1 00:00:15,210 --> 00:00:16,760 [Rush Lindell] You know what nobody wants to say: 2 00:00:17,060 --> 00:00:20,810 [Rush Lindell] the Senate map just quietly shifted under the Republican Party's feet, 3 00:00:21,010 --> 00:00:23,160 [Rush Lindell] and most of Washington hasn't caught up yet. 4 00:00:23,510 --> 00:00:28,460 [Reagan] The Cook Political Report moved four ratings on June eleventh-all four in Democrats' 5 00:00:28,560 --> 00:00:28,810 [Reagan] favor. 6 00:00:29,109 --> 00:00:30,660 [Reagan] That's not noise; that's a trend. 7 00:00:31,210 --> 00:00:31,960 [Rush Lindell] Alaska, 8 00:00:32,160 --> 00:00:32,710 [Rush Lindell] Ohio, 9 00:00:33,060 --> 00:00:33,960 [Rush Lindell] North Carolina, 10 00:00:34,310 --> 00:00:39,160 [Rush Lindell] Iowa-Republicans are defending twenty three of the thirty five seats up this cycle, 11 00:00:39,460 --> 00:00:41,160 [Rush Lindell] and they need Democrats to need f 12 00:00:41,160 --> 00:00:41,610 [Speaker 3] - 13 00:00:40,979 --> 00:00:42,879 [Rush Lindell] Need four seats-that's the math, 14 00:00:43,079 --> 00:00:45,279 [Rush Lindell] and the math is not being corroborative. 15 00:00:45,629 --> 00:00:54,379 [Reagan] Iowa shifted on June second; our plus thirteen State; no incumbent; Cook dropped it from likely to lean Republican; that should not be happening. 16 00:00:54,780 --> 00:00:55,780 [Rush Lindell] Should not, 17 00:00:55,879 --> 00:00:56,780 [Rush Lindell] but here we are. 18 00:00:57,129 --> 00:00:59,230 [Reagan] And then you've got Maine-Susan Collins, 19 00:00:59,230 --> 00:00:59,530 [Rush Lindell] Wow. 20 00:00:59,530 --> 00:01:01,579 [Reagan] a nine point deficit in one poll, 21 00:01:01,930 --> 00:01:03,880 [Reagan] the money pouring in from both sides. 22 00:01:04,280 --> 00:01:07,680 [Rush Lindell] Nine points in Maine—Susan Collins, 23 00:01:07,829 --> 00:01:08,629 [Rush Lindell] who has survived every election since. 24 00:01:08,500 --> 00:01:09,299 [Rush Lindell] I've got everything! 25 00:01:09,700 --> 00:01:13,099 [Rush Lindell] That race may end up being the one that decides who controls the chamber. 26 00:01:13,500 --> 00:01:14,950 [Reagan] It's a competitive map now, 27 00:01:15,049 --> 00:01:17,900 [Reagan] and that matters regardless of where you come down on the candidates. 28 00:01:18,450 --> 00:01:21,099 [Rush Lindell] Reagan's job is to keep me from oversimplifying. 29 00:01:21,349 --> 00:01:23,849 [Rush Lindell] Mine is to keep this from becoming a policy seminar. 30 00:01:24,400 --> 00:01:25,549 [Reagan] We've got a good balance today. 31 00:01:26,000 --> 00:01:28,000 [Rush Lindell] We're going to walk through the toss-up states, 32 00:01:28,250 --> 00:01:31,099 [Rush Lindell] the North Carolina problem the Republicans made themselves, 33 00:01:31,500 --> 00:01:32,650 [Rush Lindell] the Maine money race, 34 00:01:32,950 --> 00:01:34,500 [Rush Lindell] and then zoom out on what the full map means. 35 00:01:34,260 --> 00:01:40,609 [Rush Lindell] But the full map actually means—because the meta story here is the one the Republican Party should be losing sleep over. 36 00:01:40,910 --> 00:01:42,860 [Reagan] The Senate overview is where we start. 37 00:01:43,260 --> 00:01:47,160 [Reagan] Let's get that structural picture right before we pull apart individual races. 38 00:01:47,810 --> 00:01:49,510 [Rush Lindell] Fifty-three to forty-seven. 39 00:01:49,760 --> 00:01:50,560 [Rush Lindell] Four seats. 40 00:01:50,810 --> 00:01:52,010 [Rush Lindell] That's the whole equation. 41 00:01:52,360 --> 00:01:54,610 [Rush Lindell] We're going to make it make sense right now. 42 00:01:59,924 --> 00:02:02,024 [Rush Lindell] Before we get started, a quick reminder: 43 00:02:02,274 --> 00:02:06,724 [Rush Lindell] we LOVE hearing from you. If you have questions or topics you'd like us to cover, 44 00:02:06,974 --> 00:02:09,774 [Rush Lindell] head to the link in the description and submit your question. 45 00:02:10,024 --> 00:02:11,873 [Rush Lindell] We read every single one. 46 00:02:17,224 --> 00:02:18,424 [Rush Lindell] Short pause. 47 00:02:18,924 --> 00:02:20,174 [Reagan] Short pause. 48 00:02:20,992 --> 00:02:22,792 [Rush Lindell] Thirty-five seats on the table, 49 00:02:23,042 --> 00:02:25,492 [Rush Lindell] Republicans defending twenty-two of them, 50 00:02:25,742 --> 00:02:27,442 [Rush Lindell] and the map just moved, 51 00:02:27,742 --> 00:02:29,092 [Rush Lindell] fast and quiet. 52 00:02:29,891 --> 00:02:38,842 [Rush Lindell] Cook Political Report dropped two ratings changes on June eleventh; Alaska and Ohio both flipped from Lean Republican to Toss-Up. 53 00:02:39,442 --> 00:02:40,092 [Rush Lindell] Same day, 54 00:02:40,342 --> 00:02:42,391 [Rush Lindell] North Carolina moved the other direction, 55 00:02:42,742 --> 00:02:44,292 [Rush Lindell] Toss-Up to Lean Democrat. 56 00:02:45,192 --> 00:02:48,792 [Reagan] So three states in one day—that's not a ripple, rush, 57 00:02:48,891 --> 00:02:49,692 [Reagan] that's a wave. 58 00:02:50,099 --> 00:02:53,099 [Rush Lindell] And you know what most of conservative media is doing with this? 59 00:02:53,099 --> 00:02:53,449 [Reagan] Hmm. 60 00:02:53,449 --> 00:02:55,400 [Rush Lindell] Sitting on it. Quietly. 61 00:02:55,900 --> 00:02:59,599 [Rush Lindell] Nobody wants to say the map is in trouble when there's five months to go. 62 00:03:00,020 --> 00:03:02,670 [Reagan] The math is worth actually laying out. 63 00:03:03,020 --> 00:03:05,670 [Reagan] Democrats currently hold forty seven seats. 64 00:03:05,870 --> 00:03:08,719 [Reagan] They need a net gain of four to take the majority. 65 00:03:09,270 --> 00:03:13,070 [Reagan] Republicans are defending twenty two of those thirty five seats up. 66 00:03:13,370 --> 00:03:15,020 [Reagan] That's the structural disadvantage. 67 00:03:15,770 --> 00:03:16,870 [Rush Lindell] And the thing is, 68 00:03:17,070 --> 00:03:22,870 [Rush Lindell] NPR ran a piece back in May flagging that the national environment is a difficult one for Republicans. 69 00:03:23,520 --> 00:03:25,220 [Rush Lindell] Trump's approval numbers are down, 70 00:03:25,570 --> 00:03:27,070 [Rush Lindell] the economy's still soft. 71 00:03:26,963 --> 00:03:27,313 [Rush Lindell] often, 72 00:03:27,364 --> 00:03:31,713 [Rush Lindell] and that head wind is nationalized; it hits every Republican on the map. 73 00:03:32,364 --> 00:03:34,514 [Reagan] Now here's where I push back slightly: 74 00:03:34,913 --> 00:03:40,264 [Reagan] a bad environment for the president's party in June doesn't automatically translate to seats flipping. 75 00:03:40,713 --> 00:03:42,514 [Reagan] These ratings are snapshots, 76 00:03:42,813 --> 00:03:44,264 [Reagan] June 11th snapshots. 77 00:03:44,883 --> 00:03:45,433 [Speaker 4] Fair, 78 00:03:45,633 --> 00:03:49,183 [Speaker 4] but you don't get three Cook changes in a single day unless 79 00:03:49,183 --> 00:03:49,283 [Reagan] one. 80 00:03:49,283 --> 00:03:50,683 [Speaker 4] something real shifted. 81 00:03:51,133 --> 00:03:53,233 [Speaker 4] That's not a forecaster being cautious, 82 00:03:53,683 --> 00:03:59,033 [Speaker 4] that's a forecaster saying we can no longer call this Lean Republican with a straight face. 83 00:03:59,733 --> 00:04:03,183 [Reagan] Agreed, and the money is confirming it; Maine alone, 84 00:04:03,433 --> 00:04:10,983 [Reagan] ad impact tracked over fifty-three million dollars in primary ad spending; the general election is already tracking toward a record. 85 00:04:11,808 --> 00:04:16,658 [Speaker 4] Fifty-three million in the primary for a state with a million and a half people. 86 00:04:17,208 --> 00:04:18,408 [Speaker 4] Someone is very, 87 00:04:18,507 --> 00:04:19,307 [Speaker 4] very nervous. 88 00:04:20,158 --> 00:04:22,008 [Reagan] Two of them moved the same day, 89 00:04:22,307 --> 00:04:23,307 [Reagan] same forecaster, 90 00:04:23,557 --> 00:04:24,358 [Reagan] same direction. 91 00:04:24,557 --> 00:04:28,908 [Reagan] What do Alaska and Ohio actually have in common that got them here? 92 00:04:34,424 --> 00:04:36,374 [Speaker 4] So Ohio and Alaska, 93 00:04:36,774 --> 00:04:38,223 [Speaker 4] two Republican incumbents, 94 00:04:38,524 --> 00:04:41,223 [Speaker 4] two states Trump carried by double digits, 95 00:04:41,674 --> 00:04:43,574 [Speaker 4] now in toss-up territory. 96 00:04:44,223 --> 00:04:44,774 [Speaker 4] Deadpan: 97 00:04:45,024 --> 00:04:48,824 [Speaker 4] Welcome to the You Voted Wrong Once penalty. 98 00:04:49,473 --> 00:04:51,074 [Reagan] Rush Limbaugh or second, 99 00:04:51,574 --> 00:04:53,074 [Reagan] Husted in Ohio was appointed, 100 00:04:53,274 --> 00:04:53,824 [Reagan] not elected. 101 00:04:54,223 --> 00:04:57,074 [Reagan] He's never run statewide on his own; that's not nothing. 102 00:04:57,723 --> 00:04:59,274 [Speaker 4] That's actually worse! 103 00:04:59,624 --> 00:05:02,824 [Speaker 4] The guy hasn't proven he can win and the 104 00:05:02,644 --> 00:05:08,644 [Speaker 4] And the Democrats brought back Sherrod Brown—you know what I call that?—The Zombie Comeback Tour. 105 00:05:09,144 --> 00:05:12,793 [Reagan] Look—Brown lost by under four points in nineteen twenty-four, 106 00:05:12,894 --> 00:05:14,744 [Reagan] while Trump winning Ohio by eleven. 107 00:05:15,093 --> 00:05:16,043 [Reagan] That margin matters. 108 00:05:16,593 --> 00:05:17,843 [Speaker 4] Exactly right! 109 00:05:18,093 --> 00:05:22,944 [Speaker 4] and Alaska—Trump won by thirteen points Dan Sullivan's in there 110 00:05:22,944 --> 00:05:23,043 [Reagan] Yeah. 111 00:05:23,043 --> 00:05:24,494 [Speaker 4] and Mary Peltola, 112 00:05:24,694 --> 00:05:27,093 [Speaker 4] who lost her House seat in twenty twenty-four, 113 00:05:27,244 --> 00:05:29,093 [Speaker 4] is now polling ahead of him. 114 00:05:29,650 --> 00:05:31,600 [Reagan] Peltola lost around two points in Alaska, 115 00:05:31,900 --> 00:05:34,050 [Reagan] even in a bad year for Democrats nationally, 116 00:05:34,250 --> 00:05:36,400 [Reagan] so she's not a long shot by any measure. 117 00:05:36,949 --> 00:05:37,400 [Speaker 4] Right, 118 00:05:37,500 --> 00:05:37,800 [Speaker 4] right. 119 00:05:38,000 --> 00:05:43,300 [Speaker 4] So we've got two senators defending states that Trump absolutely won big, 120 00:05:43,500 --> 00:05:44,900 [Speaker 4] and they're in a coin flip. 121 00:05:45,400 --> 00:05:47,150 [Speaker 4] Sullivan's just sort of hanging on, 122 00:05:47,199 --> 00:05:48,600 [Speaker 4] hoping nobody shows up. 123 00:05:48,900 --> 00:05:49,250 [Reagan] Hmm, 124 00:05:49,400 --> 00:05:50,600 [Reagan] I'd pump the brakes a little. 125 00:05:51,000 --> 00:05:54,800 [Reagan] Alaska survey research has Peltola up five points in recent polling. 126 00:05:54,949 --> 00:05:55,550 [Reagan] That's real. 127 00:05:55,827 --> 00:05:58,727 [Reagan] But Sullivan hasn't cracked forty four per cent support. 128 00:05:59,277 --> 00:06:00,627 [Reagan] That's the actual alarm bell, 129 00:06:00,727 --> 00:06:02,027 [Reagan] not just the forecaster label. 130 00:06:02,527 --> 00:06:04,827 [Speaker 4] And the Ohio special election wrinkle: 131 00:06:05,277 --> 00:06:07,527 [Speaker 4] JD Vance leaves for the vice presidency, 132 00:06:07,527 --> 00:06:07,777 [Speaker 5] Great. 133 00:06:08,077 --> 00:06:09,227 [Speaker 4] Husted gets appointed, 134 00:06:09,627 --> 00:06:13,777 [Speaker 4] now he's defending a seat he never actually won-two races in one, 135 00:06:13,877 --> 00:06:14,277 [Speaker 4] basically. 136 00:06:14,677 --> 00:06:15,277 [Reagan] That said, 137 00:06:15,527 --> 00:06:18,877 [Reagan] the national environment is doing more damage here than any single vote. 138 00:06:19,327 --> 00:06:21,527 [Reagan] These aren't ideologically weak incumbents. 139 00:06:21,577 --> 00:06:22,827 [Reagan] They're incumbents caught in 140 00:06:22,827 --> 00:06:22,977 [Speaker 3] a tidal wave. 141 00:06:22,548 --> 00:06:23,497 [Reagan] caught in a headwind. 142 00:06:23,898 --> 00:06:27,848 [Speaker 4] Which is what makes North Carolina so different no incumbent, 143 00:06:28,247 --> 00:06:29,747 [Speaker 4] just a wide-open seat, 144 00:06:29,947 --> 00:06:33,298 [Speaker 4] and the candidate quality gap is doing all the damage by itself. 145 00:06:33,898 --> 00:06:37,348 [Reagan] And that's the race where the numbers have gotten genuinely lopsided. 146 00:06:42,771 --> 00:06:44,572 [Speaker 4] Now flip that on its head: 147 00:06:44,971 --> 00:06:49,921 [Speaker 4] Ohio and Alaska competitive because Republicans got caught flat footed, 148 00:06:50,322 --> 00:06:51,721 [Speaker 4] North Carolina's different, 149 00:06:52,122 --> 00:06:56,872 [Speaker 4] this one's a candidate quality problem and the GOP put it there themselves. 150 00:06:57,471 --> 00:06:59,021 [Reagan] NPR had a piece on this. 151 00:06:59,221 --> 00:06:59,971 [Reagan] Thom Tillis? 152 00:07:00,101 --> 00:07:02,601 [Rush Lindell] He voted against the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, 153 00:07:03,001 --> 00:07:06,201 [Rush Lindell] and the next day he announced he wasn't running for reelection. 154 00:07:06,751 --> 00:07:07,401 [Rush Lindell] Open seat, 155 00:07:07,701 --> 00:07:11,201 [Rush Lindell] no incumbent advantage- that's a gift Republicans handed Democrats. 156 00:07:11,801 --> 00:07:13,851 [Reagan] And then what does the party do with that gift? 157 00:07:14,101 --> 00:07:16,801 [Reagan] They hand the nomination to Michael Whatley, 158 00:07:17,201 --> 00:07:17,851 [Reagan] deadpan, 159 00:07:18,151 --> 00:07:19,251 [Reagan] the invisible man, 160 00:07:19,651 --> 00:07:21,201 [Reagan] former RNC chair, 161 00:07:21,601 --> 00:07:23,701 [Reagan] never run for office a day in his life. 162 00:07:24,051 --> 00:07:25,001 [Reagan] Trump endorsed him, 163 00:07:25,251 --> 00:07:27,201 [Reagan] he won the primary with sixty four 164 00:07:27,201 --> 00:07:27,701 [Speaker 3] per cent. 165 00:07:27,033 --> 00:07:28,433 [Reagan] Four point six per cent. 166 00:07:28,733 --> 00:07:29,183 [Reagan] Done. 167 00:07:29,583 --> 00:07:30,083 [Rush Lindell] Rush, 168 00:07:30,233 --> 00:07:40,533 [Rush Lindell] Whatley's not a bad candidate because of MAGA loyalty; he's underperforming because Cooper is genuinely exceptional statewide-six wins as governor and attorney general, 169 00:07:40,933 --> 00:07:43,583 [Rush Lindell] five of them in years Trump carried North Carolina. 170 00:07:44,033 --> 00:07:48,033 [Rush Lindell] That's not environment; that's a specific person voters already trust. 171 00:07:48,483 --> 00:07:50,883 [Reagan] No, I take both; Cooper strong, 172 00:07:51,183 --> 00:07:53,483 [Reagan] and the Republican party chose a guy- 173 00:07:53,273 --> 00:08:02,973 [Reagan] Over half of North Carolina has never heard of-the Carolina Journal poll has fifty two per cent of voters never heard of Whatley or no opinion, 174 00:08:03,373 --> 00:08:04,573 [Reagan] fifty two per cent! 175 00:08:04,973 --> 00:08:07,023 [Reagan] Cooper is sitting at eleven points up. 176 00:08:07,373 --> 00:08:09,873 [Rush Lindell] That name recognition gap is the real story: 177 00:08:10,223 --> 00:08:19,573 [Rush Lindell] Cooper's favorability is nearly 50%. Whatley's favorable rating, 25%. And that's with virtually zero general election advertising aired yet. 178 00:08:19,321 --> 00:08:19,671 [Rush Lindell] ...scared yet? 179 00:08:19,921 --> 00:08:25,871 [Reagan] But don't worry; a Republican super PAC committed seventy one million dollars to close that gap, 180 00:08:26,121 --> 00:08:26,771 [Reagan] so there's that. 181 00:08:27,271 --> 00:08:27,971 [Rush Lindell] Dryly, 182 00:08:28,121 --> 00:08:31,571 [Rush Lindell] seventy-one million to introduce a candidate who ran the RNC, 183 00:08:31,721 --> 00:08:35,421 [Rush Lindell] but couldn't introduce himself to his own state-that's the assignment. 184 00:08:36,021 --> 00:08:42,071 [Reagan] Sabato's Crystal Ball moved North Carolina from Toss-Up to Lean Democratic in June. 185 00:08:42,521 --> 00:08:44,221 [Reagan] Cook had already done it back in April. 186 00:08:44,621 --> 00:08:47,771 [Reagan] Both forecasters now call this a Democratic Lean. 187 00:08:47,869 --> 00:08:52,769 [Reagan] And you know what nobody wants to say-on a map where Democrats need four seats, 188 00:08:53,069 --> 00:08:55,119 [Reagan] this one might already be in the bag. 189 00:08:55,519 --> 00:08:56,919 [Rush Lindell] I'd pump the brakes slightly: 190 00:08:57,469 --> 00:09:03,119 [Rush Lindell] Democrats haven't won a Senate race here since two thousand eight-the structural lean in presidential years is real. 191 00:09:03,569 --> 00:09:06,369 [Rush Lindell] But if the environment holds and Cooper stays disciplined, 192 00:09:06,919 --> 00:09:07,069 [Rush Lindell] yeah, 193 00:09:07,169 --> 00:09:09,569 [Rush Lindell] this is their best shot on the entire map. 194 00:09:09,919 --> 00:09:14,169 [Reagan] Which makes what's coming next almost absurd by comparison-Iowa. 195 00:09:14,105 --> 00:09:16,705 [Reagan] Our R-plus-13 territory. 196 00:09:17,255 --> 00:09:19,855 [Reagan] Democrats have no business being competitive there, 197 00:09:20,155 --> 00:09:20,755 [Reagan] and yet- 198 00:09:20,955 --> 00:09:22,355 [Rush Lindell] And yet here we are. 199 00:09:27,673 --> 00:09:32,523 [Reagan] Now, from North Carolina to somewhere nobody on the right saw coming, 200 00:09:32,923 --> 00:09:33,373 [Reagan] Iowa, 201 00:09:33,923 --> 00:09:35,423 [Reagan] R-plus-13, 202 00:09:35,773 --> 00:09:38,173 [Reagan] Trump won it by 13 points in 2024. 203 00:09:38,873 --> 00:09:42,323 [Rush Lindell] And Democrats haven't won in Iowa Senate seats since 2008. 204 00:09:42,923 --> 00:09:53,323 [Reagan] Right. So explain to me how Cook Political just dropped Iowa from Likely Republican to Lean Republican on June 2nd. Somebody's going to have to answer for that. 205 00:09:53,689 --> 00:09:55,639 [Rush Lindell] Look, it's a combination of things. 206 00:09:55,889 --> 00:09:57,039 [Rush Lindell] Joni Ernst is retiring, 207 00:09:57,439 --> 00:09:58,039 [Rush Lindell] no incumbent, 208 00:09:58,339 --> 00:09:58,889 [Rush Lindell] open seat, 209 00:09:59,289 --> 00:10:00,839 [Rush Lindell] the governor's race is open too, 210 00:10:01,089 --> 00:10:05,989 [Rush Lindell] and the national headwinds on tariffs and the Iran conflict are hitting Iowa farmers directly. 211 00:10:06,489 --> 00:10:07,689 [Reagan] Iowa farmers, 212 00:10:07,889 --> 00:10:10,889 [Reagan] the people Republicans literally need most, 213 00:10:11,289 --> 00:10:15,739 [Reagan] Hinson herself was caught on tape in May saying the Iran war would be a, 214 00:10:15,839 --> 00:10:16,039 [Reagan] quote, 215 00:10:16,339 --> 00:10:19,039 [Reagan] political liability if it dragged on. 216 00:10:19,089 --> 00:10:20,489 [Reagan] That's your own candidate. 217 00:10:20,889 --> 00:10:23,939 [Rush Lindell] She won the primary with seventy-four percent of the vote. 218 00:10:24,339 --> 00:10:25,139 [Rush Lindell] Trump's endorsement? 219 00:10:25,389 --> 00:10:26,089 [Rush Lindell] Strong fundraising. 220 00:10:26,389 --> 00:10:26,989 [Rush Lindell] On paper, 221 00:10:27,189 --> 00:10:27,639 [Rush Lindell] she solid. 222 00:10:28,189 --> 00:10:29,039 [Reagan] On paper, 223 00:10:29,489 --> 00:10:39,339 [Reagan] Josh Turek won the Democratic primary with sixty three percent and the Senate Leadership Fund immediately announced twenty nine million dollars in ad reservations. 224 00:10:39,689 --> 00:10:42,039 [Reagan] Twenty nine million in Iowa. 225 00:10:42,639 --> 00:10:44,189 [Rush Lindell] That number tells you everything. 226 00:10:44,539 --> 00:10:45,789 [Rush Lindell] If Republicans were comfortable, 227 00:10:46,039 --> 00:10:48,039 [Rush Lindell] they don't spend twenty nine million dollars. 228 00:10:47,961 --> 00:10:49,861 [Rush Lindell] in a state they're supposed to own. 229 00:10:50,261 --> 00:10:53,511 [Reagan] Someone in a very expensive office panicked. 230 00:10:53,911 --> 00:10:59,761 [Rush Lindell] What makes it structurally interesting-and this is the part forecasters are flagging-is the resource competition. 231 00:11:00,261 --> 00:11:01,311 [Rush Lindell] Governor's race is open, 232 00:11:01,611 --> 00:11:03,311 [Rush Lindell] multiple competitive House seats, 233 00:11:03,761 --> 00:11:08,211 [Rush Lindell] Iowa's Republican ground operation is being pulled in four directions at once. 234 00:11:08,611 --> 00:11:11,011 [Reagan] And you know what nobody wants to say: 235 00:11:11,361 --> 00:11:14,261 [Reagan] the people who spent six months calling Iowa a f***ing 236 00:11:14,261 --> 00:11:14,611 [Speaker 3] state are the ones who are going to be the most disappointed. 237 00:11:14,009 --> 00:11:18,809 [Reagan] A three-win are now dropping twenty nine million dollars not to lose it. 238 00:11:18,809 --> 00:11:19,059 [Rush Lindell] Right. 239 00:11:19,059 --> 00:11:20,409 [Reagan] That's not confidence. 240 00:11:21,177 --> 00:11:22,427 [Rush Lindell] Still leans Republican. 241 00:11:22,877 --> 00:11:24,327 [Rush Lindell] R-plus-13 is real, 242 00:11:24,527 --> 00:11:28,877 [Rush Lindell] but the gap is narrowing in a state the GOP cannot afford to play defense in. 243 00:11:29,177 --> 00:11:29,827 [Reagan] All right. 244 00:11:30,127 --> 00:11:32,877 [Reagan] Iowa is the canary. If it gets tight, 245 00:11:33,177 --> 00:11:35,677 [Reagan] the map gets uncomfortable very fast. 246 00:11:35,877 --> 00:11:37,427 [Reagan] But if you want uncomfortable, 247 00:11:37,877 --> 00:11:40,727 [Reagan] Maine is where this whole story comes to a head. 248 00:11:41,127 --> 00:11:45,377 [Reagan] Susan Collins and a candidate Democrats did not expect to have. 249 00:11:50,905 --> 00:11:52,455 [Speaker 4] From Iowa to Maine, 250 00:11:52,755 --> 00:11:55,455 [Speaker 4] and Maine is the marquee; Galen Platner, 251 00:11:55,805 --> 00:11:56,805 [Speaker 4] forty-one years old, 252 00:11:57,105 --> 00:11:57,905 [Speaker 4] oyster farmer, 253 00:11:58,255 --> 00:11:59,055 [Speaker 4] combat vet, 254 00:11:59,405 --> 00:12:06,005 [Speaker 4] won the Democratic primary June ninth with seventy-two percent of the vote after Governor Mills suspended her campaign in April. 255 00:12:06,005 --> 00:12:06,555 [Rush Lindell] Wow! 256 00:12:06,555 --> 00:12:07,155 [Speaker 4] On paper, 257 00:12:07,555 --> 00:12:09,405 [Speaker 4] this guy is built for this moment. 258 00:12:09,805 --> 00:12:10,555 [Rush Lindell] On paper, 259 00:12:11,005 --> 00:12:18,205 [Rush Lindell] the NRSC put out a memo warning it would be a-and I'm paraphrasing-a fatal mistake to assume Platner is 260 00:12:18,137 --> 00:12:19,637 [Rush Lindell] is too damaged to win" 261 00:12:19,937 --> 00:12:23,487 [Rush Lindell] That's a warning from the Republican side about their own vulnerability. 262 00:12:24,087 --> 00:12:25,237 [Speaker 4] Which tells you everything. 263 00:12:25,587 --> 00:12:27,687 [Speaker 4] You don't write that memo if you feel good. 264 00:12:27,987 --> 00:12:29,187 [Speaker 4] But let me tell you something: 265 00:12:29,587 --> 00:12:36,737 [Speaker 4] I am looking at this guy's file and asking myself how Democrats stare at a tattoo that resembles a Nazi SS symbol, 266 00:12:37,237 --> 00:12:39,487 [Speaker 4] Reddit posts mocking a wounded soldier, 267 00:12:40,037 --> 00:12:43,087 [Speaker 4] explicit texts his own wife flagged to the campaign, 268 00:12:43,437 --> 00:12:43,787 [Speaker 4] and say, 269 00:12:43,897 --> 00:12:44,397 [Speaker 4] Yeah, 270 00:12:44,647 --> 00:12:45,397 [Speaker 4] that's our firewall. 271 00:12:45,797 --> 00:12:46,297 [Rush Lindell] Rush, 272 00:12:46,497 --> 00:12:49,547 [Rush Lindell] the polling doesn't care about your discomfort or mine. 273 00:12:50,047 --> 00:12:56,547 [Rush Lindell] UMass Lowell had Plattner up five points over Collins as of June 4th. The Hill survey had him up nine. 274 00:12:57,047 --> 00:13:01,147 [Rush Lindell] Collins's favorable rating is sitting at negative nine in the most recent data. 275 00:13:01,397 --> 00:13:05,497 [Speaker 4] She's been at negative nine before and won by nine points in 2020. 276 00:13:06,097 --> 00:13:07,047 [Rush Lindell] Absolutely right. 277 00:13:07,297 --> 00:13:08,897 [Rush Lindell] Maine voters split tickets. 278 00:13:08,997 --> 00:13:11,147 [Rush Lindell] They did it for Collins in 2020 when Biden 279 00:13:10,937 --> 00:13:12,287 [Rush Lindell] When Biden carried the state, 280 00:13:12,587 --> 00:13:17,187 [Rush Lindell] the structural environment in 2026 is worse for Republicans than it was then. 281 00:13:17,487 --> 00:13:17,737 [Speaker 4] Wait, 282 00:13:17,787 --> 00:13:20,087 [Speaker 4] wait, wait. How much money are we talking in this race? 283 00:13:20,387 --> 00:13:21,587 [Rush Lindell] Outside groups alone, 284 00:13:22,037 --> 00:13:23,437 [Rush Lindell] according to AdImpact, 285 00:13:23,687 --> 00:13:28,337 [Rush Lindell] Republicans have reserved roughly $99 million in advertising for Collins, 286 00:13:28,887 --> 00:13:31,337 [Rush Lindell] Democrats about $44 million on the other side. 287 00:13:31,737 --> 00:13:36,487 [Speaker 4] Ninety nine million dollars to defend a seat they've held for 30 years? 288 00:13:36,857 --> 00:13:38,307 [Speaker 4] That is not confidence, 289 00:13:38,607 --> 00:13:39,907 [Speaker 4] that is controlled panic. 290 00:13:40,357 --> 00:13:46,307 [Rush Lindell] And Platner outraised Collins directly sixteen point three million to her fifteen point one million, 291 00:13:46,457 --> 00:13:48,307 [Rush Lindell] so he's not short on fuel either. 292 00:13:48,807 --> 00:13:50,807 [Rush Lindell] The Bangor Daily News reported that figure. 293 00:13:51,557 --> 00:13:55,957 [Speaker 4] The controversy candidate is outraising a five term incumbent. 294 00:13:56,557 --> 00:13:58,207 [Speaker 4] You know what nobody wants to say? 295 00:13:58,607 --> 00:13:59,957 [Speaker 4] This race is genuinely 296 00:13:59,957 --> 00:14:01,057 [Speaker 3] up for grabs. 297 00:14:00,202 --> 00:14:01,002 [Rush Lindell] Up for grabs, 298 00:14:01,102 --> 00:14:03,552 [Rush Lindell] and everything we've seen today-Ohio, 299 00:14:03,652 --> 00:14:04,352 [Rush Lindell] Alaska, 300 00:14:04,652 --> 00:14:05,502 [Rush Lindell] North Carolina, 301 00:14:05,802 --> 00:14:06,102 [Rush Lindell] Iowa, 302 00:14:06,352 --> 00:14:08,352 [Rush Lindell] now Maine—it's not isolated. 303 00:14:08,502 --> 00:14:09,252 [Rush Lindell] It's a pattern. 304 00:14:09,452 --> 00:14:11,252 [Reagan] Which raises the bigger question, 305 00:14:11,552 --> 00:14:14,802 [Reagan] is this pattern showing up across all the forecasting models, 306 00:14:14,952 --> 00:14:16,652 [Reagan] or is Maine a one-off? 307 00:14:16,752 --> 00:14:19,252 [Reagan] The prediction markets have something to say about that. 308 00:14:24,446 --> 00:14:28,246 [Rush Lindell] So let's step back. Forget the individual races for a second. 309 00:14:28,546 --> 00:14:31,496 [Rush Lindell] What's the whole board actually saying right now? 310 00:14:31,846 --> 00:14:34,446 [Reagan] The board is saying Republicans are on defense. 311 00:14:34,896 --> 00:14:38,046 [Reagan] Twenty-three seats up, Democrats only defending thirteen. 312 00:14:38,396 --> 00:14:39,746 [Reagan] That asymmetry matters. 313 00:14:40,446 --> 00:14:42,496 [Rush Lindell] We all know what's really happening here. 314 00:14:42,746 --> 00:14:44,396 [Rush Lindell] The prediction markets aren't lying. 315 00:14:44,896 --> 00:14:49,996 [Rush Lindell] Polymarket is sitting around 43% odds of a Democratic sweep as of today. 316 00:14:50,366 --> 00:14:52,816 [Rush Lindell] That number was a punchline 12 months ago. 317 00:14:53,016 --> 00:14:56,216 [Reagan] And Race to the White House's model moved in the same direction. 318 00:14:56,766 --> 00:14:58,716 [Reagan] After April fundraising data dropped, 319 00:14:58,916 --> 00:15:01,816 [Reagan] Democrats improved their odds specifically in Alaska, 320 00:15:02,116 --> 00:15:02,466 [Reagan] Georgia, 321 00:15:02,666 --> 00:15:03,216 [Reagan] and New Hampshire. 322 00:15:03,716 --> 00:15:04,266 [Reagan] Real money, 323 00:15:04,566 --> 00:15:05,116 [Reagan] real signal. 324 00:15:05,616 --> 00:15:08,466 [Rush Lindell] Republicans gained ground in Florida and Montana, 325 00:15:08,666 --> 00:15:10,066 [Rush Lindell] so it's not all bad news. 326 00:15:10,216 --> 00:15:13,416 [Rush Lindell] But you're playing whack-a-mole with a map that keeps expanding. 327 00:15:13,966 --> 00:15:17,266 [Reagan] The structural piece nobody wants to say out loud. The party... 328 00:15:17,054 --> 00:15:23,854 [Reagan] already out of the White House historically gained Senate seats in midterms, that headwind exists regardless of candidate quality, 329 00:15:24,354 --> 00:15:26,104 [Reagan] regardless of state-by-state ratings. 330 00:15:26,454 --> 00:15:32,454 [Speaker 4] And NPR put it plainly, the national environment is a difficult one for Republicans right now. 331 00:15:32,804 --> 00:15:34,054 [Speaker 4] Approval ratings underwater, 332 00:15:34,704 --> 00:15:36,154 [Speaker 4] economic sentiment negative, 333 00:15:36,654 --> 00:15:39,954 [Speaker 4] that environment seeps into every race on this map. 334 00:15:40,304 --> 00:15:45,054 [Reagan] Which is why the forecasters moved three races simultaneously on June 11th. 335 00:15:44,830 --> 00:15:45,030 [Reagan] seventh, 336 00:15:45,230 --> 00:15:45,880 [Reagan] not one, 337 00:15:46,080 --> 00:15:47,380 [Reagan] three; Alaska, 338 00:15:47,580 --> 00:15:47,980 [Reagan] Ohio, 339 00:15:48,130 --> 00:15:50,030 [Reagan] and North Carolina in the same week. 340 00:15:50,330 --> 00:15:51,680 [Speaker 4] Cook calls it Toss-Up, 341 00:15:51,980 --> 00:15:53,230 [Speaker 4] markets call it competitive. 342 00:15:53,830 --> 00:16:01,130 [Speaker 4] I call it a situation where Republicans need everything to go right and Democrats only need a few things to break their way. 343 00:16:01,530 --> 00:16:03,430 [Reagan] And Democrats still need to sweep. 344 00:16:03,680 --> 00:16:07,780 [Reagan] Cook's consensus notes said they'd have to win all the toss ups to get the majority. 345 00:16:08,280 --> 00:16:10,380 [Reagan] Republicans remain the overall favorite, 346 00:16:10,680 --> 00:16:10,880 [Reagan] barely. 347 00:16:11,326 --> 00:16:13,026 [Speaker 4] Barely, that's the word. 348 00:16:13,276 --> 00:16:15,626 [Speaker 4] This was supposed to be a comfortable hold, 349 00:16:15,926 --> 00:16:17,976 [Speaker 4] the map does not look comfortable, 350 00:16:18,276 --> 00:16:23,126 [Speaker 4] and that frankly is the whole story of the last six months on the Republican side. 351 00:16:28,606 --> 00:16:34,006 [Speaker 4] So, with all that in mind, what do Republicans actually have to do between now and November? 352 00:16:34,456 --> 00:16:35,606 [Reagan] candidate performance, 353 00:16:36,006 --> 00:16:36,556 [Reagan] full stop. 354 00:16:36,856 --> 00:16:38,706 [Reagan] The environment is genuinely difficult, 355 00:16:38,806 --> 00:16:39,056 [Reagan] Rush. 356 00:16:39,406 --> 00:16:40,356 [Reagan] NPR reported it. 357 00:16:40,656 --> 00:16:42,256 [Reagan] Trump's approval has been underwater, 358 00:16:42,756 --> 00:16:44,456 [Reagan] Democrats have the enthusiasm edge, 359 00:16:44,556 --> 00:16:45,756 [Reagan] those are facts. 360 00:16:46,056 --> 00:16:50,156 [Reagan] But the one variable Republicans can control is how their nominees run. 361 00:16:50,506 --> 00:16:54,656 [Speaker 4] And that is exactly the problem in several of these states, isn't it? 362 00:16:54,622 --> 00:16:59,272 [Speaker 4] You've got nominees who are running behind where a generic Republican would land. 363 00:16:59,472 --> 00:17:01,472 [Speaker 4] That's not the environment doing that. 364 00:17:01,572 --> 00:17:02,972 [Speaker 4] That's candidate quality. 365 00:17:03,272 --> 00:17:06,172 [Reagan] Right. And you can't fix a bad nominee in October. 366 00:17:06,722 --> 00:17:07,822 [Speaker 4] Now, Collins, 367 00:17:07,972 --> 00:17:09,572 [Speaker 4] I want to address this directly. 368 00:17:10,022 --> 00:17:10,422 [Speaker 4] Yes, 369 00:17:10,672 --> 00:17:14,172 [Speaker 4] Morning Consult has her net favorability at negative 9. 370 00:17:14,572 --> 00:17:14,972 [Speaker 4] Yes, 371 00:17:15,322 --> 00:17:17,672 [Speaker 4] independents in Maine are not happy with her. 372 00:17:17,822 --> 00:17:19,222 [Speaker 4] But you know what else is true? 373 00:17:19,422 --> 00:17:20,822 [Speaker 4] She outran Trump. 374 00:17:20,734 --> 00:17:25,484 [Speaker 4] Trump by nearly seven points in 2020 when everybody said she was cooked. 375 00:17:25,634 --> 00:17:27,534 [Speaker 4] Every poll had Gideon winning. 376 00:17:27,784 --> 00:17:28,584 [Reagan] That's fair, 377 00:17:28,634 --> 00:17:30,184 [Reagan] and it's worth taking seriously. 378 00:17:30,434 --> 00:17:33,584 [Reagan] She's the only Republican senator running in a state Harris carried. 379 00:17:33,884 --> 00:17:35,434 [Reagan] That's a structural disadvantage, 380 00:17:35,684 --> 00:17:38,084 [Reagan] but she has operated in hostile terrain before. 381 00:17:38,884 --> 00:17:41,034 [Speaker 4] Prediction markets are not ballots. 382 00:17:41,334 --> 00:17:43,334 [Speaker 4] Someone remind the forecasters of that. 383 00:17:43,534 --> 00:17:44,334 [Reagan] I'll send a memo. 384 00:17:44,634 --> 00:17:46,884 [Speaker 4] The four-seat math is real. 385 00:17:47,184 --> 00:17:48,484 [Speaker 4] Democrats need Maine. 386 00:17:48,670 --> 00:17:48,770 [Reagan] Mm-hmm. 387 00:17:48,770 --> 00:17:49,770 [Speaker 4] North Carolina, 388 00:17:50,070 --> 00:17:51,520 [Speaker 4] Ohio or Alaska, 389 00:17:51,820 --> 00:17:53,970 [Speaker 4] and then a miracle somewhere like Iowa. 390 00:17:54,220 --> 00:17:56,620 [Speaker 4] That's a lot of simultaneous wins. 391 00:17:56,970 --> 00:18:05,270 [Reagan] It is, and the NPR Marist poll showed 61% of Democrats are very enthusiastic to vote versus 53% of Republicans. 392 00:18:05,570 --> 00:18:09,220 [Reagan] That enthusiasm gap is real, and Republicans cannot wish it away. 393 00:18:09,820 --> 00:18:13,120 [Speaker 4] Acknowledged. But June ratings don't win elections. 394 00:18:13,470 --> 00:18:14,820 [Speaker 4] November ballots do. 395 00:18:14,846 --> 00:18:14,996 [Speaker 4] Two. 396 00:18:15,396 --> 00:18:24,096 [Speaker 4] Republicans still hold fifty-three seats; the structural majority is intact; what happens between now and the fall—candidate execution, 397 00:18:24,596 --> 00:18:25,296 [Speaker 4] GOTV, 398 00:18:25,596 --> 00:18:28,146 [Speaker 4] the economic environment—that's what matters. 399 00:18:28,646 --> 00:18:30,346 [Reagan] The lesson I take out of all of this: 400 00:18:30,546 --> 00:18:32,296 [Reagan] don't hand a seat away in a primary. 401 00:18:32,796 --> 00:18:37,646 [Reagan] The map is hard enough without nominating candidates who start ten points behind where they should be. 402 00:18:38,096 --> 00:18:39,846 [Speaker 4] You know what nobody wants to say: 403 00:18:40,196 --> 00:18:41,146 [Speaker 4] the map shifted. 404 00:18:41,182 --> 00:18:41,832 [Speaker 4] Did fast. 405 00:18:42,132 --> 00:18:44,832 [Speaker 4] Republicans know it. That's why the money is moving. 406 00:18:45,082 --> 00:18:47,782 [Speaker 4] The question is whether the candidates catch up. 407 00:18:48,182 --> 00:18:49,832 [Speaker 4] Five months is a long time, 408 00:18:49,932 --> 00:18:51,432 [Speaker 4] but it is not infinite. 409 00:18:56,990 --> 00:18:57,490 [Rush Lindell] Look, 410 00:18:57,740 --> 00:18:59,390 [Rush Lindell] we covered a lot of ground today: 411 00:18:59,790 --> 00:19:01,190 [Rush Lindell] the Cook rating shift, 412 00:19:01,440 --> 00:19:03,190 [Rush Lindell] the Zombie Comeback Tour, 413 00:19:03,690 --> 00:19:05,940 [Rush Lindell] Sullivan's polling ceiling in Alaska, 414 00:19:06,340 --> 00:19:07,840 [Rush Lindell] but here's where I land: 415 00:19:08,390 --> 00:19:11,940 [Rush Lindell] Republicans are not watching this map closely enough. 416 00:19:12,140 --> 00:19:13,690 [Reagan] And that's the real takeaway. 417 00:19:14,390 --> 00:19:22,040 [Reagan] June forecasts are snapshots, not verdicts. But snapshots can become trends fast when candidate quality is the underlying problem. 418 00:19:22,440 --> 00:19:25,190 [Rush Lindell] North Carolina is the clearest proof of that. 419 00:19:25,620 --> 00:19:28,620 [Speaker 4] Michael Whatley isn't losing because of the environment, 420 00:19:29,170 --> 00:19:33,520 [Speaker 4] he's losing because Roy Cooper has won statewide six times. 421 00:19:33,970 --> 00:19:37,770 [Reagan] Candidate quality is structural; you can't add by your way out of it, 422 00:19:37,920 --> 00:19:40,870 [Reagan] and that Iowa reservation signal someone knows it. 423 00:19:41,170 --> 00:19:42,970 [Speaker 4] Someone definitely knows it. 424 00:19:43,370 --> 00:19:43,970 [Reagan] Absolutely. 425 00:19:44,520 --> 00:19:49,020 [Speaker 4] If today's breakdown helped you think through what's actually happening on this map, 426 00:19:49,370 --> 00:19:49,770 [Speaker 4] subscribe, 427 00:19:50,320 --> 00:19:51,570 [Speaker 4] leave a five star review, 428 00:19:51,820 --> 00:19:53,820 [Speaker 4] and tell somebody who needs to hear it. 429 00:19:53,662 --> 00:19:53,862 [Rush Lindell] Hear it. 430 00:19:54,312 --> 00:19:56,012 [Rush Lindell] New episodes every weekday. 431 00:19:56,212 --> 00:19:57,312 [Reagan] Thanks for being here. 432 00:19:57,512 --> 00:19:58,112 [Reagan] We'll see you tomorrow. 433 00:19:58,462 --> 00:19:59,412 [Rush Lindell] Stay sharp.