker 3] Because trust me isn't a number. 161 00:07:02,199 --> 00:07:04,420 [Reagan] Let's go look at what the actual numbers say. 162 00:07:10,079 --> 00:07:10,560 [Speaker 3] Sure, pause. 163 00:07:10,910 --> 00:07:11,459 [Reagan] Sure, pause. 164 00:07:11,740 --> 00:07:13,750 [Reagan] Here's what the polling actually says. 165 00:07:14,220 --> 00:07:19,079 [Reagan] A Reuters/Ipsos survey from August has registered voters favoring Democratic candidates for 166 00:07:19,120 --> 00:07:22,220 [Reagan] Congress 42% to 37. 167 00:07:22,259 --> 00:07:25,139 [Speaker 3] Five points, not a landslide, but it's a lean, and it's the 168 00:07:25,240 --> 00:07:28,519 [Speaker 3] wrong direction for the Speaker who just told Doocy, "Don't bet against 169 00:07:28,600 --> 00:07:28,759 [Speaker 3] us." 170 00:07:29,139 --> 00:07:29,660 [Reagan] It's more. 171 00:07:30,100 --> 00:07:34,399 [Reagan] A separate Reuters/Ipsos poll put Trump's approval at 33%. 172 00:07:34,920 --> 00:07:35,600 [Speaker 3] 33. 173 00:07:35,920 --> 00:07:37,250 [Reagan] Lowest of his presidency. 174 00:07:37,620 --> 00:07:38,899 [Speaker 3] So one in three. 175 00:07:38,939 --> 00:07:40,189 [Speaker 3] That's not a stumble, Reagan. 176 00:07:40,259 --> 00:07:43,720 [Speaker 3] That's a floor falling out from under the guy whose coattails Johnson's 177 00:07:43,740 --> 00:07:45,500 [Speaker 3] entire majority is riding on. 178 00:07:45,709 --> 00:07:47,540 [Reagan] It's a snapshot, not a prophecy. 179 00:07:47,920 --> 00:07:50,240 [Reagan] Polls in August have moved plenty by November. 180 00:07:50,660 --> 00:07:54,139 [Speaker 3] Sure, but Kushner doesn't sit down with Jeffries because the vibes are 181 00:07:54,180 --> 00:07:54,420 [Speaker 3] great. 182 00:07:54,639 --> 00:07:58,160 [Speaker 3] He sits down because somebody in that building saw these same numbers 183 00:07:58,180 --> 00:07:59,120 [Speaker 3] and started hedging. 184 00:07:59,420 --> 00:08:00,180 [Reagan] That's the theory. 185 00:08:00,420 --> 00:08:01,720 [Speaker 3] It's not a theory, Reagan. 186 00:08:01,819 --> 00:08:02,720 [Speaker 3] It's arithmetic. 187 00:08:03,060 --> 00:08:06,600 [Speaker 3] Speaking of hedging against numbers you don't like, my buddies at Lear Capital are doing something I've genuinely never seen them do. 188 00:08:06,660 --> 00:08:10,319 [Speaker 3] What's that? 189 00:08:10,379 --> 00:08:11,040 [Reagan] They're selling the one ounce silver American Eagle below spot price, below 190 00:08:11,050 --> 00:08:15,459 [Speaker 3] what silver's actually trading for, and Lear covers the shipping and the 191 00:08:15,470 --> 00:08:19,240 [Speaker 3] taxes. 192 00:08:19,300 --> 00:08:19,779 [Speaker 3] Below spot? 193 00:08:20,180 --> 00:08:21,399 [Reagan] That almost never happens. 194 00:08:21,470 --> 00:08:23,060 [Reagan] Never. 195 00:08:23,079 --> 00:08:23,689 [Speaker 3] Spot doesn't even cover minting the coin, shipping it, or dealer overhead. 196 00:08:23,689 --> 00:08:27,410 [Speaker 3] So buying it spot is already a good deal. 197 00:08:27,639 --> 00:08:30,100 [Speaker 3] This is below that. 198 00:08:30,199 --> 00:08:31,540 [Speaker 3] Limit one per person, new customers only. 199 00:08:31,620 --> 00:08:34,220 [Speaker 3] Shipping's free and fully insured by Lear, and it's a 24-hour offer. 200 00:08:34,240 --> 00:08:38,559 [Speaker 3] Shipping's free and fully insured by Lear, and it's a 24-hour offer. 201 00:08:38,799 --> 00:08:41,720 [Reagan] www.rushcoinoffer.com. 202 00:08:42,000 --> 00:08:45,000 [Speaker 3] Now, back to Johnson's floor falling out from under him. 203 00:08:45,340 --> 00:08:45,600 [Reagan] Right. 204 00:08:45,730 --> 00:08:49,299 [Reagan] The approval number and the generic ballot both moved against him in 205 00:08:49,340 --> 00:08:51,480 [Reagan] the same month Kushner picked up the phone. 206 00:08:51,720 --> 00:08:55,019 [Speaker 3] And Johnson stood on Fox and didn't mention either one. 207 00:09:00,580 --> 00:09:02,039 [Speaker 3] 66%, Reagan. 208 00:09:02,200 --> 00:09:02,928 [Speaker 3] Write it down. 209 00:09:03,340 --> 00:09:08,120 [Reagan] Decision Desk HQ through The Hill put Democrats at a 66% chance 210 00:09:08,159 --> 00:09:11,120 [Reagan] of flipping the House, a snapshot from Friday. 211 00:09:11,179 --> 00:09:12,080 [Speaker 3] Two out of three. 212 00:09:12,120 --> 00:09:13,299 [Speaker 3] That's not a coin flip. 213 00:09:13,340 --> 00:09:14,539 [Speaker 3] That's a lean. 214 00:09:14,620 --> 00:09:17,708 [Reagan] It's a probability, not a promise, but it's the kind of number 215 00:09:17,840 --> 00:09:19,919 [Reagan] sitting on somebody's desk in the West Wing. 216 00:09:20,440 --> 00:09:24,080 [Speaker 3] And Johnson's out there on Fox saying, "Absolutely," like he's got the 217 00:09:24,120 --> 00:09:25,039 [Speaker 3] deed to the building. 218 00:09:25,480 --> 00:09:26,980 [Reagan] Probabilities move, Rush. 219 00:09:27,299 --> 00:09:28,549 [Reagan] 66 isn't 90. 220 00:09:29,139 --> 00:09:32,440 [Speaker 3] Sure, but nobody sends the son-in-law across the aisle over a lean 221 00:09:32,500 --> 00:09:33,059 [Speaker 3] they like. 222 00:09:33,559 --> 00:09:35,779 [Reagan] You send him over a lean you're worried about. 223 00:09:36,289 --> 00:09:36,960 [Speaker 3] There it is. 224 00:09:37,360 --> 00:09:38,220 [Reagan] Here's my pivot. 225 00:09:38,460 --> 00:09:42,080 [Reagan] Kushner sitting down with Jeffries makes a lot more sense next to 226 00:09:42,360 --> 00:09:45,299 [Reagan] 66 than it does next to absolutely. 227 00:09:45,460 --> 00:09:48,708 [Speaker 3] Say that again slower for the people still defending Johnson. 228 00:09:49,139 --> 00:09:50,919 [Reagan] The White House can read a forecast. 229 00:09:51,139 --> 00:09:52,759 [Reagan] Johnson can read a teleprompter. 230 00:09:53,460 --> 00:09:54,559 [Speaker 3] Oh, that's mean. 231 00:09:54,679 --> 00:09:55,240 [Speaker 3] I like it. 232 00:09:55,679 --> 00:09:56,460 [Reagan] It's not mean. 233 00:09:56,490 --> 00:09:59,320 [Reagan] It's just one of them has to answer for the majority in 234 00:09:59,379 --> 00:09:59,779 [Reagan] public. 235 00:09:59,950 --> 00:10:02,200 [Reagan] The other just has to protect the guy who does. 236 00:10:02,740 --> 00:10:07,139 [Speaker 3] So Kushner's hedging Trump's bet, and Johnson's stuck holding the microphone. 237 00:10:07,580 --> 00:10:08,320 [Reagan] That's the split. 238 00:10:08,500 --> 00:10:10,139 [Reagan] The family protects the asset. 239 00:10:10,269 --> 00:10:11,980 [Reagan] The speaker protects the narrative. 240 00:10:12,480 --> 00:10:13,678 [Speaker 3] Two different jobs. 241 00:10:14,100 --> 00:10:17,169 [Reagan] Two very different jobs, and only one of them has to look 242 00:10:17,279 --> 00:10:20,629 [Reagan] a camera in the eye and promise the majority holds night after 243 00:10:20,720 --> 00:10:22,710 [Reagan] night, whether he believes it or not. 244 00:10:23,240 --> 00:10:23,639 [Speaker 3] Right. 245 00:10:23,659 --> 00:10:27,529 [Speaker 3] And if the model's got Democrats at two-thirds odds, that promise is 246 00:10:27,539 --> 00:10:30,409 [Speaker 3] doing a lot of heavy lifting for a man who won't even 247 00:10:30,460 --> 00:10:32,198 [Speaker 3] say the number out loud. 248 00:10:32,259 --> 00:10:36,200 [Reagan] Especially when the family isn't behaving like it believes the promise. 249 00:10:36,659 --> 00:10:36,960 [Speaker 3] All right. 250 00:10:37,059 --> 00:10:41,779 [Speaker 3] So the math says two-thirds Democrat, and Johnson says absolutely Republican. 251 00:10:42,080 --> 00:10:44,220 [Speaker 3] Somebody's not telling the whole story. 252 00:10:44,320 --> 00:10:48,019 [Reagan] Or hedging in public and hoping nobody runs the numbers out loud. 253 00:10:48,519 --> 00:10:49,068 [Speaker 3] Dead man. 254 00:10:49,600 --> 00:10:50,080 [Reagan] We did. 255 00:10:50,600 --> 00:10:51,110 [Speaker 3] We did. 256 00:10:51,679 --> 00:10:53,820 [Speaker 3] So go pull the clip, the Doocy one. 257 00:10:53,960 --> 00:10:58,440 [Speaker 3] I wanna hear exactly how Johnson said absolutely, the tone, the pause, 258 00:10:58,639 --> 00:10:59,039 [Speaker 3] all of it. 259 00:10:59,419 --> 00:11:01,879 [Reagan] Because the hedge isn't in what he left out. 260 00:11:01,899 --> 00:11:03,870 [Reagan] It's sitting right there in what he said. 261 00:11:04,350 --> 00:11:06,240 [Speaker 3] Play it back, Reagan, word for word. 262 00:11:11,820 --> 00:11:14,179 [Speaker 3] Doocy sat him down and asked it straight. 263 00:11:14,600 --> 00:11:17,840 [Speaker 3] "Can Republicans hold the House if that Iran war is still going 264 00:11:17,860 --> 00:11:18,340 [Speaker 3] in November?" 265 00:11:18,779 --> 00:11:19,980 [Reagan] And Johnson didn't blink. 266 00:11:20,379 --> 00:11:21,419 [Speaker 3] "Absolutely." 267 00:11:21,679 --> 00:11:22,480 [Speaker 3] That's the whole answer. 268 00:11:22,820 --> 00:11:25,279 [Speaker 3] One word, chin up, camera ready. 269 00:11:25,700 --> 00:11:28,179 [Reagan] One word doesn't erase everything we just laid out, though. 270 00:11:28,620 --> 00:11:30,919 [Speaker 3] No, but it plays great on Fox. 271 00:11:30,980 --> 00:11:32,980 [Reagan] Convenient word to have on hand. 272 00:11:33,080 --> 00:11:34,129 [Speaker 3] Oh, it gets better. 273 00:11:34,600 --> 00:11:38,480 [Speaker 3] Same Fox sit down, Al Jazeera picked up the part that doesn't 274 00:11:38,519 --> 00:11:39,460 [Speaker 3] make the highlight reel. 275 00:11:39,960 --> 00:11:43,639 [Speaker 3] Same speaker admits it would be helpful if the war is actually 276 00:11:43,740 --> 00:11:45,259 [Speaker 3] wrapped before anybody votes. 277 00:11:45,700 --> 00:11:46,960 [Reagan] So he wants it over. 278 00:11:47,320 --> 00:11:48,159 [Speaker 3] He wants it over. 279 00:11:48,460 --> 00:11:49,299 [Speaker 3] You ready for this? 280 00:11:49,419 --> 00:11:50,019 [Speaker 3] Watch the bit. 281 00:11:50,649 --> 00:11:55,700 [Speaker 3] "Absolutely, Republicans hold the House," unless it's not, in which case, quote, 282 00:11:56,039 --> 00:11:57,990 [Speaker 3] "Would be helpful if it wraps first." 283 00:11:58,860 --> 00:12:01,779 [Reagan] You can't run both lines in the same breath and call it 284 00:12:01,820 --> 00:12:02,389 [Reagan] conviction. 285 00:12:02,730 --> 00:12:04,059 [Speaker 3] That's my whole point. 286 00:12:04,120 --> 00:12:07,000 [Speaker 3] You don't get to tell Peter Doocy, "We've got this," and then 287 00:12:07,120 --> 00:12:10,509 [Speaker 3] 30 seconds later admit you're rooting for a ceasefire to save your 288 00:12:10,519 --> 00:12:11,379 [Speaker 3] majority. 289 00:12:11,419 --> 00:12:15,440 [Reagan] To be fair, wanting a war to end isn't exactly a scandal. 290 00:12:15,580 --> 00:12:19,549 [Speaker 3] Still, wanting it to end before an election specifically because you think 291 00:12:19,580 --> 00:12:22,330 [Speaker 3] it helps you at the ballot box isn't quite the same as 292 00:12:22,330 --> 00:12:23,840 [Speaker 3] statesmanship, Reagan. 293 00:12:23,879 --> 00:12:26,639 [Speaker 3] It's a guy checking the weather before he commits to the picnic. 294 00:12:27,851 --> 00:12:28,211 [Reagan] Fine. 295 00:12:28,731 --> 00:12:30,381 [Reagan] But notice what he's doing. 296 00:12:30,831 --> 00:12:34,032 [Reagan] "Absolutely" is for the base, the applause line. 297 00:12:34,142 --> 00:12:37,591 [Reagan] "Would be helpful" is the part he only says once Doocy's already 298 00:12:37,631 --> 00:12:38,432 [Reagan] got him talking. 299 00:12:38,772 --> 00:12:39,011 [Rush Lindell] Right. 300 00:12:39,192 --> 00:12:42,471 [Rush Lindell] One line for the cameras, one line for the record, and nobody 301 00:12:42,552 --> 00:12:44,792 [Rush Lindell] clips the second one for the 6:00 news. 302 00:12:45,251 --> 00:12:47,711 [Reagan] Because the second one is the honest one. 303 00:12:47,812 --> 00:12:48,652 [Rush Lindell] Exactly. 304 00:12:48,711 --> 00:12:52,131 [Rush Lindell] Johnson knows the war is a variable he can't control, and he 305 00:12:52,152 --> 00:12:54,611 [Rush Lindell] knows it cuts against him if it drags on. 306 00:12:54,711 --> 00:12:58,392 [Rush Lindell] So he hedges out loud, on Fox, in real time. 307 00:12:58,851 --> 00:13:02,052 [Reagan] Sure, but he's not the only Republican hedging on this war. 308 00:13:02,532 --> 00:13:03,511 [Rush Lindell] Oh, here we go. 309 00:13:03,971 --> 00:13:07,552 [Reagan] The Senate did its own dance on Iran war powers weeks before 310 00:13:07,591 --> 00:13:08,172 [Reagan] any of this. 311 00:13:08,552 --> 00:13:11,231 [Reagan] Key Republicans flipped their votes on restricting it. 312 00:13:11,572 --> 00:13:13,951 [Rush Lindell] Wait, Key Republicans flipped their votes? 313 00:13:14,412 --> 00:13:15,591 [Reagan] Yep, we'll get to that. 314 00:13:15,812 --> 00:13:19,111 [Rush Lindell] Which, hold that thought, because that's the part that actually tells you 315 00:13:19,131 --> 00:13:22,251 [Rush Lindell] what the party believes when the cameras aren't rolling on Doocy. 316 00:13:22,692 --> 00:13:23,251 [Reagan] Exactly. 317 00:13:23,672 --> 00:13:25,631 [Reagan] Public certainty, private math. 318 00:13:25,991 --> 00:13:27,361 [Reagan] Same movie, different theater. 319 00:13:27,721 --> 00:13:30,552 [Rush Lindell] And that's where we're headed next, what the people actually writing the 320 00:13:30,611 --> 00:13:31,932 [Rush Lindell] checks think is gonna happen. 321 00:13:37,392 --> 00:13:40,652 [Rush Lindell] So, the Senate, late June, they vote down a measure to rein 322 00:13:40,672 --> 00:13:42,991 [Rush Lindell] in the President's power to keep fighting in Iran. 323 00:13:43,091 --> 00:13:45,172 [Reagan] Right, and that's not the strange part. 324 00:13:45,231 --> 00:13:48,211 [Rush Lindell] The strange part is one day earlier, the votes weren't there for 325 00:13:48,251 --> 00:13:48,851 [Rush Lindell] the White House. 326 00:13:49,192 --> 00:13:51,011 [Reagan] Key Republicans just moved. 327 00:13:51,511 --> 00:13:52,351 [Rush Lindell] Overnight. 328 00:13:52,491 --> 00:13:55,751 [Rush Lindell] One day you got Senate Republicans wobbling on giving Trump a blank 329 00:13:55,831 --> 00:13:58,951 [Rush Lindell] check for the war, and the next day it's a lockstep no. 330 00:13:59,371 --> 00:14:00,532 [Reagan] Somebody made calls. 331 00:14:01,251 --> 00:14:02,812 [Rush Lindell] Somebody always makes calls, Reagan. 332 00:14:03,272 --> 00:14:06,331 [Reagan] But that's the pattern for this whole episode, isn't it? 333 00:14:06,371 --> 00:14:10,111 [Reagan] Public certainty that shows up exactly when it's needed after a night 334 00:14:10,172 --> 00:14:11,251 [Reagan] of private scrambling. 335 00:14:11,731 --> 00:14:12,371 [Rush Lindell] Line it up. 336 00:14:12,591 --> 00:14:14,111 [Rush Lindell] Kushner's in a room with Jeffries. 337 00:14:14,211 --> 00:14:15,831 [Rush Lindell] Decision Desk's got their number. 338 00:14:16,172 --> 00:14:19,892 [Rush Lindell] Johnson's on Fox telling Doocy the Republicans hold the House no matter 339 00:14:19,932 --> 00:14:20,511 [Rush Lindell] what. 340 00:14:20,591 --> 00:14:24,812 [Reagan] And weeks before any of that, the Senate itself flinched and unflinched 341 00:14:24,851 --> 00:14:28,591 [Reagan] within 24 hours on the actual war driving the polling. 342 00:14:28,672 --> 00:14:31,731 [Rush Lindell] It's the same White House running two plays at once. 343 00:14:31,751 --> 00:14:34,211 [Rush Lindell] Behind the curtain, they're hedging everywhere. 344 00:14:34,251 --> 00:14:37,211 [Rush Lindell] Kushner's meeting, whatever happened to move those Senate votes. 345 00:14:37,251 --> 00:14:40,432 [Rush Lindell] In front of the camera, it's all, "Absolutely, we're fine. 346 00:14:40,491 --> 00:14:41,831 [Rush Lindell] Don't bet against us." 347 00:14:41,912 --> 00:14:45,371 [Reagan] I'll give Johnson this much: I think he actually believes it. 348 00:14:45,412 --> 00:14:47,172 [Rush Lindell] You think he believes his own applause line? 349 00:14:47,672 --> 00:14:50,451 [Reagan] I think a lot of these guys talk themselves into the number 350 00:14:50,491 --> 00:14:51,511 [Reagan] they need to be true. 351 00:14:51,912 --> 00:14:55,211 [Reagan] But believing something and getting ready for the other outcome are two 352 00:14:55,231 --> 00:14:56,351 [Reagan] different muscles. 353 00:14:56,371 --> 00:14:58,980 [Rush Lindell] And Kushner's the guy exercising the second. 354 00:14:59,312 --> 00:15:02,711 [Reagan] Kushner's not in that room with Jeffries because he's an optimist. 355 00:15:02,792 --> 00:15:05,322 [Reagan] You meet with the other side's leadership when you think you might 356 00:15:05,371 --> 00:15:07,860 [Reagan] need them, not when you're already counting your majority. 357 00:15:08,351 --> 00:15:10,292 [Rush Lindell] It's the whole story tonight. 358 00:15:10,351 --> 00:15:13,741 [Rush Lindell] Confidence on the mic, insurance in the room next door, and a 359 00:15:13,851 --> 00:15:17,351 [Rush Lindell] speaker who'd rather not talk about which one he's actually banking on. 360 00:15:17,731 --> 00:15:21,001 [Reagan] Whether that insurance ever gets cashed, we find out in November. 361 00:15:21,471 --> 00:15:24,251 [Rush Lindell] We've got final thoughts on all of this right after the break. 362 00:15:29,871 --> 00:15:31,412 [Rush Lindell] So here's where we land, Reagan. 363 00:15:31,831 --> 00:15:34,011 [Rush Lindell] Kushner shaking hands with Jeffries. 364 00:15:34,292 --> 00:15:38,231 [Rush Lindell] The Senate flips its own vote in a single day, and Johnson's 365 00:15:38,331 --> 00:15:42,581 [Rush Lindell] out there telling Doocy "Absolutely" like he's got a signed contract from 366 00:15:42,611 --> 00:15:43,011 [Rush Lindell] God. 367 00:15:43,552 --> 00:15:45,032 [Reagan] Nobody has that contract. 368 00:15:45,501 --> 00:15:47,152 [Rush Lindell] Nobody has that contract. 369 00:15:47,231 --> 00:15:51,072 [Rush Lindell] Everybody in this town is quietly building a second option while they 370 00:15:51,131 --> 00:15:53,511 [Rush Lindell] smile for the first camera they see. 371 00:15:53,591 --> 00:15:54,601 [Reagan] I'll say this plainly. 372 00:15:55,052 --> 00:15:56,572 [Reagan] I don't think Johnson's lying. 373 00:15:56,951 --> 00:15:59,851 [Reagan] I think he's hoping out loud, the way anybody does when the 374 00:15:59,932 --> 00:16:02,631 [Reagan] alternative is too uncomfortable to say on camera. 375 00:16:03,172 --> 00:16:06,841 [Reagan] Whether that's the same as knowing, listeners can decide for themselves. 376 00:16:07,912 --> 00:16:09,611 [Rush Lindell] Look at her, leaving the jury out. 377 00:16:10,192 --> 00:16:10,792 [Reagan] That's the job. 378 00:16:11,251 --> 00:16:12,011 [Rush Lindell] Fair enough. 379 00:16:12,131 --> 00:16:13,682 [Rush Lindell] All right, that's the show. 380 00:16:13,711 --> 00:16:17,312 [Rush Lindell] If you liked it, hated it, wanted to yell at me, subscribe, 381 00:16:17,451 --> 00:16:21,672 [Rush Lindell] leave us five stars, and tell one friend who still thinks politics 382 00:16:21,711 --> 00:16:22,292 [Rush Lindell] is boring. 383 00:16:22,792 --> 00:16:23,392 [Reagan] One friend. 384 00:16:23,631 --> 00:16:24,331 [Reagan] That's the ask. 385 00:16:24,751 --> 00:16:28,802 [Rush Lindell] Tomorrow, we're back on this, because if Kushner's making more calls, we're 386 00:16:28,812 --> 00:16:30,751 [Rush Lindell] gonna know about it before Johnson does. 387 00:16:31,272 --> 00:16:32,101 [Reagan] See you then. 388 00:16:32,152 --> 00:16:33,652 [Rush Lindell] Don't bet against us.